PGA Championship First-Round Leader Picks & Predictions

• The PGA Championship from Aronimink Golf Club tees off Thursday, May 14th
• Defending champion Scottie Scheffler is the +1475 favorite to lead after 18 holes over two-time defending Masters champ Rory McIlroy
• Read below for five picks of mine to be leader after day one of the PGA Championship

The second men’s major of 2026 is upon us, and the world’s best are competing at Aronimink Golf Club, just outside of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite in the PGA Championship odds to win outright, which would be his second straight PGA title, having won at Quail Hollow a year ago.

Instead of waiting until Sunday to potentially collect our earnings, this article will explore bets that can be made that will settle at the conclusion of the first round, searching to find who will be the first-round leader after 18 holes.

2026 PGA Championship First-Round Leader Odds

The weather will be in the mid 50’s early in the morning, reaching the low 60’s in the afternoon, with a mix of sun and clouds all day. The wind gusts will consistently be between 16-20 MPH all of Thursday as well.

Keep in mind, if you’re inclined to wager on a FRL selection on a player in the afternoon, patience can be a virtue. Invariably someone will go super low in the AM, perhaps rendering most of the PM players obsolete in terms of winning a first round leader wager.

Odds as of May 13th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the full list of DraftKings deposit methods before betting on the PGA Championship.

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PGA Championship First-Round Leader Picks and Predictions 2026

• Xander Schauffele +3300 (DraftKings)
• Tommy Fleetwood +4500 (BetMGM)
• Alex Smalley +10000 (DraftKings)
• Nick Taylor +12500 (BetMGM)
• Ricky Castillo +17500 (BetMGM)

My first choice is 2024 PGA Champion Xander Schauffele (8:29 am, +3300). He ranks 16th in first round scoring, and has posted a third place result this season at the Players Championship, part of four top-10s in 2026. The others were at the Masters (T-9th), and the Valspar (T-4th) and Genesis (T-7th).

In his last nine majors, the X-Man has racked up seven top-10s, and led after day one of the 2024 PGA. Additionally, he’s had success at this venue, finishing T-3rd (one shot out of a playoff) when Aronimink Golf Club hosted the 2018 BMW Championship.

Next I have my sights set on Tommy Fleetwood (1:43pm, +4500), who has put together five top-10s on the campaign, including a T-5th last weekend at the Truist Championship. The Englishmen ranks fourth in strokes gained: around-the-green, and ninth tee-to-green on the campaign. Like Schauffele, he fared well at this course in 2018, placing T-8th.

2026 PGA Tour First-Round Scoring Average Leaders

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Longshot 2026 PGA Championship First Round Leaders Predictions

Since it’s incredibly hard to pick a leader after one round, I love searching for longshots that could make huge bank if it occurs. In that vein, I’m selecting three golfers who are in the top-six in first round scoring this season. Chris Amberley also has written a piece about PGA Championship longshot winners picks.

First up is Alex Smalley (2:16pm, +10000). He’s been on a prolonged stretch of solid golf, with five straight top-25s, including a runner-up at the Zurich Classic and T-7th at Doral. He’s sixth in first round scoring, led after day one at the Zurich and was second on Thursday at the Cadillac Championship.

Then, Nick Taylor (1:16 pm, +12500) is fourth in FRS. The five-time PGA Tour winner is coming in playing well, with back-to-back strong showings in signature events (T-9th Cadillac, T-14th Truist). He’s also popped early, having been inside the top-five in both of those tourneys on day one.

Finally, Ricky Castillo (12:37 pm, +17500) is my fave super longshot, and like Smalley, he’s sixth in first round scoring average. He won for the first time this year at the Puerto Rico Open, and hasn’t been strong since, but he’s my ultimate dart throw to get on a roll for 18 holes.