NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 6: Back This AFC North Home Underdog

Week 6 of the NFL season is already rolling after a thrilling Thursday night opener, where the Denver Broncos defeated the Seattle Seahawks 17-14 in overtime after Seattle forced the extra session with a late rally. Now, bettors turn their attention to the rest of the slate, headlined by pivotal division clashes and dominant unbeatens.

The 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs, currently sitting atop the AFC, look to extend their four-game winning streak against the winless Los Angeles Chargers. Over in the NFC, the 5-0 San Francisco 49ers sit in second place and will look to push their flawless start to six straight victories.

The upcoming action kicks off across the pond on Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET when the Houston Texans visit the Jacksonville Jaguars in London. The week concludes when those undefeated 49ers host the Washington Commanders on Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET. Below, you will find my complete list of current spreads and an against-the-spread pick for every remaining game on the board, along with a detailed breakdown of my three best ATS predictions, which include two home underdogs.

NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game

Spreads are current as of publication via BetMGM and remain subject to movement.

Best NFL ATS Picks for Week 6

I believe finding great value on the spread means identifying where public perception diverges from the actual matchup data. This week, I trust a road favorite, a gritty home underdog, and a resilient home squad to cover their numbers.

NFL ATS Pick #1: Panthers -3.5 vs Eagles

The Carolina Panthers head into Philadelphia laying a short number on the road, a situational spot where I believe they offer tremendous value. The Eagles are depleted, without Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and DeVonta Smith, and face an unusual travel situation after losing in London just a week ago. That leaves Philadelphia short-handed and potentially dealing with the effects of another demanding week on the road.

Those absences strengthen the case for Carolina to control the trenches and dictate the pace. Laying 3.5 points is always a critical number in NFL odds, but I trust the Panthers’ defensive front to generate pressure and force Philadelphia into uncomfortable third-and-long situations. If the Eagles fall behind the chains, they could struggle to sustain drives against Carolina’s aggressive scheme.

I believe laying the -3.5 is the sharp side. Carolina’s offensive scheme is built to exploit defenses and finish drives with touchdowns rather than settling for field goals. Trust the Panthers to march into Philadelphia and secure a victory by at least four.

NFL Week 6 Pick: Panthers -3.5

NFL ATS Pick #2: Browns +3.5 vs Ravens

This AFC North division clash is exactly where I love to grab a home underdog catching the hook. I always look to home underdogs in AFC North matchups, and the Baltimore Ravens travel to Cleveland laying 3.5 points. This game should be defensive and low-scoring, and I trust the Browns’ defensive personnel to muck up the game script and keep this contest within a field goal.

Taking Cleveland +3.5 offers value because getting that half-point over the key number of three is massive in NFL ATS records. The Ravens boast an explosive offensive identity, but the Browns are built specifically to counter that with gap-sound run defense and disciplined edge setting. Cleveland’s defensive front has the strength and discipline to disrupt Baltimore’s timing and force them into crucial red-zone mistakes.

The public often overvalues road favorites in hostile environments, making the Browns an intriguing play. Even if Baltimore manages to pull out a straight-up victory, Cleveland’s defense is fully capable of making this a game.

NFL Week 6 Pick: Browns +3.5

NFL ATS Pick #3: Raiders +5.5 vs Bills

The Buffalo Bills roll into Las Vegas averaging a robust 32.8 points per game, but I believe this 5.5-point spread offers incredible value on the home underdog. Buffalo sits at 4-1, yet laying near a touchdown on the road against a competent 3-2 Raiders squad is a prime letdown spot, especially after their thrilling Monday Night Football victory last week. While Las Vegas has surrendered 29.0 points per game over their last four contests, their offense is built to match Buffalo score for score.

The quarterback duel is fascinating. Buffalo’s Josh Allen commands a 99.6 passer rating with 249.8 passing yards per game, heavily supplemented by James Cook III grinding out 106.4 rushing yards per contest at 5.6 yards per carry. However, Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins is more than holding his own, racking up 253.8 passing yards per game. I trust Cousins to exploit Buffalo’s secondary and keep the chains moving in a high-volume shootout.

Buffalo boasts a 6-1 straight-up record over their last seven road games, but covering 5.5 points against a potent passing attack is an entirely different challenge. This Bills defense cannot stop anyone, and the Raiders have enough talent on the offensive side of the ball to keep this game close. Take the points with the Raiders in Las Vegas.

NFL Week 6 Pick: Raiders +5.5