- Odds have been released for how every team in the NFL will fair against their first four opponents
- The 49ers have the shortest odds to start 4-0, while the Redskins are favored to begin 0-4
- Read on to see the odds for every team to start the season either 4-0 or 0-4 below
The NFL is a sport where it’s especially important to get off to a hot start in the regular season if you hope to still be in the playoff conversation late into the season. With such a short regular season, starting off with a few losses could quickly derail even the best-laid offseason plans.
Odds have been posted on which NFL teams are most likely to be both 4-0 and 0-4 after the first month of the season. We take a look at a few teams with good value and also to avoid for each proposition below.
NFL Team 4-0 & 0-4 Odds
|Team||First Four Opponents||4-0 Odds||0-4 Odds|
|Arizona||@SF, vs WAS, vs DET, @CAR||+1200||+1100|
|Atlanta||vs SEA, @DAL, vs CHI, @GB||+2500||+500|
|Baltimore||vs CLE, @HOU, vs KC, @WAS||+250||+6500|
|Buffalo||vs NYJ, @MIA, vs LAR, @LV||+500||+2200|
|Carolina||vs LV, @TB, @LAC, vs ARZ||+3000||+450|
|Chicago||@DET, vs NYG, @ATL, vs IND||+850||+1200|
|Cincinnati||vs LAC, @CLE, @PHI, vs JAC||+5000||+380|
|Cleveland||@BAL, vs CIN, vs WAS, @DAL||+1100||+2200|
|Dallas||@LAR, vs ATL, @SEA, vs CLE||+500||+2500|
|Denver||vs TEN, @PIT, vs TB, @NYJ||+1600||+800|
|Detroit||vs CHI, @GB, @ARZ, vs NO||+2500||+500|
|Green Bay||@MIN, vs DET, @NO, vs ATL||+1000||+1400|
|Houston||@KC, vs BAL, @PIT, vs MIN||+4000||+350|
|Indianapolis||@JAC, vs MIN, vs NYJ, @CHI||+450||+3500|
|Jacksonville||vs IND, @TEN, vs MIA, @CIN||+5000||+300|
|Kansas City||vs HOU, @LAC, @BAL, vs NE||+260||+8000|
|Las Vegas||@CAR, vs NO, @NE, vs BUF||+2000||+550|
|LA Chargers||@CIN, vs KC, vs CAR, @TB||+1400||+1100|
|LA Rams||vs DAL, @PHI, @BUF, vs NYG||+1100||+1200|
|Miami||@NE, vs BUF, @JAC, vs SEA||+2500||+500|
|Minnesota||vs GB, @IND, vs TEN, @HOU||+700||+1600|
|New England||vs MIA, @SEA, vs LV, @KC||+1400||+1400|
|New Orleans||vs TB, @LV, vs GB, @DET||+300||+4000|
|New York Giants||vs PIT, @CHI, vs SF, @LAR||+8000||+240|
|New York Jets||@BUF, vs SF, @IND, vs DEN||+5000||+400|
|Philadelphia||@WAS, vs LAR, vs CIN, @SF||+500||+3500|
|Pittsburgh||@NYG, vs DEN, vs HOU, @TEN||+450||+2500|
|San Francisco||vs ARZ, @NYJ, @NYG, vs PHI||+190||+8000|
|Seattle||@ATL, vs NE, vs DAL, @MIA||+550||+1800|
|Tampa Bay||@NO, vs CAR, @DEN, vs LAC||+650||+2500|
|Tennessee||@DEN, vs JAC, @MIN, vs PIT||+800||+2200|
|Washington||vs PHI, @ARZ, @CLE, vs BAL||+12500||+140|
Odds as of May 29
Odds Favor 49ers to Start 4-0
The Super Bowl finalists came up short in the big game, but are the favorites to start strong with a 4-0 record. San Fran are no shorter than 5.5-point favorites in any of the early NFL lines in their first four games so it would be no surprise if they are undefeated one month in.
Also among the favorites but at a slightly longer price of +300 are the New Orleans Saints. They do open their season against the now Tom Brady-led Buccaneers, but do get them at home and will be hopeful Brady takes some time to get accustomed to his new teammates. The Saints defeated the Bucs in both meetings last year as well.
They’re favored in Vegas, at home to Green Bay and at Detroit in each of their next four games too. The toughest of those competitors should be Green Bay. However, Green Bay has a frustrated Aaron Rodgers after the team’s offseason and were overachievers last year. They were 9-1 in one-score games, played KC without Patrick Mahomes and suffered very few serious injuries.
Let’s look at one more longshot too. Ok, hang with me here. I don’t see too many clear-cut 4-0 starters in this list. But I do see some potential value in a big longshot. That comes in the Miami Dolphins at +2500 odds. Miami starts with two AFC East rivals in the Patriots and Bills.
While they were blown out 43-0 to New England in Week 2 last year, they pulled a huge upset 27-24 in Week 17. That win also came against Tom Brady. This year it’ll come against Jared Stidham. Week 2 sees them hosting the Bills and while they lost both meetings last year, they’re only a field goal dog and wouldn’t be a huge surprise to upset the Bills. That brings us to Week 3 against the Jaguars who may put up a strong shout to go 0-16.
