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NFL Free Agency Odds: Where Will AP Land?

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

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As per usual, that blasted franchise tag has robbed us of so much entertainment heading into the NFL free-agency period, which commences March 9th. To no one’s shock, Le’Veon Bell (Steelers), Kawann Short (Panthers), Kirk Cousins (Washington), and Chandler Jones (Cardinals) were franchised. More surprisingly, Melvin Ingram (Chargers) and Jason Pierre-Paul (Giants) were also tagged.

Even with those names off the market, and a new deal for Eric Berry, there is still some fun to be had. There are still multiple players available via free agency who possess the talent to dramatically change an organization. Which team(s) will shell out the necessary funds to lure in these prized free agents? Find out here, as I list the top-five unrestricted free agents and their likeliest landing spots.


1. Calais Campbell, DL

The Arizona Cardinals have some tough decisions to make this offseason. The team has already flicked over the first domino, though, applying the franchise tag to Chandler Jones. Now Arizona is forced to decide which of their other impending free agents they value the most. The Cardinals have just under $19 million in cap space, and Calais Campbell, Tony Jefferson, AQ Shipley, DJ Swearinger, Frostee Rucker, and Marcus Cooper are all set to become free agents.

Campbell, a two-time Pro Bowler, is clearly the most valuable of the bunch. The 30-year-old is a good interior pass-rusher, compiling 29 sacks over his last four seasons, and is a force against the run. Campbell is the defensive lineman that every team covets, and he will be shown the money, Rod Tidwell-style, this offseason.

This doesn’t bode well for Arizona; I don’t like their odds of winning a bidding war. The career Cardinal may want to give Arizona a hometown discount. But he’d be turning down a lot of money in the process.

The more likely outcome is that Campbell can’t resist those dollar signs. Oakland and Washington ranked 23rd and 24th, respectively, against the run last season, and each could use an interior pass-rusher to complement their edge rushers. Expect Tampa Bay, which also struggled against the run, to enter the chase, too. None of the three will have any issues offering Campbell big-money. If the nine-year veteran has a championship on his mind, both the Falcons and Broncos are in need of a disruptive interior presence.

Odds Calais Campbell signs with …

Oakland Raiders: 5/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5/1
Washington: 11/2
Arizona Cardinals: 7/1
Atlanta Falcons: 7/1
Denver Broncos: 9/1
FIELD: 5/1

2. Alshon Jeffery, WR

Alshon Jeffery walking the sidelines
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The Bears have opted to let Alshon Jeffery test the open market, declining to place the franchise tag on their top wide receiver. This comes as a bit of a surprise, especially after the rest of Chicago’s receiving corps struggled so badly last season. Jeffery is not on par with the likes of Julio Jones and Antonio Brown, but he is worthy of the WR1 designation. The former second-round pick is a large target who excels in jump-ball scenarios. And he’s also just 27 years old.

When news broke that Jeffery would hit the market, a lot of ears perked up in Philadelphia and Tennessee. The former may miss out on the top two receivers in the draft (Clemson’s Mike Williams and Western Michigan’s Corey Davis), while the latter has other holes they’d love to address with the fifth-overall pick. Jeffery would fill the glaring hole both have at receiver, and he’d provide a safety net for their young quarterbacks. Of the two, the Eagles would be more enticing to Jeffery; Doug Pederson’s offense pushes the ball down the field more often. Expect the 49ers and Chargers to take a long look at the 6’4″ pass-catcher, too.

Odds Alshon Jeffery signs with …

Philadelphia Eagles: 5/2
Tennessee Titans: 9/2
Chicago Bears: 6/1
Los Angeles Chargers: 6/1
San Francisco 49ers: 6/1
FIELD: 8/1

3. Brandon Williams, DT

If you are looking for a run-stuffing monster on your defensive front, look no further than Williams. The 335-pound nose tackle has spent his first four years in the league eating up blockers. The Ravens D has ranked in the top-five in yards per carry since he arrived, with the exception of an injury-riddled 2015 season.

