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Joey Bosa, a Preseason DPOY Favorite, Sees His Odds Fade to +6600; Is There Value?

Joey Bosa signing a football
Despite enjoying a strong outing in the Los Angeles Chargers' narrow 30-24 win over Indianapolis in Week 1, Joey Bosa has tumbled to a +6600 longshot to win the 2019 NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds at Bovada. Photo by Thomson200 (Wikipedia) [CC License].
  • Bosa’s DPOY odds faded to +6600 despite a strong Week 1 performance against Indianapolis
  • Bosa opened the season just behind the DPOY favorites at +2200 odds
  • Past winners dominate the top of the DPOY odds, led by two-time defending winner Aaron Donald at +200

It was a steady start to the 2019 NFL season for Joey Bosa. With eight tackles and one sack, Bosa played a key role in the Los Angeles Chargers’ 30-24 overtime win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1.

But, despite posting solid stats, Bosa has since tumbled in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds and now sits as a +6600 longshot at Bovada.

Odds to Win 2019 NFL Defensive Player of the Year

Team Odds at Bovada*
Aaron Donald +200
Khalil Mack +450
Von Miller +800
JJ Watt +1000
Myles Garrett +1000
Demarcus Lawrence +1800
Joey Bosa +6600

*Odds taken on 09/12/19

Bosa Tumbles Despite Steady Week 1 Performance

Bosa enjoyed a solid season debut, but the same cannot be said about the Chargers’ defense, as a whole. Los Angeles squandered a 24-9 third-quarter lead, allowing the Colts to tie the game in the final minute of regulation before salvaging the win in the extra frame.

The loss of safety Derwin James indefinitely due to injury also impacts the Los Angeles defense. However, with multiple options to fill that void, the Chargers appear capable of weathering that storm, as they did last season, when Bosa was sidelined for nine games with a lower-body injury.

Bosa’s Durability Remains a Concern

So, why the sudden massive tumble in Bosa’s odds, from +2200 prior to Week 1 to his current position at +6600?

While Bosa opens 2019 with a clean bill of health, durability remains an ongoing concern. In addition to making just seven appearances last season, the now-24-year-old was limited to just 12 outings in his rookie campaign in 2016.

However, there is plenty to like about Bosa as he begins his fourth NFL campaign. The third-overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft demonstrated what he could do in his lone full NFL season, racking up 12.5 sacks and 70 total tackles in 16 regular-season contests in 2017.

Bosa also has the benefit of being part of one of the most feared pass rushing duos in the NFL, alongside veteran Melvin Ingram, who opened his season with a sack and a pair of solo tackles.

Past Winners Dominate Top of DPOY Odds

A lot of things need to go right for Bosa to return to contention in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds. He faces stiff competition at the top of the odds board, which remains dominated by a trio of defensive studs, who have combined to win the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award in six of the past seven years.

AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year: Past Winners

Year Driver
2018 Aaron Donald – Los Angeles Rams
2017 Aaron Donald – Los Angeles Rams
2016 Khalil Mack – Oakland Raiders
2015 JJ Watt – Houston Texans
2014 JJ Watt – Houston Texans
2013 Luke Kuechly – Carolina Panthers
2013 JJ Watt – Houston Texans

The Rams’ Aaron Donald remains a clear +200 favorite to claim the honor for a third straight year after recording one sack in LA’s narrow 30-27 win over Carolina. Khalil Mack proved to be a workhorse in Chicago’s 10-3 loss to Green Bay, seeing action on 57 pass-rush snaps and making five solo tackles. He sits second at +450.

A three-time Defensive Player of the Year winner, Houston’s JJ Watt remains an intriguing +1000 bet despite failing to record at least one tackle or quarterback hit for the first time in his career in Monday night’s 30-28 loss in New Orleans.

Intangibles Key to Bosa’s Chances

Faced with the task of outshining rivals who receive such wide media attention, Bosa will likely need to produce career-best numbers. In addition, Bosa will likely get a big boost if the Chargers can equal or top last season’s 12-4 record, and maybe get a little fan support in games at their temporary home at Dignity Health Sports Park, which has typically been packed by hordes of visiting team supporters.

While that remains a tall order, it is tough to pass up odds this long on such a talented defender.

Pick: Bosa to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year (+6600)

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