Saints Odds to Make Playoffs Fade from -500 to -170; Is There Value Betting Them to Miss?
- Drew Brees is expected to miss up to six weeks after undergoing surgery on his thumb
- With Brees sidelined, New Orleans has tumbled to a -170 bet to make the NFC playoffs
- Veteran backup Teddy Bridgewater will be key to the Saints’ success during Brees’ absence
With quarterback Drew Brees sidelined indefinitely due to surgery on the thumb on his throwing hand, the New Orleans Saints’ odds to make the NFL playoffs have taken a severe hit, tumbling from -500 just a week ago to -170.
Will the New Orleans Saints Make the NFL Playoffs?
| Odds to Make Playoffs | Odds to Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|
| -170 | +140 |
Odds taken on 09/19/19.
Brees Injury Puts Saints in Unfamiliar Territory
After twice trailing by 11 points, the Saints rallied to knock off the Houston Texans in Week 1, kicking a last-second 58-yard field goal to eke out a 30-28 victory. While the Saints defense struggled for a spell, allowing Houston to reach the end zone on three straight possessions, Brees put in his typical Hall-of-Fame performance in the second half, leading his team back from a 21-10 deficit late in the third quarter while piling up 370 passing yards and two touchdowns.
Just insane. Here are the final two drives of the Saints vs. Texans via @thecheckdown pic.twitter.com/TIDKw7ejnO
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) September 10, 2019
The Saints looked lost last Sunday after Brees left the team’s clash in Los Angeles. With veteran Teddy Bridgewater taking over under center, New Orleans mustered just 244 total yards, driving inside the Rams’ red zone just once and settling for a trio of field goals in a disappointing 27-9 loss to the reigning NFC champions.
Despite the loss of Brees for a prolonged period … the Saints remain a favorite to return to the NFL playoffs for a third straight year.
Despite the loss of Brees for a prolonged period (for the first time since his arrival in New Orleans in 2006), the Saints remain a favorite to return to the NFL playoffs for a third straight year.
Saints Enjoy Favorable Schedule During Brees’ Absence
The Saints continue their toughest three-week stretch of the season this weekend, as they travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks on Sunday afternoon as 4.5-point underdogs, before returning home for a Week 4 date with the undefeated Dallas Cowboys.
#Saints (1-1) schedule:
Week 3: @ #Seahawks
Week 4: #Cowboys (SNF)
Week 5: #Bucs
Week 6: @ #Jaguars
Week 7: @ #Bears
Week 8: #Cardinals
Week 9: Bye
Week 10: #Falcons— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 16, 2019
However, opportunity knocks as the calendar turns to October, with each of next four matchups coming against offensively-challenged opponents, including Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Chicago, and Arizona.
Scheduled Return Coincides with Run of Divisional Matchups
If Brees’ rehab remains on schedule, his return should coincide with the start of a crucial run of four November contests that features a trio of divisional matchups, including a pair of dates with the Atlanta Falcons.
While the Falcons have produced inconsistent results during a 1-1 start, they represent the Saints’ toughest competition in the NFC South, and sit second to New Orleans as a +200 wager to win the division.
With quarterback Matt Ryan leading the offense, the Falcons ranked fourth in the NFC with 25.9 points scored per game last season, but have also lost three straight to New Orleans while tallying just 22.3 points per game.
QB Struggles in Tampa Bay, Carolina Benefit Saints
In addition, the current outlook for both the Buccaneers and Panthers works favorably for New Orleans. Already sporting an 0-2 record, the Panthers face further uncertainty as quarterback Cam Newton battles a foot injury that looks increasingly likely to sideline him for at least this weekend’s meeting with the Cardinals.
Jameis Winston’s career stats are truly awful. Does he have any defenders left in the country? I think even FSU fans have abandoned him. pic.twitter.com/6i1aHb9esj
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) September 13, 2019
As for the Buccaneers, while their stout defense stood tall against Carolina last weekend, they face huge question marks on offense. Quarterback Jameis Winston has connected on just 59% of pass attempts, and tossed two TDs against three picks. Winston has also been sacked on three occasions in each of the team’s first two outings.
Bridgewater, Kamara Key to Saints’ Short-Term Success
Of course, much of New Orleans’ future depends on the effectiveness of Bridgewater in Brees’ absence. The 26-year-old showed obvious rust after coming on in relief against the Rams, throwing for just 165 yards while getting sacked twice.
Bridgewater has also made just one start since the end of the 2015 NFL season, leading the team to a meaningless 33-14 loss to Carolina in Week 17 of last season.
What a letdown: Drew Brees is out with what appears to be a thumb injury. At least Teddy Bridgewater has played in a big playoff game before. But now it must be the Alvin Kamara show.
— Skip Bayless (@RealSkipBayless) September 15, 2019
That means that the Saints’ backfield will face an increased workload, particularly running back Alvin Kamara, who racked up over 1,500 totals yards of offense in each of the past two seasons, and now sports attractive +4000 odds of leading the NFL in rushing yards this season.
Picks: Saints make the NFL playoffs (-170), Saints win the NFC South (-115)
Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