By Jeffrey Beall (Wikimedia Commons)

Although Baltimore did not place the franchise tag on Williams, it was not due to lack of interest in re-signing the 28-year-old. The Ravens are currently working on a way to bring the Missouri native back to Baltimore. However, with only about $14 million in cap space, Ozzie Newsome may not be able to match opposing offers. Looking to Damon “Snacks” Harrison as precedent, Williams should command somewhere around $12 million per season on the open market. There are moves Baltimore can make to free up some space – cut Elvis Dumervil and/or Mike Wallace – but they may believe they have other viable interior options, such as Michael Pierce.

Several teams would be happy to pay the defensive tackle, including: Oakland, Washington, and San Francisco. They all struggled to stop the run last year, and all have money to spend. This would be a great first step for John Lynch in trying to bring his 49ers back to respectability on the defensive side of the ball. Williams would also fill a big-hole for Denver and Houston. The Broncos saw their run defense slip last season, and need a big body to play nose tackle. The Texans will have a void at nose tackle, as well, with Vince Wilfork likely to retire. The four-year pro may be a little too pricey for them, though.

Odds Brandon Williams signs with …

San Francisco 49ers: 11/2
Oakland Raiders: 11/2
Washington: 6/1
Baltimore Ravens: 8/1
Denver Broncos: 10/1
Houston Texans: 11/1
FIELD: 5/2

4. Dont’a Hightower, LB

At this point, we are used to seeing the Patriots play hardball with their best players. Bill Belichick has proven that he doesn’t need highly-paid players to win, as he’ll mold everyone else’s trash into his treasure. But this move is a little surprising. After trading away Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins, the feeling was that Hightower was the key defender they wanted to retain. After all, the linebacker did make the two most important plays in their last two Super Bowl victories. Yet, here we are with Hightower ready to test the free-agent waters.

The former first-round pick has established himself as one of the best blitzing inside linebackers in the league, and can bang at the line of scrimmage with ball-carriers. From a purely financial perspective, it makes sense that the Patriots wouldn’t tag the soon-to-be 27-year-old, as all linebackers are grouped together when it comes to the franchise tag and edge rushers make a lot more money than inside backers. But I don’t expect the Patriots to just give up on retaining the leader of their defense.

If the two cannot reach an agreement, suitors will be quick to pounce. The Colts have a lot of money to spend; while acquiring protection for Andrew Luck should be their main priority, new general manager Chris Ballard will want to supply his defensive-minded coach with some talent on that side of the ball, too. The Dolphins need to fix their 30th-ranked run defense, and could certainly use another player who can pressure the passer. Not to mention, nothing would make them happier than helping New England get worse.

Odds Dont’a Hightower signs with …

New England Patriots: 7/3
Indianapolis Colts: 7/2
Miami Dolphins: 6/1
Washington: 9/1
Chicago Bears: 10/1
FIELD: 11/2

5. Adrian Peterson, RB

By Joe Bielawa (Wikimedia Commons)

Did anyone really think the Vikings would pick up Adrian Peterson’s $18-million option for 2017? Even if the soon-to-be 32-year-old had rushed for 1,500 yards last season, that cap hit is far too big for a running back. The fact that he only appeared in three games and averaged 1.9 yards per carry just made it a foregone conclusion.

AP is one of the riskiest free agents on the market. Running backs over the age of 30 generally fizzle out fast, especially ones who have carried the ball as often as Peterson (2,418 career carries). But there’s no question that some view the former first-round pick as an exception to the rule. And let’s not forget what happened the last time we doubted him.

There is mutual interest in Peterson remaining a Viking at a more reasonable price. We also know the Giants have captured the attention of the 2,000-yard club member.

Jerry Jones has also voiced his interest in pairing the vet with Ezekiel Elliott in the Cowboys backfield. It would be a move that makes no sense to anyone … but Jerry. Both the Cowboys and Patriots would present Peterson with a great opportunity to seize that championship he desires, though.

Odds Adrian Peterson signs with …

Minnesota Vikings: 3/1
New York Giants: 3/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 13/2
Dallas Cowboys: 9/1
New England Patriots: 10/1
FIELD: 9/2

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