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Odds to Have the Number 1 Pick in the 2021 NFL Draft After Week 13

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NFL Football

Dec 7, 2020 · 2:00 PM PST

New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold
New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold (14), head coach Adam Gase, free safety Marcus Maye (20) and inside linebacker Neville Hewitt (46) stand for the national anthem before an NFL football game against the Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday, Dec. 6, 2020, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
  • The New York Jets are still winless on the season and are favored to finish with the worst record in the NFL
  • The Jets are fresh off a demoralizing loss on Sunday where they gave up a last-second, game-winning touchdown to the Las Vegas Raiders
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are the only other team inside of 55/1 for this prop

The one positive that came out of the New York Jets’ calamitous collapse on Sunday was the fact that they’re still in the driver’s seat to have the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. As we move towards the end of the season, the odds have grown shorter as their chances of securing it have increased.

Taking a look at the teams in the running and the remaining schedules, which team is the best bet for this prop?

Odds to Have NFL’s Worst Record

Team Odds
New York Jets -250
Jacksonville Jaguars +200
Cincinnati Bengals +5500
Dallas Cowboys +5500
Los Angeles Chargers +6000

Odds taken Dec. 7 at FanDuel. Dead heat rules apply if teams finish with same record. All teams must play 16 games for action.

Jets Fresh Off Disappointing Defeat

Although the Jets franchise seemingly really wanted to earn a win on Sunday, the fact that they lost should prove better in the long run. After all, it’s become quite clear that the Jets are cleaning house at the end of the season and essentially starting from scratch. The last thing they need to do is pick up a couple of meaningless wins and hurt their chances at drafting Trevor Lawrence.

The Jets franchise seems to be focused on getting a win, though, as they fired defensive coordinator Gregg Williams on Monday morning. Williams called a  blitz in the dying seconds of Sunday’s loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, which cost the Jets the win. The firing shows that the Jets are still fighting.

As a matter of fact, the Jets have been quite competitive over the last month or so. They probably should have beaten the New England Patriots, they had a chance late against the Los Angeles Chargers and they blew their best shot at a win on Sunday against the Raiders. For better or for worse, they’re not quitting.

The challenge is that this isn’t a very good roster. Quarterback Sam Darnold threw a touchdown pass on Sunday for the first time in five games. He has cracked the 200-yard passing mark just once in his last seven. Meanwhile, the defense has allowed 30 points or more in four of their last five. It’s just too tough for this team to win games given their current talent.

Current NFL Standings

Team Current Record
New York Jets 0-12
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-11
Cincinnati Bengals 2-9-1
Los Angeles Chargers 3-9
Dallas Cowboys 3-8

What’s the Jets Remaining Schedule?

One of the keys to evaluating this prop is examining the remaining schedules of the teams and taking a look at the Jets, it’s tough to find a win among their final four contests. They’re at Seattle this week and the Seahawks are coming off a home loss to the New York Giants. What’s the chance they lose back-to-back at home to the New York teams?

After that, the Jets go to Los Angeles to face the Rams, host the Cleveland Browns and then visit the New England Patriots. Even in the most optimistic of scenarios, they’ll be at least a touchdown underdog – if not a double-digit dog – in all of those contests. They’re capable of one upset but those will be four quality teams in playoff races. There are no easy ones on the schedule.

Can the Jaguars Catch Up?

Taking a look at the other teams in this list, it would appear that the Jacksonville Jaguars are the only other team in the running. Every other team is at 55/1 or longer. One might think that the Cincinnati Bengals might have an outside shot because they’re without lead quarterback Joe Burrow but they have two wins and a tie this season. It’ll be really tough for them to catch up.

That leaves the one-win Jaguars are the only other team with a realistic shot. They are 1-11 on the season and have games against Tennessee, Baltimore, Chicago and Indianapolis remaining. The challenge there is that the schedule – at least on the surface – appears easier than the Jets. The Jags could potentially beat the Bears, who are reeling.

The other key factor here is that the Jags have been very close to notching multiple wins recently. Over their last five games, they have lost four of them by four points or less. That includes Sunday’s affair at Minnesota where they nearly upset the Vikings as a 10.5-point underdog.

The Jags are a young team that actually appears to be quite competent. That’s especially the case with veteran quarterback Mike Glennon under center. He’s given the passing game a shot in the arm. He has been far from perfect – his 43.1 QBR is quite ugly – but he’s been able to move the ball through the air.

At this point, it wouldn’t be surprise if this team won one or two games down the stretch and they might even be favored against the Bears. That puts them in a bad position to finish with the worst record in the NFL.

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars Remaining Schedule

0-12 2020 Record 1-11
at Seattle Seahawks Week 14 vs Tennessee Titans
at Los Angeles Rams Week 15 at Baltimore Ravens
vs Cleveland Browns Week 16 vs Chicago Bears
at New England Patriots Week 17 at Indianapolis Colts

What’s the Best Bet?

The smart money here is on the Jets. Not only have they been pathetic this season, they have a tough schedule remaining where it’s tough to see them pulling out a win. Even if they do, a team like the Jaguars probably finishes with at least two wins this season as they continue to fight tooth and nail.

You do have to lay some juice here at -250 but this is the best bet. They’re going to have the worst record at the end of the season.

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