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Odds Say Greg Robinson Won’t Get 20+ Years for Drug Trafficking After Caught with 157 Pounds of Marijuana

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 11:18 AM PDT

Greg Robinson faces up to 20 years in prison after being arrested by border agents with 157 pounds of marijuana. Sportsbooks have odds on whether the NFL offensive lineman will serve the full term if convicted. Read on to find out our prediction.
  • Greg Robinson arrested at border in possession of 157 pounds of marijuana 
  • If convicted, he could face up to 20 years in prison
  • Read below to find out if you should wager on a max sentence

It was definitely not an NFL offseason story anyone was prepared for.

But last week, Greg Robinson, the second overall pick in the 2014 draft, who had just wrapped up his sixth season, and his second with the Cleveland Browns, was arrested at the Sierra Blanca border checkpoint near the United States and Mexico border in possession of 157 pounds of marijuana.

It’s a bizarre story all around, and Robinson faces federal charges that could land him in prison for 20 years.

Of course, there are odds on the length of Robinson’s conviction and sentencing.

Greg Robinson Marijuana Conviction Odds

Will Greg Robinson receive 20+ years for drug trafficking? Odds
Yes +200
No -300

*Odds from Feb. 24

Let’s unwrap this story and see just how realistic it is for the the 6-foot-5, 330-pound Robinson to serve the full term.

Plan to Cross Border Poorly Devised

Robinson was travelling with a teammate from his college days at Auburn, Quan Bray, a journeyman wide receiver who was last on the Colts’ practice roster, while also making stops both in the Alliance of American Football and the Canadian Football League.

According to numerous reports, Robinson rented a Chevy Tahoe in Los Angeles and arranged for an Uber driver to take both him and Bray to Louisiana. Bray was instructed to take the wheel when the three reached El Paso.

As they approached the checkpoint station, a U.S. Border Patrol canine unit alerted on their vehicle. A subsequent inspection revealed the presence of approximately 157 pounds of marijuana. It wasn’t an extensive search by any means: the marijuana was simply placed in large duffel bags in the back of the rental.

Reportedly, as they neared the station, Robinson told the Uber driver he would pay them to claim the marijuana. The driver refused, telling Robinson they would not have driven them if they had known about the drugs.

Robinson and Bray were charged with conspiracy to possess with intent to distribute marijuana and possession with intent to distribute marijuana.

Robinson Was Set to be Free Agent

Even as an underachieving top draft pick, Robinson was making a killing as a professional football player. His last contract with the Browns was a one-year pact worth $6.4 million. In total, the 27-year-old has made over $29 million over his six years in the NFL.

Even if he wasn’t a marquee free agent this offseason, offensive lineman are a commodity that teams pay for, particularly at Robinson’s tackle position. Pro Football Focus graded him out at 66.9, which only ranked him 22nd out of 37 players at the position, but it was a massive improvement and the best he had looked since 2015. While he was tied for eighth with 11 holding penalties, he also allowed just four sacks.

All of which is to say, a team could have conceivably taken him up on a one-year prove-it deal (which was likely going to happen anyway). If he played even above average, Robinson could have turned it into a more lucrative extension the next season, a figure which would have easily topped $10 million in guarantees.

His score from this stash, if they had been able to convert it, likely wouldn’t have even topped $1 million.

What’s the Best Bet?

I’m no legal expert, but Robinson is definitely going to plead guilty, and barring a major turn of events, is going to be facing some jail time. However, if he cooperates fully, and his legal representation tops that of a court-appointed legal aid, it’s highly unlikely he’d receive the maximum sentence. Or even close to it.

And there is even a precedent here: Nate Newton, one of the stars of the Dallas Cowboys’ offensive line that won three championships in four years in the ’90s, was caught twice for transporting Marijuana. Once in 2001 – a staggering 213 pounds, and another in 2002, trying to move 175 pounds. He was sentenced to 30 months in jail.

This one is a no-brainer.

The pick: No (-300)

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