- As is the case each season, every NFL team will play six games against divisional opponents, one home and one away against each of the three
- Last season, two teams went 6-0 in divisional games and three teams went 0-6
- See the odds for all teams to win all six of those games and to lose all six
Each season, every NFL team plays six games against divisional foes – one home and one on the road against all three teams in their division. Last season, two teams went 6-0 in their respective divisions – Kansas City and Green Bay – while three teams went 0-6 – Los Angeles (Chargers), Washington, and Detroit.
Since 2007, we’ve seen at least one team go 6-0 in their division each season, except for 2015. And we’ve seen at least one team go 0-6 in divisional games every season since 2005, except for 2018. So with it being extremely likely that at least one team will run the table in their division and at least one will not win a single game, let’s dive into the odds for the 2020 NFL season.
Odds to Win or Lose All 6 Divisional Games
|Team||Divisional Opponents||Odds to Win All 6 Divisional Games||Odds to Lose All 6 Divisional Games|
|Arizona Cardinals||LAR, SF, SEA||+25000||+800|
|Atlanta Falcons||CAR, NO, TB||+10000||+2200|
|Baltimore Ravens||CIN, CLE, PIT||+450||+100000|
|Buffalo Bills||MIA, NE, NYJ||+1200||+10000|
|Carolina Panthers||ATL, NO, TB||+75000||+450|
|Chicago Bears||DET, GB, MIN||+4000||+2800|
|Cincinnati Bengals||BAL, CLE, PIT||+100000||+350|
|Cleveland Browns||BAL, CIN, PIT||+5000||+3500|
|Dallas Cowboys||NYG, PHI, WAS||+900||+20000|
|Denver Broncos||KC, LV, LAC||+20000||+1400|
|Detroit Lions||CHI, GB, MIN||+12500||+1200|
|Green Bay Packers||CHI, DET, MIN||+2200||+6500|
|Houston Texans||IND, JAX, TEN||+3000||+5000|
|Indianapolis Colts||HOU, JAX, TEN||+1200||+25000|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||HOU, IND, TEN||+100000||+400|
|Kansas City Chiefs||DEN, LV, LAC||+240||+100000|
|Las Vegas Raiders||DEN, KC, LAC||+25000||+1100|
|Los Angeles Chargers||DEN, KC, LV||+10000||+2500|
|Los Angeles Rams||ARI, SF, SEA||+5000||+3000|
|Miami Dolphins||BUF, NE, NYJ||+15000||+1100|
|Minnesota Vikings||CHI, DET, GB||+1600||+8000|
|New England Patriots||BUF, MIA, NYJ||+1600||+10000|
|New Orleans Saints||ATL, CAR, TB||+700||+50000|
|New York Giants||DAL, PHI, WAS||+10000||+1800|
|New York Jets||BUF, MIA, NE||+10000||+1800|
|Philadelphia Eagles||DAL, NYG, WAS||+900||+20000|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||BAL, CIN, CLE||+2500||+8000|
|San Francisco 49ers||ARI, LAR, SEA||+750||+25000|
|Seattle Seahawks||ARI, LAR, SF||+4000||+3000|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||ATL, CAR, NO||+2000||+10000|
|Tennessee Titans||HOU, IND, JAX||+1400||+12500|
|Washington||DAL, NYG, PHI||+50000||+500|
Odds taken June 9.
Can Chiefs Go 6-0 in AFC West Again?
It’s no surprise that Kansas City is given the best odds to go undefeated in their division. Since 2015, the Chiefs are an incredible 27-3 in divisional games, an NFL-best in that time.
Add in the fact that they’re the defending Super Bowl champions, are given the best odds to win Super Bowl 55, and no team in the AFC West is projected to win more than eight games based on NFL win totals, and it’s easy to see why sportsbooks are offering them at just +240.
But is there any value in betting Kansas City at this short price? Let’s use the opening lines for every week of the 2020 NFL season to dive deeper into what the moneylines will likely be for their six divisional games.
Projected Moneyline Odds in Kansas City’s Divisional Games
|Week||Opponent||Opening Spread||Chiefs’ ML Based Off Spread||Profit from $100 Bet||Profit if Rolling Over Previous Winnings|
|5||vs LV||KC -12.5||-1307||$7.70||$9.78 ($127 risk)|
|7||@DEN||KC -5.5||-260||$38.50||$52.66 ($136.78 risk)|
|11||@LV||KC -6||-285||$35.10||$66.49 ($189.44 risk)|
|13||vs DEN||KC -11.5||-1222||$8.20||$20.99 ($255.93 risk)|
|17||vs LAC||KC -11||-1046||$9.60||$26.58 ($276.92 risk)|
|–||–||–||–||TOTAL = $118.40||TOTAL = $303.50|
A Smarter Way to Bet the Chiefs
If you do believe Kansas City will go 6-0 in the AFC West for a second straight year, the smarter way to bet it is to simply take them on the moneyline in each of these six games. But don’t just risk the $100 (or whatever you were going to risk on this prop) each week. To ensure maximum profit, roll over the winnings from each week – as seen in the table above.
