NFL Betting – Brady’s Back as Pats Visit Lowly Browns

New England Patriots (-10, 46.5 o/u) at Cleveland Browns

It’s the moment all New England Patriots’ (3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS) fans have been waiting for, the return of the chosen one, “Tom Terrific”, the other kid in the prodigal son allegory: Tom Brady.

Brady couldn’t be coming back to a better situation. His team is in control of the AFC East, once again, and he gets to feast on the lowly Cleveland Browns (0-4, ATS) in his return this Sunday (1:00 PM Eastern at FirstEnergy Stadium).

That’s a slight overstatement. Brady could be coming back to an undefeated team, but the team put in its first dud of the season last week, getting blanked by the Bills (16-0) with Jacoby Brissett under center. That won’t cause much concern. The defense (15.3 points per game, fourth overall) looked solid and the offense will be completely revamped in Week 5.

Brady is looking to continue where he left off in 2015, when he tossed for 4,770 yards, 36 touchdowns, and just seven interceptions. Brady masked a lot of the flaws on the Pats’ o-line last year by getting the ball out of his hands quickly (2.26 seconds from snap to pass, second in the league, per ProFootballFocus). Expect more quick releases on Sunday even though the o-line is playing better and Cleveland’s pass rush isn’t much to fear.

What you shouldn’t expect is for Brady to go easy on the lackluster Browns. The pivot is 5-0 in his career against teams that are 0-4 or worse, racking up 18 TDs to just three picks.

For the benefit of the team in the long-term, all the New England faithful will be eager to see Brady rekindle his chemistry with Rob Gronkowski. The tight end has not been a factor in the offense to date. Part of that is due to injury, but he hasn’t been utilized by the backup QBs when on the field, either (one catch for 11 yards on the season).

Luckily for Belichick and co. offseason acquisition Martellus Bennett (15 receptions, 247 yards, one touchdown) has gotten huge production out of the tight end spot. On the ground, LeGarrette Blount (88 carries, 352 yards, four touchdowns) has taken the pressure off of the backup QBs. He should only see bigger holes now that defenses have to devote most of their resources to containing Brady.

Defensive resources is not something Cleveland has in abundance these days. The team is 27th in the league in scoring defense (28.8 PPG) and hasn’t given up fewer than 25 yet this season.

Thanks to a half-decent offense, they’ve been more competitive than their record suggests, holding a big lead early against Baltimore, forcing Miami to OT, and getting buried by a blown call against Washington last week. That said, the team is down to third-string rookie Cody Kessler (467 yards, one touchdown, one interception) at QB, and Belichick is notoriously tough on young pivots.

Cleveland actually leads the league in rushing through four weeks, averaging 149.3 rushing yards per game. But you can be sure the Hooded One will be game planning to stop Isaiah Crowell (61 car, 394 yards, three touchdowns) and whatever Wildcat formations Hue Jackson cooks up, forcing the Browns’ rookie QB to beat them through the air.

Ten is a lot of points to lay on the road. But this might be a matchup between the best and worst teams in the league, and New England doesn’t tend to play down to the level of its competition. They’re also 4-2 ATS in their last six against the Browns, while Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in their last five, overall.

Pick: Patriots -10.

Photo credit: Keith Allison (Flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/].