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Lamar Jackon’s NFL MVP Odds Get a Big Boost After Beating Patriots, Rodgers’ Odds Fall After Week 9

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NFL Football

Nov 5, 2019 · 1:51 PM PST

Lamar Jackson running towards the end zone.
Lamar Jackson has shot up the board to +350 in terms of the NFL's MVP odds. Photo by Office of the Maryland Governor (Wikimedia)
  • Aaron Rodgers was the favorite on the NFL MVP odds entering Week 9.
  • Russell Wilson has ascended into the favorite’s roll after a five-touchdown effort.
  • Christian McCaffrey offers good value as he’s on pace for nearly 2500 total yards.

The race for the NFL MVP award just got a little more interesting as the Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson-led thrashing of the New England Patriots has shot him up the board to a top contender

He was at +900 entering the week but his NFL MVP odds are now all the way down to +350 after the big win.

2019 NFL MVP Odds

Player Pos Team Odds
Russell Wilson QB SEA +275
Lamar Jackson QB BAL +350
Deshaun Watson QB HOU +350
Aaron Rodgers QB GB +600
Christian McCaffrey RB CAR +600
Patrick Mahomes QB KC +1200
Jimmy Garoppolo QB SF +1200
Tom Brady QB NE +2000
Drew Brees QB NO +2500
Dak Prescott QB DAL +3300

Odds taken November 5

Jackson’s Stock Rises After Win Over Patriots

Jackson was immediately viewed as an MVP candidate a five-touchdown, 330-yard effort in Week 1. However, he had mostly fallen back to the pack in subsequent weeks.

He’s now again among the frontrunners after compiling 224 total yards and three touchdowns, handing the Patriots their first loss of the season.

Jackson’s passing numbers alone don’t look great as he has just 1813 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. Subtract the five touchdown performance and he’s averaging about a touchdown pass per game. However, he’s also compiled 637 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns.

When you total the two, you get 2450 total yards with 17 touchdowns, and that gets him into the conversation. The question is can he keep this up as he’s been a bit uneven this season.

Rodgers Slips Following Loss

A popular pick to win the award entering the week as the Packers were riding a four-game winning streak, Rodgers has now fallen back to the pack after a disappointing loss in Los Angeles to the Chargers. He was the favorite at +225 but he’s now down to +600.

Rodgers had just 161 passing yards and one touchdown, which invoked memories of his early-season struggles in this offense. Were his two breakout games against the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders merely good showings against bad defense? Or was the sloppy effort against the Chargers the aberration?

He’s got some tough games coming up against the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers in the next two weeks, so he could fall further down the board here.

Wilson Is the Favorite

As Rodgers has faltered, it’s Russell Wilson who has moved into the MVP role. His odds have shortened from +275 to +225 following a five-touchdown effort against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Wilson now leads the league with 22 passing touchdowns, passer rating and QBR.

While Lamar Jackson gets lots of credit for his running game, Wilson has also done well in that regard, rushing for 203 yards and three touchdowns. When you total his numbers, he has 2708 total yards with 25 touchdowns and just one interception. That puts him on pace for 4814 total yards and 44 touchdowns.

If Wilson keeps this up, the award is his.

What’s the Best Bet?

Wilson is the obvious choice right now but I’d take a flier on Christian McCaffrey at +600. The Carolina Panthers running back is on pace for 2488 total yards along with 26 touchdowns. His workload is monstrous as he’s on pace for 330 carries and 84 receptions.

If Wilson is to slip-up in any way, I think it’s McCaffrey who’ll get the nod as the NFL’s MVP in 2019.

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