Odds Against the NFL & NFLPA Agreeing to 17-Game Schedule for 2020

• Books have posted props on the current NFL CBS negotiations
• The league has pivoted to a 17-game schedule proposal
• Is there value to betting”Yes” to a 17-game agreement at +300?

NFL owners killed their 18-game regular-season proposal in the ongoing collective bargaining negotiations, but they did not give up on expanding the season.

Last week, the League pivoted to a 17-game proposal due to a lack of support among owners and opposition from the Players Association. This potential deal-breaker in NFL CBA negotiations means interesting prop action. The site has set the odds at +300 that both sides agree to a 17-game schedule. The “No” comes in at a hypershort -500.

Odds NFL & NFLPA Agree to a 17-Game Schedule

*Odds taken 10/02/19.

What Happened to the 18-Game Proposal?

The 18-game season first arose during collective bargaining agreement negotiations in 2011, before the current 10-year labor deal. It resurfaced again when negotiations between the owners and Players Association began before this season.

The NFL needs to stop making this 18 game season thing happen. It's never going to happen. pic.twitter.com/e2xWCrsiTB

— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) July 12, 2019

Now, the league will focus on expanding the 16-game schedule to 17 games. This could raise the number of postseason teams from 12 to 14 and it could include a neutral site game for each team as well. This is the owners’ effort to recoup losses from a shortened preseason football schedule.

Formal bargaining is on hold until NFL Players Association Executive Director DeMaurice Smith completes a tour of all 32 teams. The tour began in late August and ends next week, before the Oct. 15-16 NFL owners’ meetings in Florida.

These annual trips were moved up in good faith for negotiations. The eighth formal bargaining session could resume anytime before then, but no firm date is set.

Is There Any Value in Betting “Yes”?

In reality, an agreement on a 17-game schedule like hinges on the owners caving on revenue split. The players currently get a 47-percent share of total revenue. If the owners agree to a 50/50 split, the NFLPA could well cave on the schedule issue.

The NFL and NFLPA reportedly made progress on secondary issues in September. Tentative agreements include issues involving benefits, raising minimum salaries, and more. None of these are set in stone until revenue gets settled, but they do represent hope the two sides can agree on tough issues.

There is extra incentive on the league’s plan as NFL.com reported they will leverage labor peace to TV partners for extensions in December. That creates pressure to give the players more revenue share, too.

NFL owners want an 18-game season. Players don't, partly because they worry about a lot more injuries and shortened careers.

I went looking for data to back up the players' concerns. Surprisingly, I didn't really find it.https://t.co/rFAYTnG50h (1/7) pic.twitter.com/RfjNZf44wt

— Zachary Binney, PhD (@zbinney_NFLinj) August 23, 2019

A Football Outsiders injury expert also found no real correlation between more late-season games and increased injury-risk for the players. He found more injuries happen at the beginning of the season and remain constant week-to-week near the end of the year. Getting more money without increasing injury risk could lead to the Players Association opting into a longer season.

There are reasons to believe the owners will give up revenue for a longer schedule, which makes this prop’s payouts worth it. A 17-game regular season could be the winning outcome for both sides.