Baker Mayfield Now Favored to Win Offensive Rookie of the Year

• Baker Mayfield is now listed as the favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
• Does Mayfield’s performance warrant these short odds?
• Which rookie presents the best value to win the award?

It had been 635 long days in Cleveland since the Browns won their last game.

And when rookie QB Baker Mayfield entered the game Thursday night, down 14-0 late in the second quarter, it appeared the wait for a win would go on.

But Mayfield led a remarkable comeback and the Browns went on to win 21-17.

After becoming an instant star from the performance, he now has the best odds of winning the 2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Once Week 3 is complete, we’ll have an update to our 2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds Tracker.

Mayfield’s Odds Get a Lot Shorter After Debut

Replacing injured starter Tyrod Taylor, who’d gone 4/14 for 19 yards to start the game, Mayfield’s presence and decisiveness was immediately felt throughout FirstEnergy Stadium. Mayfield was accurate in his throws and finished 17/23 for 201 yards.

The win and performance saw his odds shorten from +1600 on September 18, to +150 afterwards. He’s now in line with fellow rookie QB Sam Darnold’s odds at +200.

Do Mayfield’s OROY Odds Deserve to be So Short?

The drastic shortening in odds does seem a little extreme, considering Mayfield has played in about a half hour of regular season football and has yet to throw a touchdown.

He also failed to win the starting job out of training camp, compared to someone like Sam Darnold, who began the season as QB1 in New York.

To win the award, Mayfield will need to be starting and despite his strong showing, Head Coach Hue Jackson has said the team’s Week 4 starting QB has yet to be decided and won’t be announced until Monday.

But with Taylor still in concussion protocol and the groundswell of support to move on to Mayfield full-time, it would seem inevitable his time is now.

We Always Overreact with Quarterbacks

Mayfield’s shortening in odds, while quick, are very comparable to Darnold’s.

Darnold was trading at average odds of +1500 back on August 6, before shortening to +590 August 22 as he impressed in training camp. After his 16/21, 198 yard and 2 TD/1 INT game in a Week 1 win over the Lions, his average odds were cut to as low as +115.

.@JimmyVaccaro says South Point took a $5,000 bet on #Browns to win the AFC at 50-1.

Someone believes in Baker Mayfield.

— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkesESPN) September 22, 2018

The football world was quick to annoint Darnold the next best thing after Week 1, and he’s quickly come back down to earth in throwing only one TD compared to four INTs in two subsequent losses. Could Baker suffer a similar fate if he remains the starter?

Mayfield Looks Good Value to Win OROY

Not to be a prisoner of the moment, but Mayfield looked more than worthy of being the first-overall pick and looks good value to win the 2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.

The Browns have a solid defense and with Mayfield under center, look to have a functional offense as well.

Hue Jackson sees the talent of Baker Mayfield. Do you? pic.twitter.com/45d70CsYjJ

— 92.3 The Fan (@923TheFan) September 22, 2018

When you look at the other contenders consider this: Darnold just lost to Mayfield, Saquon Barkley plays behind a terrible OL with the Giants, and Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman split time in Denver.

Additionally, Allen’s chances in Buffalo look slim, and the Patriots are always rotating who gets the bulk of the carries in their backfield, which could hamper Sony Michel’s chances.

Best Bet: Baker Mayfield +150