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New York Jets 2019 Playoff Odds Improve from +300 to +260 After Encouraging Preseason Performances by Darnold

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Updated Mar 26, 2020 · 3:25 PM PDT

Jets' Sam Darnold
Could Sam Darnold lead the New York Jets back to the playoffs in the AFC? Photo by slgckgc (flickr) [CC License].
  • The New York Jets currently have the 10th-best odds in the AFC to make the NFL Playoffs
  • A big reason has been the play of Sam Darnold, who has been good in limited action
  • Can the Jets make the playoffs for the first time since 2010?

It has been a long time since the New York Jets made the playoffs.

Back in 2010, they were led by Mark Sanchez, and a ferocious defense that led them to a second-straight AFC Championship game.

Since then, they’ve had just one winning season, going 10-6 in Todd Bowles’ first year.

Now Adam Gase is the head coach. The hope is that he can take Sam Darnold and give the Jets a top-flight offense.

And take them back to the playoffs.

Odds to Make 2019 NFL Playoffs

Team 2018 Record NFL Playoff Odds
New England Patriots 11-5 -650
Kansas City Chiefs 12-4 -325
Los Angeles Chargers
12-4 -190
Indianapolis Colts 10-6 -190
Cleveland Browns 7-8-1 -120
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-6-1 -105
Houston Texans 11-5 +155
Baltimore Ravens 10-6 +165
Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11 +230
Tennessee Titans 9-7 +275
New York Jets 4-12 +275
Buffalo Bills 6-10 +300
Denver Broncos 6-10 +350
Cincinnati Bengals 6-10 +500
Oakland Raiders 4-12 +600
Miami Dolphins 7-9 +950

*Odds taken 08/22/2019

In 2019 playoff odds the Jets have the 10th-best average odds to make the playoffs. They’ve been intertwined with the Titans since May, and sit ahead of the Broncos, Bills, Bengals, Raiders and Dolphins.

Of course, that leaves plenty of other AFC teams ahead of them, including the juggernaut Patriots in the AFC East.

Sam Darnold vs Second Year AFC Starters

QB Team COMP/ATT Yards TD/INT Rating
Josh Rosen MIA 23/38 293 0/1 73.7
Josh Allen BUF 15/22 168 0/0 90.7
Lamar Jackson BAL 10/16 117 1/0 105.5
Sam Darnold NYJ 9/12 114 1/0 131.9
Baker Mayfield CLE 5/6 77 1/0 158.3

*Stats prior to Preseason Week 3

When looking at the preseason stats of Darnold and his classmates from the 2018 NFL Draft, he trends closer to Mayfield and Jackson. The trio has received usage closer to that of NFL veterans rather than sophomores.

The interesting thing is that there isn’t much recent precedent for preseason usage of sophomore starting QBs. Going back to the 2015 preseason, entrenched sophomores Derek Carr and Blake Bortles each had over 50 attempts. Bortles had a rating of 93.8.

Neither team made the playoffs.

In 2016, Marcus Mariota only finished the preseason with 31 attempts and a 104.1 rating. The Titans would finish 9-7.

And last year Patrick Mahomes (43 attempts) and Deshaun Watson (15 attempts) received significantly different usage.

So in most cases there’s some positive development. Even if it doesn’t mean playoffs.

Can Le’Veon Bell Help New York Jets Make Playoffs?

Bell certainly thinks so. And he doesn’t seem worried about not appearing in the preseason for the New York Jets.

I don’t think me getting four plays in the preseason is gonna help me in Week 1 for the game. It’s gonna be me just getting ready for playing and practice. When the game comes, then I’ll be ready.

While Bell isn’t concerned about not playing in over a year, maybe he should be.

After spending five years in Pittsburgh and one year away, Bell is in a brand new system. He can learn it half speed in practice, but according to Reggie Bush, nothing replaces game reps.

YouTube video

Sorting Through the AFC Playoff Picture

The New York Jets likely have to take one of the two Wild Card spots.

Even without Melvin Gordon and Derwin James, the Chargers should be in line for one of those spots. After that, New York likely has to contend with the Jaguars, Colts, Bills, and at least one of the Browns, Steelers or Ravens.

Fortunately, they play the AFC North this year, share a division with the Bills, and face the Jaguars. That gives them a chance to play those teams head-to-head.

Will the New York Jets Make the Playoffs?

The biggest hurdle New York faces is an early bye week in Week 4. The Jets have four divisional games afterward, the entire NFC East and most of the AFC North.

If they’re in the playoff race down the stretch, it will be a long ride for key players.

New York’s offense will be vastly improved from the 27th-ranked unit they were in 2018. Their defense should still be a top-15 unit, but suspensions and injuries have taken their toll.

But the schedule is their enemy in 2019. It’ll cause the Jets to come up just short.

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