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NFL Week 4 ATS Picks: Mahomes Brings High-Powered Chiefs’ Offense to Motown

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 2, 2020 · 12:03 PM PDT

Patrick Mahomes celebrating
Patrick Mahomes has been lights out since being named starter for the Chiefs at the start of the 2018 season. Photo from @AroundTheNFL (Twitter).
  • Chiefs travel to Motown trying to hand Lions their first loss
  • Can Rams win in double digits against lowly Bucs?
  • ATS Week 3 Record: 2-2; Overall 2019 Record: 7-5

The highs were high, and the lows were low when assessing what happened with our Week 3 bets.

Sure, watching Daniel Jones come through was electric, and man, the Colts are seemingly worth a wager each week, but we took our lumps for a) believing in Joe Flacco and a Broncos defense that has literally no bite; and b) going a week early predicting the Lions’ inevitable demise versus a team so dinged up Nelson Agholor was Carson Wentz’s top option in the crunch (note: that’s not good).

This week, we’re getting back to basics. Through three weeks, the Chiefs, Colts and Rams are all undefeated against the spread. Shouldn’t we lean on them until we’re shown otherwise? Let’s not overthink, stop the mediocrity and start stacking W’s with our Week 4 picks.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions

Team Spread Odds
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (-104)
Detroit Lions +6.5 (-114)

*Odds from 26/09/19

Analysis: This is the brilliance of Patrick Mahomes: he’s so unreal at the quarterback position, what he does on a weekly basis seems almost ordinary, and we’ve literally just watched him in 20 starts.  Oh have those starts been spectacular. He’s thrown for 300+ yards in 13 of those contests, an NFL record. He’s guiding an offense that’s currently gone where no offense has gone before, rattling off at least 25 points in 25 straight games.

This season, he’s gone Golden State on the opposition. One minute, it’s a close game. The next, he’s detonated a defence with 28 straight points in a second quarter evisceration of the Raiders, or dropping 23 in a frame against the Ravens.

The reigning NFL MVP is the first player in league history to have at least 350 yards passing and three touchdown passes without an interception in three straight games.  Put up 363 yards passing in Motown and he’ll break Kurt Warner’s record for yards passing through four games.

Meanwhile, the Lions have smoke-and-mirrored their way to an undefeated mark through three games, including their most impressive W on the year, going into Philly to beat the Eagles. To their credit, they forced three fumbles, recovering two.

The Lions offense should be able to move the ball on the ground, where KC is surrendering over six yards a pop, but it won’t matter, as they’ll be playing catch up.

The pick: Chiefs (-6.5)

Oakland Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts

Team Spread Odds
Oakland Raiders +7.0 (-114)
Indianapolis Colts -7.0 (-104)

Analysis: If you’ve been on the Colts the last three weeks, then you’re familiar with the new betting darlings of the NFL. No Andrew Luck hasn’t been a problem for the mighty Horseshoe, who’ve covered in every game this season and should be able to put in work against a Raiders’ team that’s best described as beleaguered right now. They have lost back-to-back games by 18 or more points, the first time that’s happened in the same season since 2012.

Meanwhile, the Colts keep pounding the drum, using Marlon Mack as the fulcrum of an offense that grinds the opposition down. He’s third in the league in rushing, averaging 99.7 yards rushing a game, leading an Indy attack averaging 4.9 yards a tote. Oakland got gashed for 211 yards on the ground last week by the Vikings, and the last time Mack met the Raiders, he hung 132 yards on them with two scores.

Offensively, the Colts have scored at least 23 points in nine straight home games. They’ll need every point they can get, because their defense has started slowly this year, ranking 20th against the run and 13th against the pass and will likely be playing without safety Malik Hooker, tackling machine Darius Leonard and corner Pierre Dasir.

The pick: Colts (-7)

Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons

Team Spread Odds
Tennessee Titans +4.0 (-109)
Atlanta Falcons -4.0 (-109)

Analysis: Much like I’ve made a pact with myself to ever siding with Joe Flacco on a bet, I can confidently tell you to go against Titans QB Marcus Mariota every chance you get. He leads the NFL’s 28th-ranked passing attack, posting a paltry 194.7 yards per game. Keeping him upright would probably help, as he’s been sacked a league-best 17 times through three games, including a season-high nine times in a loss to the Jaguars.

This isn’t exactly a vote of confidence for the Falcons, who have looked inconsistent in starting out 1-2 this season. But in last week’s loss to the Colts, they finally looked like the potent offense that has been on hangover ode since the Super Bowl loss to the Patriots in 2017.

Matt Ryan went 22-of-23 for 216 yards and three majors in the second half. Another encouraging sign was Devonta Freeman’s 88 yards rushing, his best total since a December game in 2017 against the Bucs.

Atlanta’s eighth-ranked defense, including 12th against the run, will be tested by Derrick Henry. The Titans’ hulking running back has a league-high 865 yards rushing in his last eight games, scoring a TD in seven of those games.

That would be lethal, if the Titans could mix in some passing to keep defenses honest.

The pick: Falcons (-4)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams

Team Spread Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.0 (-109)
Los Angeles Rams -9.0 (-109)

Analysis: To be honest, while Tampa Bay was building a massive 28-10 halftime lead over the Giants, I had no doubt that taking the G-men and the points would pay off – without ever seeing New York QB Daniel Jones play any meaningful snaps. Ever. This is the power of Jameis Winston as your starting QB.

This week, Winston and the Bucs should get exposed when they head west, having to deal with one of the NFL’s best defenses in the Rams.

The Rams’ D establishes themselves early, having gone eight straight regular season games without allowing more than three points in first quarter. Led by reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, consistent pressure up front has helped a tremendous pass defense that has allowed just four plays longer than 20 yards, and none longer than 40 – both tops in the NFL. They’ve also just given up one TD pass.

There is a little cause for concern. The Rams’ once-explosive offense is middling to start the year, likely from Todd Gurley’s mysterious left knee injury that’s limited his touches and taken away some of the explosiveness that made him the league’s premier back. And while the Bucs post a decent 14th-ranked defense, they do boast the NFL’s top sack artist in Shaq Barrett, who already has eight in three games, who could cause trouble for the home team.

Couple that with this Thursday’s showdown with division foe Seattle, and you could forgive the Rams for lacking focus in this one, with a lot of points to cover.

Then again, when in doubt, remember to go against Winston.

The pick: Rams (-9)

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