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Odds Say Not All 1st-Year NFL Head Coaches Getting a 2nd Year

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 1, 2020 · 11:18 AM PDT

Pat Shurmur's New York Giants showed a little fight down the stretch, winning four of their last six before being eliminated from the playoffs in Week 15. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Will every NFL first-year head coach make it to Year 2?
  • Nagy, Reich, Vrabel excelling in opening venture
  • Can Steve Wilks survive disastrous Cardinals campaign?

The NFL coaching carousel is pretty ruthless.

Since the turn of the century, 10 first-time head coaches have gotten the axe after their lone season at the helm.

The latest? That was at the end of 2016, when the 49ers had had enough of the Chip Kelly experiment. They had hired Kelly after they had had enough of the Jim Tomsula experiment just a season earlier.

This year, there are seven head coaches under that distinction, and sportsbooks have dropped an interesting prop. Before we get to the bad, big ups to the wildly successful Matt Nagy, who’s doing crazy stuff on offense and clinching NFC North titles.

Ditto Frank Reich and Mike Vrabel, who have their teams in playoff contention down the home stretch. You’re in good shape. These others? Eeeesh.

Odds All First-Year Head Coaches Get to Year 2

Will 1st-Year NFL Coaches Have the Same Post To Start Next Year? Odds
Yes +200
No -300

*Odds taken 12/19

Wilks’ Arizona Stint in Jeopardy Right Now

Think of something worse than a dumpster fire.

About four places down from that reside the Arizona Cardinals, and their embattled head coach Steve Wilks, who’s rightly been under siege for a few weeks now.  The latest nail to his coaching coffin came in a drubbing at home to the Falcons.

The Cardinals’ only real job this season was to nurture and develop Josh Rosen, their first-round pick expected to carry the franchise in the post-Carson Palmer era.

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Instead, there’s been turbulence with the firing of offensive coordinator Mike McCoy after starting 1-6, and little more positives to show with Byron Leftwich at the helm. The team ranks dead last in scoring, rushing and passing.

Has Rosen improved? You tell me.

But Wilks, who came from a defensive coaching background, hasn’t helped on that end either. Arizona ranks 25th in points allowed, 30th against the run and a deflating 29th in turnover differential at -12.

If there’s one reason to turn away from the longer odds here, it’s that the Cardinals look in disarray in every way. Don’t be fooled by their pass defense rank either (5th in the NFL): no team is passing the ball when they’re in cruise control.

Records of 2018’s 1st-Year Head Coaches

Coach Record Points Scored Rush Y/G Pass Y/G Points Allowed Rush Defense Pass Defense Turnover Differential
Matt Nagy, Bears 10-4 27.4 (6th) 119.7 (14th) 119.7 (14th) 18.9 (3rd) 83.6 (2nd) 227 (10th) +13 (1st)
Frank Reich, Colts 8-6 26.6 (8th) 107.9 (20th) 274 (7th) 21.4 (11th) 103.6 (8th) 238 (15th) +2 (T-14th)
Mike Vrabel, Titans 8-6 19.1 (27th) 130.8 (5th) 187 (30th) 18.1 (T-1st) 110.3 (12th) 219 (6th) -2 (21st)
Pat Shurmur, Giants 5-9 21.9 (T-20) 101.7 (25th) 246 (13th) 24.9 (T-22nd) 128.4 (28th) 237 (T-13th) +3 (12th)
Matt Patricia, Lions 5-9 20.3 (25th) 103.1 (24th) 226 (T-21st) 23.8 (T-18th) 115.4 (16th) 231 (11th) -6 (T-23rd)
Jon Gruden, Raiders 3-11 18.6 (29th) 99.1 (26th) 245 (14th) 29.9 (32nd) 146.4 (32nd) 239 (16th) -6 (T-23rd)
Steve Wilks, Cardinals 3-11 13.7 (32nd) 82.4 (32nd) 161 (32nd) 26.2 (25th) 144.9 (30th) 212 (5th) -12 (T-29th)

Patricia, Shurmur Disappoint, But May Make It to Next Season

Among the many bright spots that people in Detroit should be talking about – the emergence of running back Kerryon Johnson and receiver Kenny Golladay as promising cornerstones and a signature win over the Patriots, to name a few – it’s this moment that defines the Matt Patricia era in Motown thus far:

The Lions have done enough to probably warrant a second year out of Patricia, but the leash on him has to be pretty short. Since starting 3-3, Detroit has just two wins in their last eight games, failing to score more than 20 points in seven of those games.

Meanwhile, Shurmur can thank one dude for literally saving his bacon. Here’s a hint, it’s not Eli Manning.

Saquon Barkley has been outstanding in his rookie campaign, and the Giants feeding him as much as possible has created a highlight reel that has overshadowed just how bad the Giants have been.

If Shurmur can’t convince himself  or the front office to cut the umbilical cord on Manning this offseason, then he may as well step down, because he may be there opening week, but not much further.

What is the Best Bet Here?

I didn’t forget about the horrendous Jon Gruden season, but he’s locked into a 10-year, $100 million contract. He’s insulated himself with a bevy of draft picks (by trading his best players – but I digress), so he’s got himself at least one more year.

But Wilks doesn’t. I’d jump on the ‘no’ now and cash in, because the Cardinals coach probably won’t make it to Week 17.

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