Mac Jones the New Favorite in NFL OROY Odds After Trevor Lawrence Struggles Week 1
- Trevor Lawrence threw for 332 yards in his NFL debut to go along with three touchdowns and three interceptions
- Mac Jones went 29-for-39 with 281 yards and a TD in his first start for the Patriots; he took over top spot in the 2021 Offensive Rookie of the year odds
- See the updated Offensive Rookie of the Year odds below
Just because you’re a first overall pick doesn’t mean you’ll have immediate success in the NFL.
After dropping his Week 1 matchup with the Houston Texans 37-21, Trevor Lawrence continued an odd trend for QBs drafted first overall. The last 14 first overall picks are now 0-13-1 in their NFL debuts.
That streak-extending loss, and his mixed results Sunday, led to a change atop the 2021 Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
2021 Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mac Jones, NE | +300 |
| Trevor Lawrence, JAX | +500 |
| Trey Lance, SF | +700 |
| Justin Fields, CHI | +750 |
| Zach Wilson, NYJ | +750 |
| Najee Harris, PIT | +800 |
| Kyle Pitts, ATL | +1500 |
| DeVonta Smith, PHI | +1500 |
| Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | +1500 |
| Jaylen Waddle, MIA | +1900 |
| Javonte Williams, DEN | +2600 |
| Trey Sermon, SF | +2600 |
| Elijah Moore, NYJ | +3800 |
| Rondale Moore, ARZ | +6000 |
| Rashod Bateman, BAL | +6000 |
Odds as of September 13th from FanDuel
Lawrence had been the leader since the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds opened in April. FanDuel was the first book to knock him out of the top spot and insert Mac Jones. Jones was second but not by much on the last update.
Despite a pedestrian opener, Najee Harris’ odds actually rose slightly. Kyle Pitts meanwhile, who also failed to put up big numbers against the Eagles, saw his odds drop off.
Lawrence, Jones Lose in Different Ways
Trevor Lawrence was seeing early returns on the field to start his NFL career. While his first professional drive ended in a punt, he would’ve scored on his next two if not for a Josh Lambo missed field goal.
Then there was a sizable swoon.
Welcome to the pros, Trevor Lawrence. Vernon Hargreaves, the bringer of death, gets pick two. pic.twitter.com/cRYpG73RFH
— Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) September 12, 2021
After his TD pass to Chris Manhertz the Jags’ following drives went as follows: interception, interception, punt, punt, punt. Lawrence would hit DJ Chark for a touchdown after his third interception of the afternoon, sandwiched by two punts.
A touchdown with five seconds to go at least made Lawrence’s stat line more palatable.
Trevor Lawrence vs Mac Jones: Week 1 Comparison
| 28/51 | Comp/Att | 29/39 |
| 54.9% | Comp % | 74.4% |
| 332 | Yards | 281 |
| 3 | TD | 1 |
| 3 | INT | 0 |
| 1 | Sack | 1 |
| 70.1 | Rating | 102.6 |
Jones’ stat line is cleaner; but it doesn’t have the TD numbers of Lawrence’s.
The Patriots did what they’re famous for on Sunday: they put Jones in the best position to succeed.
In NFL history, there have been 61 rookie QBs to attempt at least 30 passes in their first-career start.
No one has ever completed 70% of their passes.
Until tonight.
Mac Jones completed 74% of his throws, which according to @Stathead, is the best mark among rookie QBs.
— Mark Daniels (@ByMarkDaniels) September 13, 2021
Not to be hyperbolic, but the Pats’ offense looked eerily similar to how Tom Brady used to run it. There were short drops, quick throws, screens and safe decisions. It also helped that Jones got 100 yards out of Damien Harris on the ground. Lawrence got 78 yards total in ground support.
The fact the Patriots lost can’t be held to the rookie either. Driving with a chance to take the lead late in the fourth, Harris fumbled deep in Dolphin’s territory. Jones never got a second chance.
Receivers Make Mark in OROY Chase
Some rookie receivers had big days of their own on Sunday. DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and Ja’Marr Chase all played key roles for their offenses. They also all scored touchdowns.
So while some may think this is exclusively a QB award, that trio may have something to say about it.
Week 1 Rookie WR Performances
| Player | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TD | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | 7 | 5 | 101 | 1 | 20.2 |
| DeVonta Smith, PHI | 8 | 6 | 71 | 1 | 11.8 |
| Jaylen Waddle, MIA | 6 | 4 | 61 | 1 | 15.3 |
Chase had the best final line of the rookies, despite being second in targets and receptions. He also got a small boost in attention when Tee Higgins’ afternoon ended early.
Waddle finished second on the Dolphins in terms of targets, behind DaVante Parker. Smith, though, emerged as the Eagles’ top receiver. He saw a team-high eight targets and led the way in catches and yards.
Lawrence Not About to Lose Ground
While Mac Jones turned in the more consistent performance, he’s not the best bet. With a heavy running game and strong defense, he may win the most games, but it will be largely unspectacular.
So in terms of QBs, Lawrence would be the guy to back. Especially with Justin Fields and Trey Lance only playing a handful of snaps per game.
But if Week 1 is any indication, the play is DeVonta Smith. Having gelled with Jalen Hurts, Smith is at the top of Philly’s depth chart.
Chase and Waddle have deeper offenses to contend with week-in, week-out. So while there may be some hiccups in Philly, Smith will get more chances to run as the top dog.
The Pick: DeVonta Smith (+1500)
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Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
