Upcoming Match-ups

NFL Betting – Is Washington Good? Philly Will Help us Find Out!

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 44.5 o/u) at Washington Redskins 

“Winners of three straight” usually implies that a team is rolling, but when that phrase precedes the Washington Redskins (3-2, 1-2 Home), I’m not sure that is the case. This week may provide more clarity in unwrapping the enigma that is Washington, when they welcome the Philadelphia Eagles (3-1, 1-1 Road) to FedEx Field on Sunday afternoon (1:00 PM Eastern).

After opening the year 0-2, Washington has rattled off wins over the Giants, Browns, and Ravens to get right back in the thick off the NFC East race. But these wins have largely come by the “Skins” of their teeth, which is why the team has a -7 point differential. Allowing opponents to rack up 392 yards a game is not a good place to start, but at least the Washington D has been able to come up with a few timely plays, with six of their eight takeaways coming in the second half.

Besides, Washington didn’t win their division last year on the strength of its defense; it was led by Kirk Cousins and the offense (while also capitalizing on an easy schedule). But so far this offense has yet to find a consistent rhythm. Washington is dead-last in red zone percentage, largely because they fail to stick with their ground game down around the goal line. Despite completing just 29.4-percent of their passes inside opponents’ ten-yard line, Washington continues to trust Cousins and take to the air.

That’s really been the story of this offense all season though. Washington has more success running the ball than one would expect, given that their backfield consists of Matt Jones and Chris Thompson. Yet, even though they average a respectable 4.1 yards per carry, Washington ranks 29th in attempts per game. They’re going to live and die with Cousins’ arm, and that’s a scary proposition for bettors, because it’s wildly unpredictable.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, has played very balanced football, ranking in the top half of the league in DVOA for offense, defense, and special teams. The Eagles were on their way to a 4-0 start before a Ryan Matthews fumble (their first turnover of the year) cost them the game against the Lions. Both Matthews and the team as a whole will be looking to make up for it this week in Philly’s first divisional game.

It’s worth noting that the Eagles will enter this game with a new starting right tackle, after Lane Johnson’s ten-game suspension for PEDs was upheld. Rookie Halapoulivaati Vaitai will make his first start, meaning Carson Wentz could be seeing a lot of Ryan Kerrigan in his face in this game.

There’s reason to be a little concerned over backing Philly in this spot: Washington has covered in six of the last eight games between these two teams. But I like that the line has stayed under three here; the Eagles by a field goal is easy to envision. Washington is 30th against the run and won’t be able to stop Philly’s tenth-ranked rushing attack.

Plus, Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against rookie QBs.

Pick: Philadelphia (-2.5).


Photo credit: Keith Allison (Flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/].

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