NFL Week 14: Sunday’s Five Best Bets

Laying some bets during an NFL Sunday has become about as American as apple pie. But wagering your hard-earned money blindly is not going to result in many wins, and losing is about as un-American as borscht. Thankfully, we’ve scoured the moneylines, the spreads, the totals, and all the props to find the closest things we can to locks. Here’s what we have for Week 14 in the NFL.

1) Los Angeles Chargers Beat Washington

THE PLAY: CHARGERS -245 (MONEYLINE)

The result of this entire game boils down to one detail: can Washington’s offensive line protect Kirk Cousins? My answer is no.

Washington could be without both its starting tackles, Trent Williams and Morgan Moses. The former’s right knee cap is unstable and is going to require surgery. The latter is battling through two sprained ankles. Even if they do suit up, which is probably the wrong decision for their long-term health, they will be far from 100-percent. This is horrible news for Kirk Cousins, who has been sacked ten times in the last two weeks by much lesser pass-rushes than what he’ll face Sunday. Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa are arguably the best edge-rushing duo in the NFL, combining for 20 sacks this season.

The one weakness this Charger defense has shown this season is stopping the run. But since the return of inside linebacker Denzel Perryman, the run defense has improved by 16 yards per game.

It’s going to be a long day for the Washington offense, while Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen pick on Bashaud Breeland all day. I prefer sticking with the moneyline here instead of the spread (LA -6), as the Chargers have a knack for allowing their opponents to hang around.

2) Baltimore Ravens Cover the Spread in Pittsburgh

THE PLAY: RAVENS +4.5 (-105)

If you were horrified by the physicality of Week 13’s Monday Night Football clash between the Steelers and Bengals, then you’ll probably want to turn away from this one. But for that same reason, you should also be betting the Ravens to cover this spread.

In a game that features two defenses that play old-school, hit-em-in-the-mouth football, points are going to be awfully hard to come by. Look back at the previous nine regular-season meetings between these two teams in Pittsburgh:

• September 29, 2008: Steelers win 23-20 (OT)
• December 27, 2009: Steelers win 23-20
• October 3, 2010: Ravens win 17-14
• November 6, 2011: Ravens win 23-20
• November 18, 2012: Ravens win 13-10
• October 20, 2013: Steelers win 19-16
• November 2, 2014: Steelers win 43-23
• October 1, 2015: Ravens win 23-20 (OT)
• December 25, 2016: Steelers win 31-27

All but one of those games was decided by four points or fewer. This is what should be expected in a fierce divisional rivalry. While the UNDER on the 44-point total isn’t a bad bet, the spread (Baltimore +4.5) is better.

The Ravens will have to deal with Antonio Brown without their top corner Jimmy Smith, who has been placed on the IR with a ruptured Achilles. But John Harbaugh has always had a masterful plan in place to slow Brown, never leaving the duty up to just one man. In 14 career regular-season games against the Ravens, Brown only has 874 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

This may sound crazy, but the more concerning absence here is JuJu Smith-Schuster. Baltimore is going to force another Steelers receiver to beat them, and I don’t believe Martavis Bryant can be much more than just a deep threat. The Ravens have also been very tough on Ben Roethlisberger, who sports a 16:11 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a passer rating 9.3 points below his career average when playing Baltimore.

If you need more reason to like Baltimore getting 4.5 points, have a look at their record against the spread in divisional games since 2015: 10-4-1 (second-best in the league in that time).

3) Browns and Packers Go OVER in a Shootout

THE PLAY: OVER 40 (-108)

The two quarterbacks in this game are going to ensure we hit the over in Cleveland on Sunday. But that’s not because they’re going to play well, rather these two will commit horrible turnovers that result in points for the other team. DeShone Kizer leads the NFL with 15 interceptions and sits third with five lost fumbles. Brett Hundley has thrown 30-plus passes three times this season; six of his eight interceptions have come in those games.

But why would Mike McCarthy have Hundley throw the ball that much? Because no Packer is going to be able to stop Josh Gordon. In his first regular-season game since 2014, Gordon totaled 76 of his 85 yards against Chargers corner Casey Hayward, who has not allowed any WR to surpass 80 yards against him this season, even though he’s had to deal with Dez Bryant, Brandin Cooks, Demaryius Thomas, Michael Crabtree, Odell Beckham Jr, Alshon Jeffery, and Tyreek Hill. The Browns’ sole gameplan for the rest of the season is to feed Gordon, who had 11 targets in Week 13. Even with a healthy secondary, the Packers would be in a lot of trouble trying to slow Gordon. Without Davon House, it’s going to be a huge day for the 26-year-old.

With Gordon putting up points for the Browns offense, Hundley will be forced to take to the air, which will be both good and bad. Good because Cleveland’s secondary has given up 23 touchdown passes this season (27th), and Green Bay has a plethora of dangerous receivers. But bad because he’s bound to commit some turnovers with the extra responsibility.

If you need some trends to help you out, Green Bay has hit the OVER in four of its last five, and Cleveland has hit the OVER in three of its last five.

4) The Texans Take Care of Business vs the 49ers

THE PLAY: TEXANS -3 (EVEN)

The Houston Texans have now lost five of their last six, and have turned the ball over a whopping 14 times in those games. The main culprit has been Tom Savage, who has thrown six interceptions and lost seven fumbles (league-high) in just six starts this year. Fortunately, Savage gets a 49er defense that has only generated 13 takeaways (25th).

At this point, Savage is no longer fighting to earn a job as a starter, but clawing to even be recognized as a viable backup in the league. Against a 49er secondary that’s struggled to cover anyone, Savage has a golden opportunity to simply throw the ball in DeAndre Hopkins’ direction and let the star receiver do the rest.

The San Francisco offense looked better in Jimmy Garoppolo’s first start last week, but they couldn’t find the endzone. This came against a Bears team that’s getting no help from its offense and appears to have lost the glimmer of hope that came with Mitchell Trubisky’s NFL debut. The 49ers will be forced to put more than 15 points on the board this week, and I don’t believe Garoppolo has enough of an understanding of Kyle Shanahan’s offense to take advantage of an extremely banged up Texans defense.

5) Oakland Raiders Upset the Chiefs in Arrowhead

THE PLAY: RAIDERS +175 (MONEYLINE)

In our upset of the week, I’m pointing to the Raiders to do something they haven’t since 2012: walk out of Arrowhead Stadium with a win. Taking the four points with Oakland is a good bet, too, but the moneyline provides an opportunity to rake in a much better return.

The Kansas City Chiefs have done a complete 180 from how they opened the season. After starting the season 5-0 with wins over the Patriots, Eagles, and Chargers, they have now lost four straight and six of their last seven. Alex Smith has cooled off (prior to last week) and Kareem Hunt has been a non-factor since Week 8, averaging just 59 yards from scrimmage per game. Smith broke out of his slump last week against the Jets, throwing for 366 yards and four touchdowns. But the Chiefs still lost because the defense no-showed, surrendering 38 points to Josh McCown and co.

The Chiefs defense will struggle again this week. Although Amari Cooper will not be playing for Oakland, they will have Michael Crabtree back from his one-game suspension. Just about any decent receiver would give the Chiefs troubles this week, as they have suspended Marcus Peters for the week due to his strange actions against the Jets.

It finally looks like Derek Carr’s back is fully healthy, and the Raider offense is starting to gel as a result. Oakland has scored at least 21 points in four of its last six, compared to just twice through the first six weeks. I trust Carr and Crabtree to take advantage of a weak defense more than I trust Alex Smith.