Patriots vs Jets Best Player Props to Bet for TNF in Week 3

• The Patriots face the Jets on Thursday Night Football in Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season on
  September 19
• Jacoby Brissett has completed 15 or fewer passes in both of his starts this year
• Check out the Patriots vs Jets player prop odds and best bets below

It’s the Patriots versus the Jets on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 3. Aaron Rodgers and Co. will make their 2024 home debut, in a game that’s relatively light on star power.

Aside from Rodgers, New York features a pair of blue chip offensive players in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. As for New England, it’s hard to make the case for a single star on their entire roster.

Nevertheless, with online sportsbooks reporting a record amount of wagers on the NFL primetime games so far, this contest is sure to draw plenty of action, especially in the NFL player props market.

Passing numbers are down league wide in 2024, and we should expect that trend to continue in this divisional matchup.

Patriots vs Jets Player Props

The over/under on Rodgers’ passing yards prop is just 212.5 yards. Shockingly, that’s substantially higher than his counterpart. Jacoby Brissett’s line sits at 165.6 passing yards, and the under on 17.5 completions is where we’ll start our Patriots vs Jets player props betting card.

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Patriots vs Jets Prop #1: Jacoby Brissett Completions

New England is a near touchdown underdog in the latest NFL odds. However, let’s not assume they’re going to be throwing the ball early and often in catchup mode. Only three teams ranked lower in pass rate over expectation in Week 2, after the Pats were bottom-11 in that category in Week 1.

pass rate over expected so far this season (using the @nflfastR model) pic.twitter.com/TZfNwrZSnX

— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) September 18, 2024

Attacking the Jets through the air is not a recipe for success. They have an elite corner duo and strong safety play, but struggle on the ground. New York grades out as the fifth worst run defense per Pro Football Focus, compared to a top-7 coverage unit.

Brissett has completed 15 passes or fewer in each of his first two starts, and will be hard pressed to exceed that number on Thursday. Expect a heavy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson (more on him later), allowing Brissett to manage the game and keep the Jets offense off the field.

• Patriots vs Jets Prop Picks: Brissett under 17.5 completions (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings

Patriots vs Jets Prop #2: Allen Lazard Receptions

Sticking with unders, our next target is Allen Lazard’s reception total. He may be Rodgers’ bff, but his usage in Week 2 is a clear indication of his skillset. Lazard is an excellent run blocker, but a distant option in the passing game. He caught just two passes for 11 yards last week against the Titans, as New York deployed a run heavy game plan en route to victory.

Rodgers’ completions and yardage props suggest online sportsbooks expect another run dominant scheme versus the Patriots. As a result, that means fewer opportunities for New York pass catchers. Lazard’s snaps also declined from 51% to 47% in Week 2, while teammate Mike Williams’ rose from 18% to 61%.

• Patriots vs Jets Prop Picks: Lazard Under 2.5 Receptions (+100); risk 1 unit at DraftKings

Patriots vs Jets Touchdown Scorer Props

Shifting to the touchdown props, we’ll find value on Stevenson in the anytime TD market. Stevenson is the focal point of the New England offense and has a stranglehold on the Pats red zone carries. He’s accounted for 70% of New England’s rushes inside the 20 so far this season, and 100% of their rushes inside the 10.

The Jets have already allowed three rushing touchdowns through two weeks, and Stevenson is a great bet to add to that total.

• Patriots vs Jets Prop Picks: Stevenson anytime touchdown (+135); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook