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SBD Experts’ NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 2

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Sep 16, 2022 · 5:02 PM PDT

NFL ATS picks
Sep 11, 2022; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders wide receiver Jahan Dotson (1) celebrates with tight end John Bates (87) after catching the game winning touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports
  • Our SBD NFL experts predict their top picks against the spread for NFL Week 2
  • This week we have multiple experts backing the Packers, as well as both sides of the Patriots and Steelers
  • Read on for our expert NFL ATS picks for Week 2 below

Week 2 in the NFL is underway and that means another weekend of NFL ATS picks by SBD’s NFL experts.

Last week we combined for a .600 record, going 6-4 ATS overall.

Each week we’ll pick our top picks against the spread and keep track of our records throughout the season. Read on for this week’s top NFL ATS picks.

NFL ATS Picks Week 2

Matt McEwan Ryan Metivier Zach Reger Bob Duff
Cardinals +5.5 Steelers +2.5 Commanders +1.5 Bucs -2.5
Browns -6.5 Lions -1.5 Steelers +2.5 Packers -9.5
Patriots -2 Dolphins +3.5 Raiders -5 Patriots -2
— — Packers -9.5 —
1-2 Season Record 2-1 Season Record 2-1 Season Record 1-0 Season Record

Odds as of September 16. Check out this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend

The most popular picks among our experts this week in the picks above are the Packers, Patriots and Steelers.

 

 

Matt McEwan

  • Cardinals (+5.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Cardinals got absolutely torched by the Chiefs in Week 1. Derek Carr and Davante Adams very well may do the same in Week 2. But I like the Cardinals’ offense to do a much better job keeping up this Sunday.

Kyler Murray will be forced to use his legs more, which I believe will be a good thing for Arizona’s offense. There’s also optimism around some of the Cardinals’ defense to return from injury, specifically JJ Watt.

  • Browns (-6.5) at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Jets are really bad. Joe Flacco is really bad. The one bright spot from their Week 1 loss was how well they bottled up Baltimore’s running game.

I don’t foresee them having the same type of success against the Browns, who rushed for 217 yards against the Panthers last Sunday. Cleveland’s defense is just as good, if not better than, Baltimore’s. It’s going to be another long day for the Jets offense and the Browns as 6.5-point favorites will cover.

The Patriots actually did a decent job slowing Miami’s speedy offense last week, only allowing 335 total yards, which was tenth-best in the league. It was New England’s offense that was just horrible.

They turned the ball over three times, one of which was a scoop and score for the Dolphins’ defense.

The Pats face another aggressive defense Sunday in the Steelers, who are known for creating their fair share of takeaways. But Pittsburgh will be without TJ Watt, one of the key cogs of their defense. With a little less pressure on Mac Jones, I like New England to score just enough to cover here, in what should be a very defensive game.

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Ryan Metivier

  • Steelers (+2.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

There is little to go off from just one Week 1, but clearly the Steelers have the defense to shut down their opposition, with little help from their offense. Mitchell Trubisky failed to hit 200 yards passing and threw just one TD to Najee Harris. Pat Freiermuth topped the receiving corps with 75 yards and the Steelers, known usually for a strong ground game, saw no one rush for more than 36 yards.

Still, their defense forced five turnovers of Joe Burrow and the Bengals and somehow, through a mix of Benglas’ internal errors, missed challenges, extra points and field goals, Pittsburgh escaped Cincinnati with a 23-20 overtime win.

Cincinnati held 43:43 of the possession and still couldn’t find a way to win. A five-turnover performance from the defense can’t be expected each week. Trubisky will have to do something, eventually. But against the New England Patriots, at home, it may not have to be much. The Pats laid a clunker in Miami in Week 1 losing 20-7. Mac Jones threw for just 213 yards, Jakobi Meyers caught a team-high 55 yards and Damien Harris compiled a team-high 48 yards on the ground, Ouch. To make matters worse, Jones turned up on the injury report this week with a back injury. After facing the high-octane Bengals offense, the Steelers’ defense may feel like they are playing in slow-motion in Week 2 as 2.5-point underdogs.

  • Lions (-1.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It’s a rare sighting. The Lions being listed as chalk. That hasn’t happened since Week 10 in 2020. The Lions opened as 2.5-point favorites, but now Detroit is just 1.5-point chalk. Their defense was under siege last week in allowing 38 points in a losing effort to the Eagles. They could have packed things in when they were down 38-21 entering the fourth quarter but fought back to make a game of it, coming up short 38-35.

