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Odds to Have First Overall Pick in 2021 NFL Draft – Jets Listed as Heavy Favorites

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Mar 8, 2021 · 11:29 AM PST

New York Jets' Marcus Maye with a towel over his head
New York Jets' Marcus Maye struggled to hide his frustration after the Jets lost to the Raiders on Sunday. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)
  • The 0-6 New York Jets are overwhelming -170 favorites to finish with the worst record during the 2020 NFL season
  • That would give them the first pick in the NFL Draft, expected to be Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence
  • In 2018, the Jets selected current starting QB Sam Darnold with the third overall pick of the draft

The top three favorites to pick first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft are Jets, Jets, Jets.

Okay, you got us. That’s not entirely accurate. Then again, considering the current odds, it might as well be fact.

Just six games into the campaign, oddsmakers have already pegged the Jets as overwhelming odds-on -170 favorites to finish the 2020 NFL season with the worst regular-season record. That would give them the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Odds to Have NFL’s Worst Record

Team Current Record Odds
New York Jets 0-6 -170
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-5 +460
New York Giants 1-5 +700
Washington Football Club 1-5 +700
Cincinnati Bengals 1-4-1 +1800
Atlanta Falcons 1-5 +2500
Los Angeles Chargers 1-4 +4000
Houston Texans 1-5 +5000
Denver Broncos 2-3 +6500

Odds taken Oct. 20 at FanDuel. Dead heat rules apply if teams finish with same record. All teams must play 16 games for action.

The Jets have picked first overall only once in the NFL Draft, in 1996. They selected wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson.

A New York State of Decay

How bad are the 2020 Jets? Let’s count the ways.

Not only are they 0-6 but the Jets have been outscored by a 110-point margin. They’re on pace to shatter the NFL record for the worst point differential in a single season.

New York’s offense has scored 68 points. Of that total, 28 came in a loss to the Denver Broncos, which likely explains the presence of odds on the 2-3 Broncos in this prop.

Since the start of last season, the Jets have lost 11 games by margins of 14 points or greater. That’s also an NFL high.

In the past week, they released running back Le’Veon Bell, who was signed last year to a $52.5-million contract. Head coach Adam Gase and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams openly feuded prior to Sunday’s 24-0 loss to the Miami Dolphins.

Shun of Sam?

Clemson QB and Heisman Trophy contender Trevor Lawrence is the coveted first prize of the 2021 NFL Draft. There’s just one problem with that scenario. In 2018, the Jets spent the third overall pick of the draft on Sam Darnold to be their QB of the future.

Will the Jets pull an Arizona Cardinals move and dump Darnold? The Cardinals selected QB Jay Rosen in the first round of the 2018 draft and then tabbed Kyler Murray first overall the following year, casting Rosen adrift.

Darnold (shoulder) has missed the past two games. The Jets are last in the NFL in scoring and passing offense.

They’re 0-8 in games that Darnold has missed due to injury or illness.

Slagging the Jags

Last season, the Jets opened 0-4 and 1-7 and then were 6-2 in the second half of the season. Never count out the fact that they can screw this up and start winning games that they shouldn’t.

That leads us to the Jacksonville Jaguars. After an opening-week win over the Colts and putting a second-week scare into the Titans, the Jags have all but packed it in. Last week, they got rolled 34-16 by the Detroit Lions.

It’s difficult to see another win on Jacksonville’s remaining schedule. They’ve already lost to AFC South rival Houston. They go to LA to meet the Chargers but are 3-12 all-time on the west coast.

Don’t sleep on the Jags. They’ve looked to tanking from the outset, dumping 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette and pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue in the preseason.

At a price of +460, take the value play on Jacksonville.

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+460)

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