NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 5: Lions in a Prime Bounce-Back Spot
By Zach Reger in NFL News
Published:
Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season kicked off on Thursday night with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeating the Dallas Cowboys 24-16, leaning on 17 unanswered third-quarter points to erase a 10-7 halftime deficit. The remaining betting slate begins Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET when the Philadelphia Eagles meet the Jacksonville Jaguars in London. The action wraps up with a Monday night 8:15 p.m. ET showdown as the 3-1 Buffalo Bills look to extend their AFC East lead against a 2-2 Los Angeles Rams team fighting to climb out of third place in a highly competitive NFC West.
This weekend features significant early-season jockeying, headlined by multiple pivotal divisional clashes, and it should be a fun one. Below, you will find spreads and an against-the-spread pick for every remaining game on the schedule, plus a detailed analytical breakdown of my three best ATS picks on the board.
NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game
| Matchup | Spread | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars | Jaguars -7.5 | Jaguars -7.5 |
| Cleveland Browns at New York Jets | Jets -2.5 | Jets -2.5 |
| Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers | Bears -1.5 | Bears -1.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins | Bengals -6.5 | Dolphins +6.5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots | Patriots -3.5 | Raiders +3.5 |
| Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints | Vikings -2.5 | Saints +2.5 |
| Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans | Texans -7.5 | Titans +7.5 |
| New York Giants at Washington Commanders | Commanders -3.5 | Commanders -3.5 |
| Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers | Steelers -2.5 | Steelers -2.5 |
| Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers | Broncos -3.5 | Chargers +3.5 |
| Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals | Lions -5.5 | Lions -5.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks | Seahawks -3 | 49ers +3 |
| Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons | Falcons -3 | Ravens +3 |
| Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams | Rams -3 | Bills +3 |
These spreads are sourced from consensus odds, are current as of publication, and remain subject to movement.
Best NFL ATS Picks for Week 5
With 30 teams in action this weekend, finding value against the spread requires identifying sharp divisional underdogs and reliable bounce-back spots. Here are my three most compelling angles on the betting board.
NFL ATS Pick #1: Titans +7.5 vs Texans
Tennessee is a sizeable home divisional underdog, and while the Texans are better on paper, they should not be laying over a touchdown on the road. This matchup has a low 37.5-point total, so scoring should be limited. The Texans have the clearer offensive edge, averaging 21.0 points per game to Tennessee’s 13.2, but the Titans defense has started showing signs of life. They have covered the spread in two of their last three games.
Houston’s defense has not been as dominant as we have seen, and that could change with Demeco Ryans taking over playcalling again, but if the Titans can avoid turnovers and keep the game close, the spread offers a cushion against a lower-scoring script. It is going to be a gross, low-scoring, rainy game in Nashville, and this is one of those plays where you have to trust the situation.
NFL Week 5 Pick: Titans +7.5 (-113)
NFL ATS Pick #2: Commanders -3.5 vs Giants
Washington gets the nod at home as a short favorite. The Commanders have averaged 22.0 points and 314.8 yards per game, compared with 20.0 points and 283.2 yards for the Giants. Washington has also been more careful with the ball, with two turnovers against New York’s five, and holds a 3-2 edge in turnover differential. Those advantages give the home side a path to create separation.
Jayden Daniels is back for the Commanders, and I have not liked what I have seen from the Giants the last couple of weeks on both sides of the ball. Washington has won its last four meetings with New York, and the Giants have not played well on the road. I will take the Commanders to cover the spread in this Week 5 NFC East battle.
NFL Week 5 Pick: Commanders -3.5 (-119)
NFL ATS Pick #3: Lions -5.5 vs Cardinals
The Detroit Lions represent one of the most reliable bounce-back bets in football. After slipping to 2-2, Detroit enters a prime get-right spot. The Lions are 17-2 against the spread after a loss in their last 19 games. I trust this high-octane offense, which is averaging 29.8 points per game. They head to Glendale to face a brutal Arizona Cardinals defense that is giving up 29.3 points per contest.
Arizona’s miserable home form only adds to this massive mismatch, as the Cardinals have dropped eight straight games in their own building. Detroit’s offensive numbers are overwhelming. Quarterback Jared Goff is shredding opposing secondaries for 303.5 passing yards per game with a 108.6 passer rating. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs handles the ground game effortlessly, generating 88.25 rushing yards per game and 4.41 yards per carry. Arizona’s offense, guided by Jacoby Brissett’s 204.5 passing yards per game, has a chance for a great day against Detroit’s secondary, but he has also had some dud games. I do not trust him to keep this one close in what should be a high-scoring game. Back the road favorite with confidence.
NFL Week 5 Pick: Lions -5.5 (-107)
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Zach has been involved in the sports betting industry for three years. After starting to bet on sports in college, Zach was interested in how it can make any game interesting. The trends, line movement, and finding unique angles to predict the outcomes of games captivated Zach to get more involved.
