Patriots vs Bills Betting Trends – Majority of Public Money Is on New England to Win

• The Bills are 2.5-point home favorites over the Patriots on Monday night
• The Patriots are drawing 51% of the handle ATS and 55% of the bets
• The wagering trends for this AFC East showdown can be found below

The New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills in a pivotal AFC East game Monday night at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., and the public money is pretty much split between the teams when it comes to the point spread.

As 2.5-point underdogs, the Patriots are drawing 51% of the spread handle and 55% of the bets. New England (8-4) has won six games in a row to move to the top of the division standings, 0.5 game ahead of the Bills (7-4), who won two of their last three games.

Patriots vs Bills Betting Trends

Odds as of December 6th at DraftKings

Slight ATS Move Toward Pats

The Bills opened as three-point favorites coming off a 31-6 rout of the Saints in New Orleans on Thanksgiving. Josh Allen, always a prop betting favorite, passed for 260 yards and four touchdowns.

Choose your fighter…#GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/lLKl14DwX4

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 27, 2021

The line got bet down to 2.5 early, went back up to three by midweek and has now returned to 2.5. As mentioned above, the wagering has been close to even despite the Patriots being one of the hottest teams in the league.

However, a lot of the public money begin shifting to the Bills by the middle and latter part of the week. As of last Tuesday, 75% of the handle and 71% of the bets had gone on the Patriots. Those percentages have leveled off to almost dead even.

The Patriots’ latest victory came a week ago Sunday, 36-13 over the AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones threw for 310 yards and two touchdowns.

Jones loves his football.

Just two pals who can't get enough football.@MacJones_10 & @DHx34 took in some MIAA High School Championships this week at @GilletteStadium pic.twitter.com/5eFY0G5PM9

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) December 3, 2021

Total Goes Down

The over/under has dropped 2.5 points in a week. It opened at 43.5 and now stands at 41.

The reason behind that movement appears to be the sharps forecasting this to be a low-scoring game. As of last Tuesday, the over was getting 72% of the bets but 76% of the handle was going on the under. That’s a sure sign of the pros fading the public.

It is not surprising the sharps like the under. The Patriots lead the NFL in scoring defense with 15.8 points allowed a game and the Bills are second with a 16.5 average.

Who's got red sleeves & ranks 2nd among OLBs in the #ProBowlVote?!

RT to get @man_dammn to the top. pic.twitter.com/lyUQD1JVW0

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) December 2, 2021

Currently, 76% of the bets are on the over along with 57% of the handle.

Six of the Patriots’ 12 games this season have gone under but just two of the last eight. The under has been the winning play in six of the Bills’ 11 games but only one of the past three.

Moneyline Falls

The Bills opened at -166 on the moneyline and the Patriots were +140. Those odds have fallen to -140 and +120.

The Patriots have attracted 61% of the ML handle and 62% of the bets. That is down from percentage of 73 and 68 on New England as of last Thursday.