Patriots vs Bills Odds, Lines, Picks, and Predictions for Week 13 Monday Night Football

• It’s a battle for first in the AFC East as the Patriots visit the Bills
• Monday Betting Record: 1-1 ML; 3-6 ATS; 2-1 O/U; -3.05 units
• Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

With Tom Brady in Tampa and the Buffalo Bills running amok last year en route to their first division title in 25 years, it appeared the New England Patriots were settling into some kind of a rebuild.

Yet, after just one down season, they’re leading the division, in chase of the top seed in the conference, and visiting a Bills’ squad with first place on the line in the AFC East — and riding a 6-game win streak in the process.

After inconsistent play plaguing them since a 4-1 start, Buffalo can reclaim top spot in the division and get back to the business of being a top Super Bowl contender.

It makes for a must-see Monday Night showdown from Highmark Stadium in upstate New York. The Bills are currently listed as 3-point favorites. Kick-off goes at 8:15pm ET, and can be seen live on ESPN.

Patriots vs Bills Odds

Odds as of Dec 5th at DraftKings.

Mac Jones vs Josh Allen

Of the many battles to dissect, quarterback play will be front and center Monday night.

Mac Jones has been the best rookie QB from the 2021 class, and it’s not close. He’s coming off his best game of the season, throwing for a season-high 310 yards and a pair of TD passes in a 36-13 thrashing of the Tennessee Titans.

Mac Jones 🎯 Kendrick Bourne

Art 🖼
pic.twitter.com/F59EkIrSIo

— PFF (@PFF) November 28, 2021

During the Patriots’ six-game win streak, Jones is completing 69.4% of his passes for 1,378 yards, with nine TD tosses against two interceptions.

Buffalo’s Josh Allen is having a good year — just not the world-wrecking season he had a year ago. His inconsistency has mirrored the team’s successes and failures. Last week, he was dominant in a 31-6 demolition of the Saints.

Josh Allen’s 4th TD gives the Bills a 31-6 lead over the Saints! pic.twitter.com/VXtxfWIajK

— Pigskinworld (@Pigskin_World) November 26, 2021

In their seven wins, Allen has thrown 19 TDs and five picks, while running for three more scores. He’s helped the Bills’ offense pump out 37 points a game.

In four losses, Allen has six TD passes and five interceptions and two lost fumbles, with the Bills putting up 17 points a game. He’s also been sacked 11 times in losses vs six in wins.

New England D vs Bills D

This game will feature the top two defenses in the NFL, and should play a big part in who sits atop the division after Week 13.

New England has held teams to just 63 points total in the last six games, surrendering more than 13 points just once on this run.

MATTHEW JUDON WITH THE SACK!!! pic.twitter.com/z7DVuqIOiD

— Ben Brown 🌻 (@BenBrownPL) November 28, 2021

On the year, they’re first in scoring defense, holding teams to 15.8 points per game. They’re stout across the field, as their 30 sacks rank fifth in the NFL, with Matt Judon leading the way with 11.5 sacks.

The Pats lead the league with 19 interceptions, with JC Jackson in second with seven picks, including four in his last four games. He’ll be looking to pounce on any Allen mistakes, as the Bills’ pivot has thrown seven interceptions in his last four games.

Buffalo’s defense is second in opponent scoring, surrendering 16.5 points a game, while they have held opposing QB’s to a 62.8 passer rating, which ranks first in the NFL.

Jordan Poyer picks up his 5th interception of the season 🔒

That should do it.#BUFvsNO | #BillsMafiapic.twitter.com/o1ahDb8uP6

— Bills Cold Front Report (@ColdFrontReport) November 26, 2021

They’re second to the Patriots in interceptions with 16, and they are tied with New England in second in takeaways, with 25.

Still, this is a defense that’s taken its lumps, most recently by Jonathan Taylor and the Colts, who ran wild in a 41-15 win. They’ve also had Derrick Henry and the Titans drop 34 on them in a loss.

Buffalo will also be down top corner Tre’Davious White, who’s out for the year after suffering an ACL injury.

Patriots vs Bills Pick

It will be interesting to see what kind of scheme Bill Belichick has in store for Allen, which could include more blitzes than usual to force him into making mistakes.

The Bills have played win-loss football the last six weeks, with a loss on tap if the pattern continues. But look for that trend to break, though, as the defending division champs find a way to rattle the rookie Jones.

Expect it to be a close one, however, with the result likely coming down to the wire.

Pick: Bills ML (1.5 units to win 1 unit)