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NFL Week 3 ATS Picks: Does Jones Awaken the Giants in Tampa Bay?

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 2, 2020 · 10:51 AM PDT

Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones gets his first career start in the NFL against the Bucs in Tampa Bay. Photo by @TheScore
  • Giants bench Eli Manning in favor of rookie Daniel Jones
  • Can Packers’ offense stay consistent all game?
  • ATS Week 2 Record: 2-2; Overall 2019 Record: 5-3

Got a little ahead of myself thinking the Ravens were ready to pour it on the Cardinals.

Ditto thinking the Chargers could just do the winning thing on the road like good teams do.

Still, 2-2 is nothing to sneer at. We’ll take it. Heading into Week 3, it’s time to identify the frauds staring you right in the face.

We start in the state of Florida, where the changing of the G-Men’s guard is officially happening.

New York Giants vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Team Spread
New York Giants +6.5 (-114)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (-104)

*Odds from 19/09/19

The fraud: favoring Jameis Winston in any game

Not to rain on the Buccaneers’ parade, but they took down a Panthers’ team on a short week, with a less-than-average Cam Newton under center. The only difference between Jameis Winston in Week 1 and 2 were the three interceptions in a loss to the 49ers, versus a clean sheet in Carolina. Still, he was just 16-for-25 for 208 yards and a touchdown in the win.

Perhaps a dose of the Giants will wake up Mike Evans, who has just six catches and 89 yards on the year. In three games against Big Blue, he has 19 grabs for 337 yards and a two TDs.

Meanwhile, the Giants trot out their top pick in this year’s draft, quarterback Daniel Jones, with the hope that his play will keep Eli Manning rocking a headset instead of a helmet for the rest of the season. He inherits an offense that actually isn’t that bad – they’re sixth in yards per game, but they’re averaging just 15.5 points a contest (26th) in starting out 0-2.

Jones used the preseason to prove he was legit, after New York took much flak selecting him sixth overall, with Dwayne Haskins still on the board, and a bevy of other talent.

Bottom line: the unknown and the points is always a better option than Winston.

The pick: Giants +6.5 (-114)

Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers

Team Spread
Denver Broncos +7.5 (-114)
Green Bay Packers -7.5 (-104)

The fraud: Mike McCarthy’s system was holding Aaron Rodgers back

It’s early, but shouldn’t one of the best quarterbacks in his era be outstanding, no matter who’s coaching?

The last time Rodgers was on any kind of a passing tear was Weeks 5-6 last season, when he put together back-to-back 400+ yard passing games. Since then, he’s gone under 275 yards passing in eight of his last 10 games, and has barely broken the 200-yard threshold in each of his two starts this year. The Pack currently sit in 23rd in offensive DVOA.

The good news is they are a perfect 5-0-1 all-time at home against the Broncos, and have scored at least 30 points in each win.

New head coach Matt LaFleur has himself a pretty stout defense, and Aaron Jones just racked up 116 yards and a TD on 23 totes last week, which was much needed as Green Bay went scoreless after building a 21-0 lead and barely hung on to beat the Vikings.

Speaking of great, Vic Fangio is unquestionably one of the great defensive minds in football, so explain how his defense – one that possesses both Von Miller and Bradley Chubb – have a combined zero sacks on the season?

While that is alarming, the Broncos are still sporting the 4th-best passing yards allowed per game at 189.5, but they have been leaking in the run game, tied for 9th-worst, surrendering over 125 yards a contest.

I think Joe Flacco was yay close to being the fraud here, as his play can only be described as uninspiring. But he has kept his team in games. Expect Fangio’s defense to actually find the range in Lambeau. That’s an awful lot of points the Broncos have been given to work with.

The pick: Broncos +7.5 (-114)

Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts

Team Spread
Atlanta Falcons +1.5 (-109)
Indianapolis Colts -1.5 (-109)

The fraud: The Falcons as a team to be reckoned with in the NFC

Only the decimated receiving corps of the Eagles – leaving Neslon Agholor as a main threat – is how the Falcons were able to contain Philadelphia. Even then, the Dirty Birds were in the throes of tossing away another winnable game in the crunch, before Matt Ryan hit Julio Jones, who hit the nitrous to put the game away.

Ryan has a pair of 300-yard passing games to start the year, but even with that, and tying for fourth in the league with five TD passes to start the year, the team has looked choppy on offense. An inability to run the football (they rank 28th) isn’t helping their 30th-place rank in DVOA.

What isn’t a fraud? The gamers out of Indy. No Andrew Luck is no problem for the Colts, who have played two extremely competitive games and should actually by 2-0 with ease, but Adam Vinatieri stopped making kicks. The Colts’ defense is second in the league with eight sacks and hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 20 consecutive regular-season games, trailing just New Orleans (24).

And Jacoby Brissett might not be the best quarterback in the NFL, but he is definitely nowhere near the worst. He hasn’t broken 200 yards passing, and it likely won’t happen in Week 3 as he faces the league’s top ranked pass defense. But no matter: the Colts churn out 185 yards a game on the ground (2nd in the NFL), and they’ll control the grounds here. A couple of Vinatieri makes, and they win going away.

The pick: Colts -1.5 (-109)

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles

Team Spread
Detroit Lions +5.5 (-109)
Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 (-109)

The fraud: The Lions are still undefeated

I’d suggest it’s the luck of the Lions that delivered a win last week, but they never have any luck. How about we just give it to Detroit’s Week 2 opponent, the Chargers, who reverted to their baffling road-killing selves, giving away a win in Motown that included a goal line fumble, a missed FG, and a Phil Rivers INT to put things on ice.

Matt Stafford is 2-0 in his last two starts against Philly, throwing eight TDs and no interceptions in the process, and he helms the eighth-rated offense in the NFL, which is averaging 303 pass yards a contest to start the year. Emerging stud receiver Kenny Golladay matched his career best with eight grabs in Week 2, finishing with 117 yards receiving and a TD in his second consecutive game.

But they’ve tied the Cardinals in a game they should have lost, after blowing an 18-point fourth quarter lead, and we’ve detailed LA’s generosity as visitors. They’re going up against one of the few teams on the short list that has the talent to compete with the Patriots this year, and they’ll be at home after an ugly loss on Sunday night.

QB Carson Wentz thrives at the Linc, throwing for 3,300 yards with 30 touchdowns and just six picks while posting a 111.1 rating in his last 12 home games. It’s likely that he won’t have Alshon Jeffrey and DeSean Jackson to throw to in this one again, but trust head coach Doug Pederson will find a way to get something out of his running game, which is averaging just 86 yards per game out of the gate, and Wentz to do enough to cover that spread.

The pick: Eagles -5.5 (-109)

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