NFL Odds and Spreads – Line Movement for Week 3

• In the NFL betting odds for Week 3, the Detroit Lions aren’t getting any love from the oddsmakers
• However, nine other road teams are favored in the Week 3 NFL odds
• The moneylines, spreads and line movement for all games in the NFL odds for Week 3 are assessed in the story below

The Week 3 NFL odds and line movement is showing that oddsmakers are packing the picks with teams that were packing their bags.

Nine road teams are listed as favorites in this week’s games in the NFL odds, but perhaps that shouldn’t be too surprising. Through two weeks of play, road underdogs are 9-8  in against the spread picks.

One of those road favorites, though, isn’t the Detroit Lions. No matter how often they cover, they get no love from the oddsmakers. For a brief time, it appeared that the Lions would be the betting choice last week at home against the Washington Commanders. Late action, however, brought the line to a pick’em by kickoff. Even though Detroit is 13-6 ATS under current head coach Dan Campbell, it’s still been 25 games (and counting) since the Lions were favored to win a game.

At the other end of the spectrum are the Buffalo Bills. Favorites in the Super Bowl odds, the Bills covered at home last week as the 10-point chalk over the Tennessee Titans, last season’s #1 seed in the AFC. This week, Buffalo is going into Miami as a 5.5-point betting choice over the 2-0 Dolphins.

Before diving into this week’s line movement, let’s look at the up-to-date Week 3 NFL betting lines.

NFL Week 3 Betting Lines

Odds as of September 23rd at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim the Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend

Including Thursday’s Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns game, three games this week are showing a total under 40 points. The under was 22-10 through the first two weeks of the NFL season.

Week 3 Biggest Line Movement

NFL betting sites are evidently anticipating that the Philadelphia Eagles will be making mincemeat out of their old quarterback. Carson Wentz is facing the Eagles as QB1 for the Washington Commanders.

#Eagles LBs work on stripping the ball. Carson Wentz tends to fumble, BTW. pic.twitter.com/uRSRBha03Y

— Martin Frank (@Mfranknfl) September 22, 2022

Perhaps Wentz’s interceptions won’t seem like picks to him this week, seeing as he’ll be throwing them into the arms of old teammates. The opening line on this game was Philadelphia -3.5. It’s grown to Eagles as -6.5 points.

The line has shortened two points in another NFC East matchup, the MNF game between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants. The Giants went from -3 down to -1. It’s been 23 games since New York’s NFC team kicked off as a favorite.

Biggest Total Movement In Week 3

There are future Hall of Fame quarterbacks on both sides of the ball. Yet as Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers travel to Tampa Bay to face Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, this game is featuring an incredibly shrinking total.

Rodgers vs Brady head-to-head in their career. pic.twitter.com/DwMLxzKY4h

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 23, 2022

The over/under on this game opened at 45.5 points. It’s since shortened to 42 points.

Granted, taking recency bias into account, perhaps this shouldn’t be a shock. Both teams are ranking in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of scoring offense. Tampa Bay is 18th (19.5 points per game). Green Bay is 23rd (17 PPG). The Buccaneers have scored just two offensive touchdowns.

Packers vs Buccaneers Offers Shortest Week 3 Favorites

Brady is 3-1 straight up against Rodgers. This week, though, oddsmakers are loath to choose between these two legends. The Packers vs Buccaneers is set as pick’em.

Who is better?

Tom Brady without any receivers
or
Aaron Rodgers without any receivers

We will find out Sunday

— ThatsGoodSports (@BrandonPerna) September 21, 2022

Tampa Bay opened as 3-point home favorites. Then Buccaneers WR Mike Evans got suspended by the NFL. And both teams each have three other WRs who are questionable to play.

Chargers Given Biggest Week 3 Spread

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert says he’s growing more comfortable each day throwing the ball with his fractured rib cartilage. The Chargers are listing him as day-to-day, but apparently, that’s more than good enough for oddsmakers.

Justin Herbert's final drive after suffering a rib cartilage fracture:

7-9 passing
73 pass yards
1 TD

Led 9-play, 73-yard TD drive (9 passing plays, 0 run plays). pic.twitter.com/mI221WSv6X

— Pinhead Sports®  (@_PinheadSports) September 16, 2022

The 1-1 Chargers are set as 7-point home favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars. LA is 3-1 ATS the last four games as a favorite of 7 or more points. That’s including a 39-29 decision over the Jaguars in 2020 as the 7.5-point chalk.

Two Games Sharing Lowest Total of Week 3

Technically, the 38 points on the Steelers vs Browns game was the lowest total in the NFL Week 3 line movement. But since that game’s over – and also went over, by the way – let’s look ahead.

Lovie Smith appreciation post since he’s coming back to Chicago this Sunday:

– 81-63 record in 9 years
– 2 NFC title game appearances
– Only Super Bowl appearance since ‘85
-helped develop numerous Bears legends pic.twitter.com/Y6cwP5drgR

— DaWindyCity Productions (@dwcprodz) September 21, 2022

Two games are set with a total of 39 points – the Houston Texans vs Chicago Bears in Lovie Smith’s return to the Windy City, and the Cowboys vs the Giants.

Houston (14.5 PPG), Chicago (14.5 PPG) and Dallas (11.5 PPG) all rank in the bottom seven of the NFL in scoring offense. The Giants are 15th (20.0 PPG).

Week 3’s Highest Total is Bills vs Dolphins

The highest total of the betting odds for Week 3 is going to the Bills vs Dolphins. Buffalo is the NFL’s top-scoring offense at 36 points per game. Miami ranks #5, putting 31 points on the scoreboard per week. The Bills and the over are getting heavy action in the NFL public betting trends.

Top-10 in ESPN's Total QBR after two weeks:

1. Josh Allen, 87.1
2. Tua Tagovailoa, 85.7
3. Patrick Mahomes, 82.4
4. Lamar Jackson, 76.5
5. Trevor Lawrence, 73.1
6. Cooper Rush, 72.6
7. Jalen Hurts, 70.8
8. Justin Herbert, 70.6
9. Kyler Murray, 62.7
10. Geno Smith, 62.4

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) September 20, 2022

The Bills’ defense is also riddled by injury. Cornerback Dane Jackson (neck), safety Micah Hyde (neck) and defensive tackle Jordan Phillips (hamstring) are all ruled out for Week 3. The status of safety Jordan Poyer (foot) and defensive tackles Ed Oliver (ankle) and Tim Settle (calf) is uncertain.

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