Odds Favor an 8-Win NFC Team Making the Playoffs
- Sportsbooks are offering odds that favor an eight-win NFC team making the playoffs.
- Twelve teams have made the NFL playoffs in a 16-game season with eight wins or fewer.
- Eight of those 12 teams were from the NFC.
If the season ended today, a .500 team would earn an NFC playoff position.
This is the race for the No. 6 seed in the NFC.
One of these teams will make the playoffs.
Yikes. pic.twitter.com/wdKTj2lgAb— Joe Tansey (@JTansey90) December 11, 2018
Could that be the case three weeks from now? It’s happened before, and the oddsmakers believe that it could happen again.
The sportsbook is offering a prop wager on whether an NFC team will qualify for postseason play with eight wins and the odds are skewed in favor of it occurring.
Odds an Eight-Win Team Makes the NFC Playoffs
| Will an eight-win team make the NFC playoffs? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -175 |
| No | +135 |
The History of 8-8 Playoff Teams
Since the advent of the 16-game season, 10 teams have made the NFL playoffs with 8-8 records. Six were NFC clubs.
The 2006 New York Giants, the 2004 St. Louis Rams and Minnesota Vikings, the 1999 Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys, and the 1990 New Orleans Saints all got to the postseason with 8-8 records.
NFC playoff picture: Seahawks take a commanding wild card lead https://t.co/x9Rf6yXl76
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) December 11, 2018
The 1985 Cleveland Browns, the 1991 New York Jets, the 2008 San Diego Chargers, and the 2011 Denver Broncos did it in the AFC.
Two NFC teams managed to lower the bar even further. In 2014, the Carolina Panthers won the NFC South title with a 7-8-1 record. In 2010, the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks won the NFC West title.
Could History Repeat?
There are literally a half-dozen teams that could realistically make the postseason in the NFC with eight wins.
Potential Eight-Win NFC Playoff Teams
| Team | Remaining Schedule |
|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys (8-5) | at Colts (7-6), vs. Buccaneers (5-8), at Giants (5-8) |
| Seattle Seahawks (8-5) | at 49ers (3-10), vs. Chiefs (11-2), vs. Cardinals (3-10) |
| Minnesota Vikings (6-6-1) | vs. Dolphins (7-6), at Lions (5-8), vs. Bears (9-4) |
| Carolina Panthers (6-7) | vs. Saints (11-2), vs. Falcons (4-9), at Saints (11-2) |
| Philadelphia Eagles (6-7) | at Rams (11-2), vs. Texans (9-4), at Redskins (6-7) |
| Washington Redskins (6-7) | at Jaguars (4-9), at Titans (7-6), vs. Eagles (6-7) |
Let’s look at chances of each team doing it.
Dallas Cowboys (8-5)
The Cowboys need one win to clinch the NFC East. They should win two of their last three.
Seattle Seahawks (8-5)
Games remaining with the woeful 49ers and Cardinals easily get the Seahawks into double digits in the win column.
Minnesota Vikings (6-6-1)
This team shouldn’t be fighting for their playoff lives, they should be home and cooled out. But look at their remaining games. A 2-1 slate seems likely, but 1-2 is entirely possible and 0-3 isn’t out of the question the way the offense is playing.
Carolina Panthers (6-7)
Home-and-home with the Saints? Forget about eight wins. Forget about the playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)
Carson Wentz is out with a back injury, putting Super Bowl 52 hero Nick Foles back under center. Does he have another miracle up his sleeve?
Washington Redskins (6-7)
Down to their fourth-string QB, the Redskins won’t win another game.
The Best Bet
The Vikings or Eagles will grab the last Wild Card, but neither team is getting to nine wins. Bet on an eight-win playoff team in the NFC.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