Of course, these ML odds will not be the exact same when they’re available to the public the week of the game, but I don’t see them shifting that much more in favor of Kansas City. So not only are you likely to receive a better payout this way, but you also have an escape should Patrick Mahomes get injured, or if the Chiefs have nothing to play for in Week 17 against the Chargers.
Odds Say Bengals Are Most Likely to Go 0-6 in Divisional Games
In each of the last two seasons, the Bengals have gone 1-5 against the rest of the AFC North. With Baltimore seen as a top Super Bowl contender, the Steelers getting Ben Roethlisberger back, and the Browns giving a new coach a shot to make all the talent work that they’ve assembled, it could be another tough year for Cincinnati.
QBs with a 70.0+ PFF grade throwing into a tight window in 2019
Joe Burrow, LSU
Jamie Newman pic.twitter.com/nywFLzt5d5
— PFF College (@PFF_College) June 3, 2020
But that’s the glass-half-empty outlook on the 2020 Bengals. The half-full outlook sees a very talented Joe Burrow take over an offense that has some weapons in AJ Green (did not play a game last year), second-round pick Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon, not to mention they’ll get 2019 first-round pick Jonah Williams suiting up for the first time, as well.
I’m not saying the Bengals will compete for the division, but I am expecting them to surprise us a few weeks this season. Not knowing what to expect out of the Browns this season, as well as a Week 17 date with the Ravens – who may be resting starters at that point – makes the +350 odds on the Bengals going 0-6 in their division a bad bet.
Where’s the Value in Betting This Prop?
In searching for value with this prop, you need to identify some teams who are being heavily overvalued or undervalued – your obvious statement of the year.
But you’re unlikely to find those teams on either end of the spectrum right now. It’s going to be someone in the second tier from each end, who (a) plays in a very weak/tough division, and (b) will see their weekly lines change dramatically after they reveal their true selves after the first few weeks.
I see one team who presents value to win all six divisional games: the Indianapolis Colts at +1200.
Most valuable Offensive Lines in 2019 per PFF WAR
— PFF (@PFF) June 8, 2020
Indianapolis’ only hole last season was at quarterback – I’d listen to the argument that they didn’t have much help at WR, either. Jacoby Brissett ranked 33rd in PFF’s passer grading, and posted a passer rating south of 77 in seven of his 15 starts in 2019. Philip Rivers isn’t an MVP-caliber quarterback, but he is going to be a major upgrade at the position.
Add in Michael Pittman Jr, and the Colts’ receiving corps looks pretty decent, assuming TY Hilton and Parris Campbell stay healthy. Rivers will also have Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor to lean on, along with one of the best offensive lines in the game.
Quick look at the #Colts offseason so far. ?
Draft Picks (1-4):
Michael Pittman Jr.
Jacob Eason pic.twitter.com/X3bITHpiPy
— Indy SportsOne (@IndySportsOne) May 3, 2020
But the biggest addition Indianapolis made this offseason was acquiring DeForest Buckner from the 49ers. His presence up front will take an average defense from 2019 and make them a top ten unit.
The Colts will be able to bully the fading Texans, beat the Titans at their own game, and the Jaguars’ win total is as low as 4.5.
There’s one team I see value in betting to go win-less in their division as well: the Los Angeles Rams.
*RB Todd Gurley
*LB Dante Fowler
*DT Michael Brockers
*LB Cory Littleton
*LB Clay Matthews
*CB Nickell Robey-Coleman
*S Eric Weddle
*DC Wade Phillips
Brandin Cooks name has come up in trade talks. And they don't have a 1st-round pick this year or next year.
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) March 19, 2020
LA went all-in on their Super Bowl 53 run and are now paying the consequences with nearly $34 million in dead cap for the 2020 season, third-most in the NFL.
Their defense has lost a lot of talent and, outside of Aaron Donald, don’t look very good on paper anymore. LA also failed to address their offensive line struggles in the offseason. The Rams were fourth-worst in pass blocking last season and seventh-worst in run blocking, per PFF. Yet, they’re going to roll the same unit out there in 2020.
In a very tough NFC West that features a 49ers team who is very strong in the trenches and reigning NFC champions, a Seahawks team led by one of the best QBs in the league in Russell Wilson, and a Cardinals team that many are viewing as dark-horse contender, no win is going to come easy.
At +3000, betting the Rams to go 0-6 in divisional games this season is worth a few bucks.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.