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Patriots Only Listed as -250 Favorites to Win AFC East in 2020, Opened at -500 Last Year

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NFL Football

Updated Apr 7, 2020 · 11:50 AM PDT

Julian Edelman shaking hands with a Marine
Julian Edelman and the New England Patriots have opened as -250 favorites to win the AFC East in 2020. Photo by U.S. Cpl. Melissa Martens/ Released.
  • The New England Patriots have opened as -250 favorites to win the AFC East in 2020
  • The Patriots have won the division title in each of the last 11 seasons
  • With Tom Brady potentially leaving New England, is there value betting on the Bills or Jets to win the AFC East?

The New England Patriots have won the AFC East title 11 straight years. Could that streak be in jeopardy in 2020? With rumors of Tom Brady’s potential departure, the Pats have opened as -250 favorites in the NFL divisional odds, considerably longer than their -500 opening odds last season.

Is there value with the Pats here or will we see a changing of the guard?

2020 AFC East Odds

Team Odds
New England Patriots -250
Buffalo Bills +350
New York Jets +700
Miami Dolphins +2000

Odds taken Mar. 3rd

Patriots Open As -250 Favorites

The fact that New England’s opening odds have been cut in half (as compared to last season) speaks of just how much the situation has changed. This is a team that won 12 games last season and, even though Brady didn’t have a banner year, he’s still viewed as the glue that keeps this team together.

https://twitter.com/FTBeard1/status/1233146188725026816

The Patriots are still a sizable favorite even though lots could change with the team. If they get Brady back, their odds will shorten – probably to the -300 or -400 range.

If they lose Brady, they could end up in the vicinity of -150. If you bet on the Pats now, you’re basically speculating on what Brady will do.

Opening 2020 NFL Divisional Odds for All Divisions
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Forget The Dolphins, Jets

It’s quite clear that the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets are not teams that are going to be challenging for a division crown in 2020. After all, the Dolphins finished just 5-11 and many view that as an over-achievement. They’re likely to start fresh with a rookie quarterback and that could set them back.

As for the Jets, they seem to have their quarterback of the future in Sam Darnold, but nobody is quite certain just how good he is. The team actually finished well, winning six of their final eight games, but many of those wins came against bad teams. They were smoked by Baltimore and, much more concerningly, Cincinnati down the stretch, so they’re still a long way away from being a contender.

What’s worse is the Jets appear to have a lot of internal turmoil. Who is going to catch passes for them next season if Robby Anderson leaves via free agency (as expected)? Does Jamal Adams really want to be with the team? Does head coach Adam Gase actually want Le’Veon Bell on the roster?

The Jets seem to have a very shaky foundation – one that doesn’t indicate that they’ll be ready to compete for a division crown next season.

What About The Bills?

Of course, the Bills would be mostly likely to benefit if the Pats do stumble. After all, they won 10 games last season and appear to be a team on the rise. Quarterback Josh Allen is moving into his third season as a starter, running back Devin Singletary is coming off a strong rookie campaign and this team is generally well-coached.

Beyond all of that, the Bills will have a ton of cap space to work with. They’re currently projected to have the third-most cap space ($82.2 million) entering free agency, so they can make some big additions to the roster. We’ll see what they do but they have an opening to really fortify their young, strong roster.

At the same time, it really feels like the Bills overachieved last season. They beat a lot of bad teams and didn’t look good in their games against playoff-caliber opponents. It really feels like the type of situation where they could improve next season but finish with fewer wins.

What’s The Best Bet?

I’m not willing to bet against the Patriots here for a couple of reasons. To start, I think Brady is coming back and they’re going to add some pieces to the offense to make him happy. Secondly, if he’s not back, they should be just fine with one of the many veteran options that will be available.

We have to realize that Brady finished with quarterback ratings under 89.0 in 12 of his final 14 contests last season. Sure, he didn’t have a lot of help around him, but it’s starting to feel like he might be at the end of the line. If that’s the case, maybe the Pats get someone like Philip Rivers or Andy Dalton and find a way to still be competitive.

Remember, they are still loaded with one of the best defenses in the NFL, so the new quarterback won’t have to do a lot. Whether it’s Brady or anyone else, this is still the soundest team in the division with one of the best coaches (Bill Belichick) in NFL history. At -250, there’s good value here.

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