- The New York Giants have the fourth-worst average Super Bowl Odds among NFC teams
- A quarterback controversy looms between an aging Eli Manning and rookie Daniel Jones
- Is there a chance the Giants are worth their long odds?
A month after the NFL Draft, and things haven’t gotten much better for the New York Giants’ Super Bowl odds.
While most books don’t see them as the longest Super Bowl shot in their own division, their prospects aren’t great.
But Big Blue seems to think they’ve found Eli Manning’s heir apparent, which could bode well for their future. After all, if he looks exactly like Eli Manning, Daniel Jones is bound to win two Super Bowls… right?
This is a photo of Giants QBs Eli Manning and Daniel Jones.
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) May 21, 2019
Could the prophecy come true in year one?
Super Bowl 54 Odds
|Team||Super Bowl 54 Odds at Bovada|
|New England Patriots||+700|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+800|
|New Orleans Saints||+900|
|Los Angeles Rams||+1100|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+1600|
|Green Bay Packers||+1800|
|New York Giants||+8000|
*Odds taken 05/24/19. Click on the link in the table above to see odds for all teams.
In terms of the whole NFL, there are six teams that are bigger Super Bowl long shots than the New York Giants. Only two of those teams are playing with a starting quarterback not in his first or second season.
The Giants are even looking up at Sam Darnold and the Jets, who come in at +7000.
Our Super Bowl tracker isn’t offering much more hope, where the Bengals, Dolphins, and Bills round out the six teams with worse odds.
Life Without OBJ Begins Now for New York Giants
There were two big offseason moves the Giants made on offense: drafting Jones and trading Odell Beckham Jr.
Even though Giants fans wanted to run Jones out of town on draft night, he’s the QB of the future. In an ideal world, he gets a year to learn behind his dad… er …Eli.
The loss of Beckham Jr. will hurt immensely and immediately.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs Golden Tate 2016-18 Averages
To be clear, replacing OBJ is not a one man job. Tate will be leaning on Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram as well. But both are young, and Engram was banged up a bit in 2018.
Shepard did get six games to shine with Beckham Jr. hurt in 2017. His two best games combined for a 22 catch, 281-yard, one touchdown line. But he crossed 60 yards just once in the other four games.
Sterling Shepard 2018
Target rate: 17%
Catches on target rate: 69%
Target rate: 23%
Catches on target rate: 44%
Sterling Shepard definitely benefitted a lot from OBJ. It’s not a huge sample size but Shep has a lot to prove this year
— Bobby Skinner (@BobbySkinnerNFL) May 23, 2019
Some of their production was attributed to having OBJ on the field, and an aging Tate won’t draw that same attention.
Pressure is on Offensive Line and Saquon Barkley
Last year, the O-Line didn’t help Big Blue’s passing game.
They came up with the 25th-worst pass protection grade per Pro Football Focus. And their run-blocking? It was 18th after Saquon Barkley graded out as the fourth-best running back in the NFL.
— Giants Carb Crush (@GiantsCarbCrush) May 24, 2019
Kevin Zeitler will help. He was the best guard in pass protection last year, and nearly top 20 in run blocking. So too, will Mike Remmers. From there you need to hope Will Hernandez progresses and Nate Solder doesn’t regress.
— PirateLife Football (@PirateLifeFF) May 20, 2019
The unit needs to be elite if this team is going to make the playoffs however.
New York Giants Not the Long Shot to Bet
The Giants offense has pieces that will run hot for stretches, but they need a season-long effort.
Their defensive backfield is an ever-changing picture, and if it proves to be a weakness, it’ll keep them looking up at the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.
Don’t expect a championship swan song from Eli or a storybook start from Daniel Jones.
If you’re looking for long shots in the NFC, good health will mean good things for the Atlanta Falcons’ defense and the Minnesota Vikings as a whole. In the AFC? The Jaguars can be had at +3300 if you believe in the magic of Nick Foles.
But don’t expect a championship swan song from Eli or a storybook start from Daniel Jones.
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