The Lions haven’t won many games in recent memory going 3-13-1 last season. But they are cover machines for sports bettors under Dan Campbell at 11-6. They started this season 0-1 SU, but 1-0 ATS. The good news for Lions fans is that if they cover again in Week 2, it’s likely to be a win as well. Jared Goff threw for multiple touchdowns in Week 1 and he’s now done so in five of his past six games. The only time he didn’t in that stretch, was in the one road game in Denver last season. His past five home games have seen him throw 13 TDS to just 2 INTS. I’m siding with the home team Lions in my NFL ATS picks in this one.

  • Dolphins (+3.5) at BetMGM. Grab this BetMGM promo code to make your NFL ATS picks for Week 2

The Dolphins travel to Baltimore at short road dogs with the Ravens listed as 3.5-point favorites. Baltimore comes off a 24-9 win over the Jets, though it took them some time to get rolling as the score was just 10-3 at half. Miami meanwhile jumped ahead early 17-0 over the Patriots by half-time, easing into a 20-7 win.

The Ravens could afford a slow start. Joe Flacco and the Jets’ offense couldn’t find the endzone until the fourth quarter. This, despite outgaining the Ravens 378-274 in total yards and having a 24-13 lead in first downs.

Trouble scoring is unlikely to be the case against Tua Tagovailoa and the Fins’ dynamic wide receiver duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle who combined for 177 yards of offense between them last week. The Fins’ speed versus a slower Ravens’ defense who will be without CB Kyle Fuller (IR this week) could pull the upset but should at least keep this within a field goal for my NFL ATS picks.

Zach Reger

  • Commanders (+1.5) at BetMGM

The Lions are favored for the first time since Week 10 of 2020. In that game, they were favored by 3.5 points to the Carolina Panthers. The Lions lost that game 20-0.

Fast forward to 2022, and the Lions opened as 2.5-point favorites this Sunday against the Commanders. Their line has now moved to only 1.5 despite the public being heavy on the Lions.

But enough about the Lions, the Commanders came out last week and got the win against the Jaguars. Carson Wentz threw for 313 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. Washington has a great, young receiving core of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel. They should be able to feast on Detroit’s secondary that gave up plenty of big plays to the Eagles last week.

  • Steelers (+2.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Just about nothing went right for the Patriots last week. Their offense could not move the ball. Their top rusher ran for 48 yards and their top receiver got just 55 yards. Now they travel to Pittsburgh to face a defense that just forced five turnovers against the defending AFC Champions. TJ  Watt’s absence will make an impact, but the Steelers still have a talented defense that features Minkah Fitzpatrick, Myles Jack, and Cam Heyward. They should hold the stagnant offense of the Patriots to minimal points.

The Steelers have also been great as an underdog under Mike Tomlin. They are now 48-26-3 against the spread as an underdog. That is 64.87%. The number gets even better as home underdogs. The Steelers are 10-4 straight up in their last 14 as home underdogs and are on a five-game winning streak. They are also 12-2 against the spread in that time.

  • Raiders (-5) at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Raiders played pretty badly last week against the Chargers, and it was still just a five-point game. Derek Carr threw three interceptions and was sacked six times. They now host the Arizona Cardinals in their home opener on Sunday. The Cardinals’ defense allowed 360 yards through the air and five passing touchdowns as well as 128 yards on the ground.

The Raiders have one of the most talented receiving cores in the league with Davante Adams, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow. This is a big bounce-back spot for them offensively to take advantage of Arizona’s weak secondary. On the offensive side of the ball, the Cardinals looked lost. 14 of their 21 points came in the fourth quarter when the game was out of reach. The Raiders as 5-point favorites should be able to rout the Cardinals at home after a tough divisional loss to the Chargers last week.

  • Packers (-9.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Yes, the Packers looked lost last week. But this is not the first time the Packers have gotten off to a slow start to the season. Remember last year when the Packers lost to the Saints 38-3 in Week 1? Green Bay went on to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Will that happen again this year? I am not sure, but I do know that the Packers are better than they showed last Sunday.

Green Bay is also hosting the Bears, which is the perfect opponent for the Packers to bounce back against. Aaron Rodgers is 23-5 against Chicago in his career and 21-7 against the spread in those games. He is also on a six-game win and cover streak against the Bears. Chicago got the win last week, but factoring in the elements, I am not buying the Bears in this game as 9.5-point underdogs.

 

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