- Underdogs both home (8-5-1) and road (9-8-0) are faring well ATS through Week 2 of the NFL season
- The total has gone under in 22 of 32 NFL season games so far this season
- What NFL team trends should you be looking for entering Week 3 of the NFL season?
What NFL team trends did we discover during Week 2 of the 2022 NFL season?
Well, Kirk Cousins still can’t win under the bright lights, but then again, we already knew that. Underdogs and the under both are proving to be where the smart money is going as far as NFL betting trends are concerned.
Heading into Week 3, these are the NFL team betting trends to keep in mind.
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Limbo On Under
One trend that’s jumping off the page through two weeks of play is that teams are going under in a big way. The under is 22-10 on the total through Week 2.
This NFL betting trend has been especially prevalent during prime time games. The under is 6-1 at night. Only the Buffalo Bills, favorites in the Super Bowl odds, who crushed the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football in Week 2, have been able to fashion an over performance under the lights.
This is the biggest start for the under in almost two decades. In 1996, the under was 21-8-1 through the first two weeks of NFL regular-season action. Through two weeks of this season, just four teams – the Washington Commanders, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns and Atlanta Falcons – are still a perfect 2-0 on the over.
— Sergeant Opie, Mayberry Midnight Shift (@sgted99) September 18, 2022
However, perhaps this trend shouldn’t be all that surprising to the knowledgable football bettor. Last season, only eight of 32 NFL teams managed to go over more often than not. Those would be the Minnesota Vikings (11-6-0), Kansas City Chiefs (12-8-0), New York Jets (10-7-0), Los Angeles Chargers (10-7-0), Philadelphia Eagles (10-8-0), New England Patriots (10-8-0), the Bills (10-9-0) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-9-0).
Only the Vikings (64.%) and Chiefs (60.0%) managed to hit the over in 60% of their games. The Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams were just 10-10-1 on the total.
Don’t Sleep On the Lions Tonight . . . Or Any Night
The Detroit Lions are the ATS squad that just keeps on giving. No one puts on a spread like head coach Dan Campbell and the Lions.
Under Campbell, the Lions are 4-14-1 in the standings. But they are 13-6 against the spread.
Detroit Lions Under Dan Campbell
|Season||Straight Up||Against The Spread|
Detroit is going to Minnesota this week. The Lions are getting six points in the NFL odds and plenty of wagers in the NFL public betting splits. The line opened at Minnesota -7.5, so it would appear that bettors are getting wise when it comes to getting action on the Lions.
Giants’ Jones Is Kirk’s Cousin
The 2-0 New York Giants are playing host to the 1-1 Dallas Cowboys on the Week 3 MNF game. Last week, the Minnesota Vikings were whipped 24-7 by the Eagles on MNF. That result was dropping the straight up prime time record of Vikings QB Cousins to 10-18 overall and 2-10 on MNF.
Everyone talking about Cousins but Daniel Jones is also brutal on primetime
Combined 0-8 with 12 INT’s & 3 fumbles. 0-3 on TNF & 0-5 on MNF pic.twitter.com/Rt4gf2ykxC
— Sean Little (@ChicagoFlow) September 20, 2022
That’s a bad NFL team trend, but you know who’s even less of a prime time player? Giants QB Daniel Jones, that’s who. He’s 0-5 SU on MNF and has thrown as many TDs and interceptions (eight) in those games.
As well, Jones is 0-3 SU on TNF, leaving him at 0-8 when playing in prime time football as an NFL QB. Combining all his prime time performances, Jones has thrown 12 picks and fumbled three times.
It’s a dog-eat-dog world, but more often than not two weeks into the season, it’s the favorites who are wearing the Milk-Bone underwear.
2022 NFL Underdogs Record
Underdogs, both home and away, are ruling the day in NFL team trends heading into Week 3. Home underdogs are a solid 8-5-1 ATS. Road underdogs are also performing at an above-average rate. They’re 9-8 ATS.
Should You Roll With the O-fers?
If every dog does indeed have his day, then should you be wagering on the winless in Week 3? Since the NFL schedule was expanded from 14 to 16 games in 1978, just two teams – the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns – managed to go 0-16.
Whether it’s the law of averages or the law of probability you study, the thesis is that eventually, every team will win a game. Interestingly enough, three of the five teams still winless at 0-2 – the Titans, Raiders and Bengals – were all playoff teams last season. Cincinnati went to the Super Bowl.
Since 2003, when two winless teams play the underdog is 66-37-4 (64%) ATS per @Bet_Labs.
Week 3 match:
Titans +2.5 vs. Raiders
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) September 20, 2022
Based on last season, betting on these teams to come out of their skids in Week 3 isn’t wise when looking at NFL team trends. In 2021, seven teams went into Week 3 at 0-2. They went a collective 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS.
One of them has to win, because the Raiders and Titans are playing each other. The Bengals at the Jets could see another o-fer coming off the books.
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