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Patriots vs Bills – Best Team and Player Prop Bets for MNF Week 13

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Dec 5, 2021 · 5:49 PM PST

Josh Allen passes, Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) passes in the first half of an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints in New Orleans, Thursday, Nov. 25, 2021. (AP Photo/Derick Hingle)
  • The New England Patriots (8-4) visit the Buffalo Bills (7-4) with first place in the AFC East on the line
  • Week 12 Record: 0-6, -4.0 units; 2021 record: 14-36, -13.01 units
  • Monday Night Football kicks off at 8:15 pm EST from Highmark Stadium; See the best player prop bets

A week after the Seattle Seahawks failed to live up to their end of the bargain on Monday Night Football, Week 13’s final game is guaranteed to bring the excitement.

With first place in the AFC East on the line, the New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills. The stakes are as high as you can get.

New England is among the hottest teams in the NFL and, typically, turning into a November juggernaut. They’ve won six in a row and head to Orchard Park to take on the Bills. Buffalo is 3-3 over their last six.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 pm EST on ESPN on Monday Night.

Patriots vs Bills Player Props

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards  Passing TD
Mac Jones, NE 19.5 (O -110 / U -120) 200.5 (O -115 / U -115) 1.5 (O +165 / U -230)
Josh Allen, BUF 21.5 (O +105 / U -140) 234.5 (O -115 / U -115) 1.5 (O -105 / U -125)
Player Rushing Attempts Rushing Yards Rushing + Receiving Yards
Mac Jones, NE N/A 5.5 (O -115 / U -115) 208.5 (O -115 / U -115)*
Damien Harris, NE 11.5 (O -114 / U -114) 48.5 (O -120 / U -110) 57.5 (O -110 / U -120)
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE N/A 43.5 (O -110 / U -120) N/A
Devin Singletary, BUF N/A 37.5 (O -115 / U -115) N/A
Josh Allen, BUF 7.5 (O -108 / U -122) 35.5 (O -115 / U -115) 273.5 (O -115 / U -115)*
RB/WR/TE Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Hunter Henry, NE 2.5 (O -120 / U -110) 23.5 (O -115 / U -115) 13.5 (O -120 / U -110)
Jakobi Meyers, NE 3.5 (O -150 / U +115) 41.5 (O -110 / U -125) 18.5 (O -110 / U -120)
Jonnu Smith, NE N/A 16.5 (O -110 / U -120) N/A
Kendrick Bourne, NE 2.5 (O -180 / U +135) 31.5 (O -115 / U -115) 16.5 (O -115 / U -115)
Nelson Agholor, NE N/A 21.5 (O -115 / U -115) N/A
Dawson Knox, BUF 2.5 (O -175 / U +130) 28.5 (O -115 / U -115) 15.5 (O -110 / U -120)
Stefon Diggs, BUF 4.5 (O -135 / U +100) 61.5 (O -115 / U -115) 22.5 (O -115 / U -115)
Cole Beasley, BUF 3.5 (O +130 / U -175) 30.5 (O -110 / U -120) 15.5 (O -110 / U -120)
Emmanuel Sanders, BUF 3.5 (O +135 / U -180) 34.5 (O -110 / U -120) 17.5 (O -110 / U -120)

Odds as of December 5th at DraftKings

*Indicates Pass + Rush Yards

Buffalo enters as 2.5-point home favorites, as they look to reclaim top spot in the AFC East.

Josh Allen and the Bills have an interesting trend going against Bill Belichick: Allen’s offense  always outscores their previous game’s total. The Bills hung 24 and 38 points on Belichick’s defense last season.

Bills Eyeing a Cole Beasley Breakout

The Patriots got torched on the ground by the Titans last week. Their defense was mad about it, so expect them to pay some extra attention to that facet of their game this week.

In hopes of limiting the Bills’ opportunities on the ground, that may open up the passing game.

Cole Beasley dominated the Patriots in his first two games after he joined the Bills. He notched two seven-catch games and over 180 yards. In 2020 he only brought in five catches in their two games.

In 2021 he’s gone over his projected total eight times. Beasley has averaged 5.8 targets and 4.8 receptions the last four.

New England has played a ton of one-sided contests recently, so their numbers  against wide receivers are skewed. They’ve controlled the clock, but the Bills won’t roll over in a divisional game.

Beasley will be a big part of that.

  • Cole Beasley OVER 3.5 receptions (+135); 1 unit

Jakobi Meyers Is Mac Jones’ Go-To

Jakobi Meyers has evolved into the Patriots’ constant.

After catching 26-of-41 targets in Tom Brady’s final season, Meyers saw his targets rise to 81 last year, and 91 this year. Sitting at 620 receiving yards, it’s a formality that Meyers establishes a new career high.

It’s rare that Meyers crosses into 80+ yard territory, but that’s not what he’s being asked to do.

Meyers has gone over his total in eight of 12 games this season. Three of his misses finished in the high 30s.

While Buffalo lost Tre’Davious White, they still have Taron Johnson and Levi Wallace. In the last two weeks Lil’Jordan Humphrey is the only receiver the Bills have allowed to cross the 40-yard threshold.

In the nine weeks before that, the Bills allowed 12 receivers to surpass Meyers’ total. With a low number set for a trusted target, Meyers should hit even on a windy Monday night.

  • The Pick: Jakobi Meyers OVER 41.5 receiving yards (-110); 1 unit

Patriots vs Bills Scoring Props

Player Odds to Score First TD Odds to Score a TD
Damien Harris, NE +850 +150
Stefon Diggs, BUF +900 +150
Devin Singletary, BUF +1000 +180
Josh Allen, BUF +1100 +200
Dawson Knox, BUF +1100 +200
Matt Breida, BUF +1400 +240
Emmanuel Sanders, BUF +1400 +275
Kendrick Bourne, NE +1400 +260
Jakobi Meyers, NE +1400 +260
Hunter Henry, NE +1400 +260

Odds as of December 5th at DraftKings

The Patriots have been efficient on their six-game winning streak, scoring first four times. Buffalo has been far less predictable, failing to score a TD twice in five weeks.

There’s a key absence for the Patriots that impacts their coverage. Kyle Dugger.

The second-year safety went on the Covid-19 list last week. It’s believed he didn’t travel to Buffalo.

That’s a big loss to a team that leans heavily on a three-safety package. The Bills could take a few shots to their tight ends early on, which is a nice spot for Dawson Knox.

In terms of other scorers, JC Jackson will likely spend a lot of time following Stefon Diggs which could free up Emmanuel Sanders.

For the Patriots, running back Damien Harris is their closer. He’s 10th in red zone touches among RBs this year, and top ten in TDs.

If you’re feeling bold, a classic Belichick move would be a red zone appearance from Jonnu Smith. Smith is coming off arguably his best game of the season.

  • Dawson Knox to score FIRST touchdown (+1100); 0.5 Units
  • Dawson Knox (+200), Emmanuel Sanders (+275) and Damien Harris (+150) to score ANYTIME; 0.5 units each
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