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Bettors are Optimistic About Dolphins’ 2018 Regular Season

Ryan Tannehill of the Miami Dolphins preparing to throw the football
Ryan Tannehill's return to the Dolphins from injury has inspired bettors to side with the OVER on their season win total. Photo By: Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Since opening at an average of 6 wins, the Dolphins Season Win Total market has moved as high as 7
  • Which offseason moves could have the biggest impact on their improvement?
  • How could their schedule help them get off to a good start?

2017 was not kind to Fins fans. They started the year with one hand behind their back when starting QB Ryan Tannehill went down with a knee injury before the season even started. They were also forced to play 16 straight games without a bye due to Hurricane Irma delaying the start of their season. Things never got better, and Miami finished 6-10 and 5-9-2 ATS.

When NFL Season Win Totals were released, the Dolphins opened at 5.5 and 6 wins at most online sports betting sites. Since, the OVER has taken money with their win totals rising to anywhere from 6.5-7.

The 5.5 total was likely a little low for an opener as it was heavily juiced at -240 at BetOnline, meaning we basically had 6’s across the board for opening totals. But why have bettors been buying stock in the Fish?

Miami Dolphins 2018 Season Win Total

Opening 2018 Win Total Odds Current 2018 Win Total Odds
Bovada 6 O/U (-140/+110) 6.5 O/U (-125/-105)
BetOnline 5.5 O/U (-240/+200) 6.5 O/U (-120/+100)
MyBookie 6 O/U (-135/+105) 7 O/U (-135/+105)

Offseason Moves

With a young roster, Dolphins backers are hoping for big contributions from a few veteran additions such as WR Danny Amendola and RB Frank Gore. Amendola is a reliable receiving option with championship experience from his time in New England. Gore is a hometown guy, motivated to play in the city he grew up in, who has 77 TDs in his career.

With Tannehill missing out on all of last season, his return to the lineup is almost like a new signing. Tannehill was credited with remaining very involved with the team despite his injury, and surely will be an upgrade over Jay Cutler.

Cutler was pulled out of retirement last season when Tannehill went down, and threw for 2,666 yards with only 19 TDs to 14 INTs. He’s now back in retirement, still showcasing his unenthusiastic personality on his wife’s reality TV show Very Cavallari.

Dolphins’ 2018 Key Additions/Departures

2018 Key Additions 2018 Key Departures
Danny Amendola (WR) Ndamukong Suh (DT)
Frank Gore (RB) Mike Pouncey (C)
Josh Sitton (G) Jarvis Landry (WR)
Robert Quinn (DE)
Minkah Fitzpatrick (S)

Reasons for Optimism?

There were some bright spots for the Dolphins last year with Reshad Jones leading all safeties with 122 tackles. RB Kenyan Drake also came on strong towards the end of the season after the trade of Jay Ajayi. Drake led the league in rushing from Weeks 13-17.

Potential for Strong Start to Season

The New England Patriots are the clear-cut favorites to win the AFC East, but someone else has to win some games in the division. Why not the Dolphins? The other participants in this division certainly don’t inspire confidence with the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills also being lined around 6 and 6.5 wins in the 2018 Season Win Total market.

It’s anyone’s guess who starts at QB for the Jets with a trio of the steady, yet unspectacular, Josh McCown, new signing Teddy Bridgewater (who has attempted two passes in two years, one of which was intercepted) and rookie Sam Darnold as their choices. The Bills’ QB situation is just as murky with AJ McCarron, Nathan Peterman, and Josh Allen fighting for the starting job.

Of Miami’s first seven games of the season, only the New England Patriots are projected to have a winning record on the year

Miami will also have the benefit of playing the 14th easiest schedule based on opening season projected win totals. If you look at how their schedule breaks down, Miami only faces one team, the Patriots, who are currently projected to have a clear winning record during the first seven weeks of their schedule.

Two, the Titans and Raiders, fluctuate between eight or nine wins, and the rest of their opponents during this time average 7.5 or fewer projected wins.

Finally, fans and bettors could be buying into Head Coach Adam Gase as much as the players are. Gase brought the Fins to the playoffs in 2016 for the first time since 2008, and clearly has the confidence of his players.

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Ryan has always enjoyed playing, watching, writing about, and betting sports. Though winning is always the end goal—he enjoys the whole process of doing the research, finding value, and putting together the pieces of the puzzle that make up placing a bet.