— David Bearman ESPN (@DBearmanESPN) May 21, 2020
This is where it gets interesting. They’ll host the Seahawks in Week 4 as four-point dogs and very likely could lose that game. But, Seattle will travel to Atlanta in Week 1, return home to host the Pats in Week 2 and Cowboys in Week 3. Then comes this game against the Dolphins in Week 4, prior to key NFC games against the Vikings and divisional foe Cardinals and 49ers in the coming weeks. If any game is a spot they take their foot off the gas in, it’s this one.
Furthermore, if Miami does go 3-0 to start the year, you essentially have the Dolphins at 25-1 odds to beat Seattle. That will likely give you plenty of wiggle room to partially hedge out with a bet on Seattle and lock in some profit.
4-0 Picks: San Fran (+190), New Orleans (+300), Miami (+2500)
Favorites to Avoid
After the 49ers, no teams have better odds to start 4-0 out of the gates than the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs (+260) and Baltimore Ravens (+250).
I’m not sure I’d bet either of these big favorites. To start with, there’s the obvious, in that they play each other in the opening four weeks so someone has to lose. But KC could even lose in Week 1 despite being a huge favorite in the early lines. There’s always a chance for a bit of a Super Bowl hangover, especially when you consider the possibility of limited training camps or pre-season games due to the coronavirus.
The Chiefs will be hosting the Texans in the league’s first game, but will likely be without their home fans. The Chiefs also lost to Houston 31-24 last season and were down big 24-0 against them in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Another classic between these two coming at Kickoff of Week 1. pic.twitter.com/m4yNTDkV2A
— NFL (@NFL) May 10, 2020
If they get past the Texans, the Chargers could be a wild card with Tyrod Taylor now at QB and then Week 3 is the aforementioned meeting with the Ravens, on the road. KC has won the past three between the teams, but each of the last two were at home. Each of those were also close encounters—33-28 last year and 27-24 in overtime in 2018.
The Ravens start with a divisional foe in the Cleveland Browns, whom they split the series with last season, losing 40-25 in Week 4 and winning 31-15 in Week 16. The Ravens defeated the Texans 41-7 last year, so Week 2 ‘should’ be a win, but pencil in a win over Deshaun Watson at your own peril. Then once again, we have a Week 3 meeting with the champs.
One more I’d stay away from is the Pittsburgh Steelers at +450 odds to go 4-0. The Steelers lost four of six down the stretch last year and while everyone is getting excited for Big Ben’s return from injury, I’m still skeptical. He’s now 38-years-old and coming off a major injury. Anyone who’s followed Ben’s social media can attest to the fact that he doesn’t ‘appear’ to have stayed in the best of shape this offseason during the pandemic.
Of course, he still has plenty of time to prepare, but it has to give you pause. The Steelers are favored from Weeks 1-3 but all by shorter than a touchdown spread. They’re also lined as short underdogs in Week 4 against the Titans. Dropping one or maybe two of their opening games wouldn’t surprise me.
Who’s Favored to Start 0-4?
There are plenty of teams given short odds at 0-4 including the Panthers, Redskins, Bengals, Texans and Jags. But both the Giants (+240) and Jets (+400) are among the favorites for an 0-4 start as well. Neither has the easiest of starts to the year, or for the entire season as whole. The Giants have the second-toughest strength of schedule based on opponents’ projected wins (135.3), with the Jets just behind with the third-toughest (133.3).
The G-Men are +3, +5, +7.5 and +7.5-point dogs to the Steelers, Bears, 49ers and Rams. While the Jets are also dogs in their opening three games, but currently 2.5-point home favorites to the Broncos in Week 4.
The Giants most winnable games to start are probably away to the Bears or the Rams if they want to avoid 0-4—and those are still big ‘maybes’. While the Jets could envision a potential win in Buffalo, maybe away to Indy with new QB Philip Rivers or in Week 4 at home to Denver. Edge Jets.
I also like some decent value with betting on the Patriots at +1400. None of us know how good Jared Stidham will be. And while Bill Belichick clearly has high expectations for him, even if he’s right, will Stidham be a home run from the get-go? I have to assume not. When you look at the Patriot’s schedule, they have two very winnable home games against Miami (Week 1) and Las Vegas (Week 3). But two much tougher games away to Seattle (Week 2) and Kansas City (Week 4).
Those winnable games are only winnable though if Stidham adapts quickly to the league. If Miami can win the Week 1 game and the Pats look shaky, it’s game on for hoping to cash the Pats at 0-4.
Picks: NYG (+240), New England (+1400)
Can Burrow Get an Early Win?
The Bengals are among the favorites to go 0-4. But they have Week 4 tilt against the Jacksonville Jaguars which could throw a wrench into that. Joe Burrow may be a rookie, but he may still be better than whoever the Jags trot out at QB. Plus, the Bengals are at least trying to improve, while the Jags would be perfectly happy to get the best draft pick in 2021 they can.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.