New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers – Odds, Lines, Spread, and Picks NFL Week 2
- Despite Week 1 loss, Patriots favored on the road vs Steelers
- Week 1 Record: 0-1; Overall: 0-1 ATS, -1 unit
- See the Patriots vs Steelers picks and odds ahead of their Week 2 clash, and our pick below
What do the bookies know that we don’t?
It’s a legitimate question to ask as the New England Patriots — drubbed in a 20-7 Week 1 loss to the Dolphins — are somehow 2-point road favorites in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers were impressive going into Cincinnati and bouncing the defending AFC Champions 23-20 in OT, in what may already been the wildest game we see all year.
While they have injury problems of their own (more on that below), they Steelers should be in good shape for their home opener.
It all gets underway Sunday from Acrisure Stadium at 1pm ET, in a game that can be seen live on CBS.
Patriots vs Steelers Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | -129 | -2 (-110) | Ov 40 (-114) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +105 | +2 (-110) | Un 40 (-106) |
Odds as of September 16th from Barstool Sporstbook.
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New England’s odds actually lengthened from an opening of a single point to two points.
As you may have expected, the NFL Betting Trends skew wildly for the home team. A whopping 76% of the bets placed are for the Steelers to cover the spread (at the time a 1.5-point spread), with 80% expecting Pittsburgh to win outright.
The total has been shaved from a totals as high as 42.5 to its current figure of 40. The UNDER is getting hammered on this one to the tune of 82%.
It’s expected to be sunny with some cloud cover, with a high near 82 degrees at kickoff.
Patriots Betting Outlook
Perhaps the best news for Patriots fans was Mac Jones’ back injury doesn’t seem to be too serious, and he looks on track to start Sunday.
It’s believed the injury happened when Jones was drilled on a second-quarter Byron Jones blitz, resulting in a fumble and Melvin Ingram scoop and score for the defense.
brandon jones + melvin ingram = 6 pic.twitter.com/IvBjUPUDHs
— josh houtz (@houtz) September 11, 2022
Jones finished the game 21-for-30 for 213 yards with one touchdown pass and an interception.
What could really help the second-year pivot would be some life in the ground game, which was effectively shut down in Miami.
The Pats were held to 3.5 yards per carry and just 78 yards for the entire contest.
Mac Jones trying to get everyone in order and then gets sawed in half like a magician's assistant pic.twitter.com/ie97RCrqVj
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 15, 2022
On top of Jones’ interception and fumble, Nelson Agholor also coughed up the ball, as the Patriots lost the turnover battle 3-0.
New England’s defense was stout against the run, though, holding the Dolphins to 65 yards on 23 carries.
Steelers Betting Outlook
Back at home, it will be a weird site for fans, with no Ben Roethlisberger shadow over the pivot position — the first time since 2004.
The Mitch Trubisky era started just about as expected in Cincy.
He offered a clean, albeit unspectacular outing, going 21-for-38 for 194 yards. He didn’t have a turnover.
The first touchdown of the season belongs to MINKAH FITZPATRICK! 🗣 pic.twitter.com/CjisHavX3d
— PFF PIT Steelers (@PFF_Steelers) September 11, 2022
Of course, Trubisky’s got a pretty good defense that appears to be back after a poor previous season.
They did much of the heavy lifting in this one, including an opening pass pick-six from Minkah Fitzpatrick, who also blocked an extra-point try to send the game to OT.
The Steelers hounded Bengals’ QB Joe Burrow all Week 1, compiling seven sacks, while living in the backfield with nine tackles for loss.
The only bad news was the late-fourth quarter injury to TJ Watt, which forced him to leave the game. He suffered a pectoral muscle injury, and will be out for Sunday, but the team expects Watt to be back this season, though no timetable has been set. He was a wrecking ball in Cincinnati, recording a sack and three TFL before having to leave.
Tests today on Steelers’ RB Najee Harris’ foot injury came back negative and there is a belief that, according to a source, he “should be good to go” Sunday vs. the Patriots.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 12, 2022
Second-year back Najee Harris also left the Cincinnati game with a foot injury, but could play against the Pats. Harris was bottled up before leaving the Week 1 tilt, running for just 23 yards on 10 carries.
Patriots vs Steelers Pick
Including their loss to the Dolphins, the Patriots are now 0-4 against the spread in their last four road games.
Pittsburgh has a quirky 0-4 ATS mark in their last four Week 2 games, and they are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven against teams with a losing record, but their defense can be a difference maker.
On top of holding Joe Mixon to 82 yards on 27 totes last game, the Steelers picked off Burrow four times, and enjoyed a +5 turnover advantage. Losing Watt is significant, but there are playmakers at every level on this D that should be making plays against the Pats.
Trubisky is expected to game manage again, against an offense that put up just seven points last game, so also look at the under totals.
The UNDER has hit in the last four Pittsburgh home games, as well as the Patriots’ last four September games.
That’s a nice side bet to what appears to be a gift of a line.
The Pick:
- Steelers +2 (-110); 1.5 units to win 1.86 units
- UNDER 40 (-106) .5 units to win 0.47 units
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Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
