Upcoming Match-ups

NFL Week 2 ATS Picks: Chiefs Lead a Pack of Road Favorites You Should be Targeting

Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are favored by seven points in Oakland in Week 2. Photo from @DustinStroup17 (Twitter).
  • Mahomes takes offensive assault into Oakland against Raiders
  • Bills stay in the Big Apple, trying to go 2-for-2 with win against Giants
  • ATS Week 1 Record: 3-1; Overall 2019 Record: 3-1

Let’s just say we needed some help landing that betting plane safely in Week 1.

After watching the Cleveland Browns hit the skids in a depressing season opening blowout to the Titans (at home, no less), things were looking grim. The Rams looked Super Bowl hangover-ish but hung on to cover against the Panthers, and then the magic happened: Jacoby Brissett rallying the Colts back late in Los Angeles to force OT and using every bit of that 6.5 points to cover against the Chargers.

And in a game that should have never gone near overtime to end in a tie, rookie Kyler Murray went supernova in the fourth quarter to rally the Cardinals from a 24-6 deficit against the Lions. Each team could only muster a field goal, leaving that 2.5 point Cards cushion intact for the W.

Is this momentum sustainable? Let’s find out as we unveil our Week 2 odds, with a heavy diet of road favorites, starting in Oakland.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Oakland Raiders

Team Spread at GTBets
Kansas City Chiefs -7 (-104)
Oakland Raiders +7 (-114)

*Odds from 09/06/19

Analysis: While it dates back to the 2017 season, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are currently riding the NFL’s longest game streak of scoring at least 25 points in a game. They’re at 22 and counting. I’m not the biggest fan of betting divisional games, as literally any scenario is possible, but that rule is superseded when Mahomes is involved.

In his full season and one game in 2019 as a starter, the fewest points the Chiefs have scored in 14 wins is 26. In fact, there are only two wins where they’ve failed to crack the 30-point plateau.

Including their impressive 24-16 win over the Broncos and the 2018 season, Oakland has put up 26 points or more just four times.

KC might be down the best deep threat in football in Tyreek Hill, but they are so incredibly talented and fast at the skill spots that Mahomes won’t miss a beat. You don’t need the points here, put your trust in the reigning MVP.

The Pick: Chiefs -7 (-104)

Buffalo Bills vs New York Giants

Team Spread at GTBets
Buffalo Bills -1.5 (-109)
New York Giants +1.5 (-109)

Analysis: Just two weeks into the season, and the Bills can lay claim to being the best team in New York, if they can go back into MetLife and down the Jets’ co-tenant, the Giants. In Week 1, the Bills rallied from a 16-0 deficit to beat Gang Green 17-16.

Bills pivot and scrambling legend Josh Allen was able to run for another TD in his short career, but he showed some moxie in the passing game, connecting with new deep threat John Brown for the eventual game-winning score. He finished with a career-best 254 yards passing.

Buffalo also boasts a stout defense, one that was ranked second in defensive DVOA in 2018, and they were disruptive again to start this year.

The Giants are all kinds of awful right now, minus the electric play of home run hitter Saquon Barkley. He’s the most talented piece on that roster but it’s going to not be enough to deliver Ws most of the season.

Eli Manning threw for 300+ yards for the 51st time in his career in the loss to Dallas, but he was under siege, hardly ever enjoying an open pocket to step into his throws.

The G-men were dead last in ATS record at home in 2018, going just 1-6-1 in their home games, and it’s almost a certainty they are less talented than a year ago.

The Pick: Buffalo -1.5 (-109)

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions

Team Spread at GTBets
Los Angeles Chargers -2 (-109)
Detroit Lions +2 (-109)

Analysis: Let’s give it up to Phil Rivers, who apparently needs just warm, living bodies on a roster to dominate in the NFL. Already down Pro-Bowl running back Melvin Gordon (holdout), safety Derwin James (foot), starting left tackle Russell Okung and wide receiver Mike Williams, the team lost tight end Hunter Henry for almost all of the season after a knee injury in Week 1.

And still, Rivers looked great in a win against a legit-good Colts team. Fortunately he’s still got Keenan Allen to catch passes, and he happens to love Motown: his career high for catches in a game came in Detroit in 2016, hauling in 15 balls for 166 yards, the second highest receiving yardage total in his career.

Matthew Stafford and the Lions looked good against the Cardinals for about 40 minutes before crashing back down to earth at the hands of rookie Kuler Murray.  While Chandler Jones and Terrell Suggs are a formidable pass-rush duo, they’re a notch down from the Joey Bosa-Melvin Ingram combo sure to wreak havoc on a line that surrendered three sacks in Week 1.

On a positive note, tight end TJ Hockenson was a beast, setting an NFL-best record for receiving yards by a rookie in his debut hauling in six balls for 131 yards and a touchdown.

I trust the numbers here though: the Chargers were a perfect 3-0-0 ATS last year as road favorites, with a sparkling 8-2-0 mark ATS on the road overall.

The Pick: Chargers -2 (-109)

Arizona Cardinals vs Baltimore Ravens

Team Spread at GTBets
Arizona Cardinals +13 (-114)
Baltimore Ravens -13 (-104)

Analysis: We end with a wager that GTBets is daring us to jump into, and we’re taking the bait. Lamar Jackson is coming off the greatest performance of his young career, going 17-for-20 for 324 yards and five TDs, earning a perfect passer rating.

On the other side, the Cardinals enter the year expected to be somewhere near the bottom of the league too, though optimism abounds as they are armed with fleet-footed, dime-dropping first overall pick Kyler Murray.

He showed out in the second half of his NFL debut, finishing 29-for-54 for 308 yards, two TDs and one INT. He’s first rookie in franchise history to throw for 300 yards in a first game.

Was Jackson’s showing an outlier, or the tip of the iceberg? In his previous eight starts last year, he cracked 200 yards passing just once. After a breakout performance, he’s being treated like Peyton Manning circa 2015 with the Broncos.

Perhaps it’s because the Ravens are 65-23 at home under John Harbaugh, owning an average margin of victory of 14.1 points.

It could also be as simple as expecting a rookie QB to get overwhelmed in his first ever road game, with a defense not strong enough to hold up its end of the bargain.

Let’s ride the hot hand.

The Pick: Ravens -13 (-104)

Author Image
Discussion

Let's have fun and keep it civil.