Joe Burrow’s NFL MVP Odds Are +600 Ahead of MNF; Is He Worth a Bet?
- Bengals’ QB Joe Burrow has +600 NFL MVP odds ahead of Monday Night Football
- Burrow will line up against Josh Allen, who’s a top-3 candidate
- Read below to see if Burrow is a good bet to win his first MVP title
He’s already proven he’s no ordinary Joe.
But can a couple of standout performances to end the year lift Joe “Cool” Burrow into MVP Joe?
That’s the opportunity in front of the Bengals’ 3rd-year pivot heading into Monday Night Football in Week 17. After what could probably be described as a Super Bowl hangover, Burrow has led Cincinnati to seven straight wins and a clinched playoff berth.
His play has also vaulted him into the middle of the 2023 NFL MVP odds, looking up at only Patrick Mahomes on the leaderboard.
As he lines up against the Buffalo Bills as a 1-point underdog in the Bills vs Bengals picks — the current top seed in the AFC, featuring top-3 MVP candidate Josh Allen — is now the time to bet on the Bengals’ pivot?
Odds to Win 2022-23 NFL MVP
| Player | Odds to Win NFL MVP |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | -550 |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | +600 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +1000 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | +1000 |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | +7000 |
| Tyreek Hill (MIA) | +25000 |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | +25000 |
| Kirk Cousins (MIN) | +30000 |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | +50000 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | +50000 |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | +50000 |
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Joe Burrow MVP Case
It’s easy to forget how difficult the beginning of the season was. The Bengals started 0-2, and Burrow had thrown three TD’s to four interceptions and was sacked 13 times.
His steadying presence and explosive playmaking changed all that. Cincinnati won four of their next six to get to 4-4, before taking off on their current 7-game fun run.
Joe Burrow has 2⃣2⃣ consecutive games with a passing TD 🙌
🎥: @Bengalspic.twitter.com/pVOmOMgLSR
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) December 24, 2022
Included in that stretch were wins over the Kansas City Chiefs (and top MVP candidate Pat Mahomes), and playoff-bound Tampa Bay. They also knocked off teams with winning records like the Tennessee Titans, and last week’s road win in New England.
Against the Pats,Burrow went 40-for-52 for 375 yards, with a three TD passes against two interceptions. In his last 10 starts, Burrow has thrown for at least two TD’s in eight of them, throwing three or more majors five times.
On the year, he’s second to Mahomes in passing yards with 4,260 and TD passes with 34. Burrow is third in completion percentage (69.0), and after taking all those sacks in two games, Burrow has now been sacked 26 times in the next 13 games. Given average protection, he’s been devastating.
Burrow During Bengals’ 7-Game Win Streak
| Opponent | Passing Yards | Completion % | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 375 | 76.9% | 3 | 2 |
| Buccaneers | 200 | 69.2% | 4 | 1 |
| Browns | 239 | 54.6% | 2 | 1 |
| Chiefs | 286 | 80.7% | 2 | 0 |
| Titans | 270 | 59.5% | 1 | 0 |
| Steelers | 355 | 61.5% | 4 | 2 |
| Panthers | 206 | 78.6% | 1 | 0 |
Should You Wager on Burrow Now?
As we’re working to get the best value, the thinking here is if Burrow is able to upend the visiting Bills, his MVP stock would be at its highest, with value shrining as his odds will undoubtedly shorten.
A Cincinnati win would also give Burrow victories over both of his tightest MVP foes in the same season.
The truth is, since starting out on fire, Josh Allen has really come back to earth, and his performances have been uneven down the home stretch.
Josh Allen sure does throw a lot of interceptions… pic.twitter.com/xBTQSIvT37
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) December 24, 2022
Buffalo has won six straight, but they’ve had to go the distance to get wins over lesser opponents like Cleveland and Detroit. They’ve also held on for one-possession wins against the Jets and Dolphins.
If Allen were to light up the Bengals and get the win, that could lengthen Burrow’s odds, but I don’t think that would vault Allen past Burrow.
I’d take the wager now, and not risk a Cincinnati win — if Burrow is your pick to take the MVP.
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What’s The Best NFL MVP Bet?
In such a tight race, it’s hard to imagine Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts can work his way back into the conversation, as he’s missed two games with a shoulder injury, with no indication yet if he’s a go in Week 18.
There’s just one game to go, and Philly still needs to lock up the top seed, but not at their star QB’s health.
That leaves it to Burrow vs Mahomes.
Statistically, Mahomes is having the superior statistical year, while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt, one of three QBs in the NFL to cross the 8+ yard plateau.
Perhaps its the more memorable Mahomes plays, but he’s also been able to adjust his game on the fly, easing up on the deep ball, while carving teams in the intermediate and not missing a beat.
Burrow currently presents good value — but it’s still Mahomes’ to lose.
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Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
