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Patriots vs Bills Odds, Lines, Spread, and Picks NFL Week 18

George Nassios

by George Nassios in NFL Football

Jan 7, 2023 · 8:00 AM PST

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17)
Jan 2, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) leads his teammates onto the field before the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots on Sunday, January 8th with plenty on the line
  • Buffalo are 7-point favorites and will see their first action since Damar Hamlin’s terrifying injury
  • More of the Patriots vs Bills odds are below, plus our best bet and prediction

Football has really taken a back seat for the Buffalo Bills (12-3, 7-7-1 ATS) over the past week while praying and rallying around their teammate Damar Hamlin, who suffered a frightening injury against the Bengals on Monday Night Football. Read on for an analysis of the Patriots vs Bills.

In the past few days, it’s been nothing but positive news regarding Hamlin’s road to recovery as he’s now breathing on his own and progressing in the right direction after a very worrisome few days.

The Bills return to the field on Sunday, January 8th in the final week of the regular season to host the Patriots (8-8, 7-8-1 ATS) in a game with huge implications for both sides. With a 5-1 home record this season, the Bills are 7-point favorites for this contest. More Patriots vs Bills odds, plus our best bet can be found below.

Patriots vs Bills Odds

Team Spread Total Moneyline
New England Patriots +7 (-110) O 43.5 (-110) +260
Buffalo Bills -7 (-110) U 43.5 (-110) -335

Odds as of January 7th at Caesars Sportsbook. See the available Caesars Sportsbook promo code for the NFL here.

All eyes will be on this game in the NFL Week 18 betting lines. Not only will football fans be tuned in to see how the Bills respond to the harrowing incident surrounding their teammate, but this contest will have massive playoff implications for both sides.

Since the NFL made the decision that the Bills-Bengals game would not be replayed, a Buffalo win in this game would allow them to claim one of the top two AFC seeds. For the Patriots, it’s fairly simple, beat Buffalo and they clinch a wild-card playoff spot.

Kickoff goes at 1 pm ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York with the game time temperatures expected to be right around freezing. There should be limited wind for this afternoon’s tilt and a mix of sun and clouds. Jim Nantz and Tony Romo will have the call on CBS for the 1 pm contest that will be shown in most states.

How Will Bills Respond After Hamlin Injury?

It’s tough to know what Buffalo’s frame of mind will be entering this contest. Obviously, these are professional football players and they have a job to do, but it’s impossible to judge the mental state of each athlete on this Bills squad.

They can take a source of motivation from the incredible progress that Hamlin has made in the last few days, topped off by him giving them a message over facetime on Friday.

It would be an amazing story if the team used this as a source of motivation to run the table the rest of the way. They’re still a top contender in the Super Bowl odds and are pretty healthy at this point.

Other than the obvious with Hamlin being out, Micah Hyde and Von Miller are still missing on the defensive side of the ball. Notwithstanding those absences, almost every other regular is expected to go.

The Bills own a 5-1 record at home this season, with the only loss coming in that crazy finish to the Vikings in mid-November. However, they have not done well covering as home favorites in the NFL odds, failing to cover in each of their last four home contests.

Patriots Win & Their In

It’s a very simple formula for the Pats this week. Win and you’re in. They defeated the Dolphins 23-21 in Week 17 after two excruciating tough losses.

In Week 15, there was that, I-can’t-believe-what-I’m-seeing-moment when Chandler Jones took a Jakobi Meyers lateral to the house for a walk-off TD loss against the Raiders.

Following that, running back Rhamondre Stevenson lost a fumble at the Cincinnati Bengals’ 8-yard line with 59 seconds remaining as the Pats suffered another devastating loss on Christmas Eve.

All told, this Patriots team deserves better than their record shows, but now they’ll have to go to Buffalo which has been a house of horrors for them lately.

Patriots vs Bills Recent Results

Date Away-Home Moneyline Against The Spread Over/Under
12/01/2022 BUF 24 – NE 10 BIL BIL Under
01/15/2022 NE 17 – BUF 47 BIL BIL Over
12/26/2021 BUF 33 – NE 21 BIL BIL Over
12/06/2021 NE 14 – BUF 10 PAT PAT Under
12/28/2020 BUF 38 – NE 9 BIL BIL Under

Look, these aren’t the same teams that faced off in the playoffs last year, when Buffalo wiped the floor with New England, 47-17 in a game where the Bills didn’t need to punt once. Still, in their last five head-to-head matchups, including once last month, the Bills have won by double digits four times.

Patriots vs Bills Pick & Prediction

Led by one of the contenders in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds throughout the season, Matthew Judon, the Patriots’ defense will be tasked with keeping this game close.

Unfortunately for New England, despite the fact they have a top-10 defense, that is canceled out by an offense that ranks 26th in the league.

With a stadium that should be even more supportive than usual for the Bills and given their recent run of success against Bill Belichick’s squad, our prediction is that Buffalo balls out for Hamlin on Sunday afternoon, so take the chalk and the points in the Patriots vs Bills odds in Week 18.

  • Pick: Buffalo Bills -7 (-110), 1 Unit
  • 2022 NFL Season Picks Record: 3-11, -8.33 units

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