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NFL Strength of Schedule for 2nd Half of 2022 Season – Ravens Have an Easy Path

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Updated Nov 9, 2022 · 3:59 PM PST

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Aug 27, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) talks on the sidelines with Nickelodeon correspondent George Johnston IV during the third quarter against the Washington Commanders at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports
  • NFL teams prepare for the second half the season as Week 10 is upon us
  • Check our the NFL strength of schedule for all 32 teams over the second half of the 2022 NFL season
  • The Ravens have the easiest second half schedule, while the Patriots have the toughest

We have officially reached the halfway point of the 2022 NFL season. It has been a real bumpy ride so far as we have watched some perennially good teams struggle mightily and some pretty average teams on paper win a lot of games. Whether the second half of the season remains the same is yet to be seen. What I’m here to provide you with is the path all 32 teams face over the final nine weeks of the season.

Using the NFL strength of schedule calculation I came up with a handful of years ago, I have run the SOS numbers for the second half of the season. You’ll see each team ranked from 1 (toughest remaining schedule) to 32 (easiest remaining schedule) in the table below, with the “NFL SOS” metric displaying the average win total for the eight/nine games on their schedule.

NFL Strength of Schedule for 2nd Half

Rank Team NFL SOS
1 New England Patriots 10.0
2 Green Bay Packers 9.6
3 Cincinnati Bengals 9.5
4 Washington Commanders 9.4
5 Chicago Bears 9.2
T6 Indianapolis Colts 9.1
T6 New York Giants 9.1
T6 Houston Texans 9.1
T6 Jacksonville Jaguars 9.1
10 Denver Broncos 9.0
11 New York Jets 8.9
12 Minnesota Vikings 8.6
13 Buffalo Bills 8.5
T14 Dallas Cowboys 8.4
T14 Arizona Cardinals 8.4
T14 Miami Dolphins 8.4
T14 Cleveland Browns 8.4
T14 Las Vegas Raiders 8.4
T14 Los Angeles Chargers 8.4
T20 Philadelphia Eagles 8.3
T20 San Francisco 49ers 8.3
T20 Detroit Lions 8.3
T20 Tennessee Titans 8.3
T24 Los Angeles Rams 8.2
T24 New Orleans Saints 8.2
T26 Seattle Seahawks 7.9
T26 Pittsburgh Steelers 7.9
T28 Carolina Panthers 7.6
T28 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.6
30 Kansas City Chiefs 7.3
31 Atlanta Falcons 7.1
32 Baltimore Ravens 6.6

My calculation uses the NFL win totals from sportsbooks for each team instead of their current record.

The New England Patriots face the toughest schedule over the second half of the season. Their average opponent is a projected 10-win team. Some of their notable opponents include the Bills (twice), Vikings, and Dolphins, all of whom have win totals of at least 10.5. They also have the Jets and Bengals coming up, whose average win totals are listed at 9.3.

On the other end, the Baltimore Ravens have the easiest second half schedule. Baltimore’s average opponent is just a 6.6-win team. Some of their notable opponents include the Steelers (twice) and Panthers, both of whom have win totals of 5.5 or lower. They also get the Jaguars and Broncos, whose win totals are set at 6.5.

This is especially great news for Ravens fans as Maryland online sports betting is expected to begin before the end of November.

Teams Whose 2nd Half is Much Tougher Than 1st

Denver Broncos

Not only have the Broncos dramatically underperformed versus expectations, but they have done so against a pretty light set of first half opponents. Their average first half opponent was a 7.6-win team. They did not play a single game against a team whose current win total is higher than 9.5.

Three of Denver’s final nine opponents will be teams with live win totals of 11.5 or higher. Two of those games are against the Chiefs—maybe the best team in the league—and the other is the against the Ravens. Their average second half opponent is a nine-win team, which is 1.4 wins higher than the first half.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts average opponent in the first half of the season was just a 7.8-win team. The Chiefs were the only team they played whose average win total is currently 9.5 or higher. New head coach Jeff Saturday is not going to have it so easy in the second half.

Indianapolis has to deal with the Eagles, Cowboys, Vikings, Giants, and Chargers in the second half, all of whom have live win totals of 9.5 or higher. Their average opponent in the second half is a 9.1-win team, which is 1.3 wins higher than their average first half opponent.

Teams Whose 2nd Half is Much Easier Than 1st

Pittsburgh Steelers

Based off live NFL win totals, no team played a tougher first half schedule than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their average opponent was a 10.2-win team. The Steelers did not play a single team with a current win total less than 7.5 in the first nine weeks, and five of those opponents have win totals greater than nine.

It does get easier for Kenny Pickett and company, though. They will only play three games against teams with live win totals greater than 7.5. All three are divisional games with two coming against the Ravens and the other against the Bengals. Pittsburgh’s average opponent in the second half is just a 7.9-win team, which is 2.3 wins lower than the first half.

Detroit Lions

The second-toughest first half schedule belonged to the Lions, whose average opponent was a 10-win team. Four of their eight games came against teams whose win totals are currently listed at 10.5 or higher. Their weakest opponent was a projected 6.5-win team (the Packers).

In the second half, five of Detroit’s nine games come against teams whose win total is 6.5 or lower. They do still have tough games against the Giants, Bills, and Vikings coming up, but their average second half opponent is just an 8.3-win team, which is 1.7 wins lower than the first half.

Bets to Consider Using NFL SOS for 2nd Half

The Patriots are currently 5-4 and on the outside of the NFL playoff picture. They’re only a half-game back of the Chargers for the final wild card spot, but also have to deal with the Bengals, who have the same 5-4 record. Looking to their second half strength of schedule, which is the toughest in the league, I don’t see a ton of wins coming their way.

Four of their final eight games come against teams with win totals of at least 10.5, and only have two games against teams with average win totals lower than nine. The Bengals don’t have it much easier, but I do have more faith in Joe Burrow and company to navigate a tough second half than I do Mac Jones. The Chargers schedule is much lighter than both of theirs and should be able to hold off the Pats.

Things aren’t about to get any easier for the Packers, whose average first half opponent was an 8.9-win team, as their average second half opponent is a 9.6-win team. There’s also this problem that they aren’t very good and are losing a lot of key players to injury—Rashan Gary is done for the season, Romeo Doubs is out 4-6 weeks, and Aaron Jones could miss this weekend’s game.

The Packers get Dallas in Week 10, Philadelphia in Week 12, and then the Dolphins and Vikings in Weeks 16 and 17. I don’t like them to win any of those games, which would leave them with a max of seven potential wins—they’re currently 3-6. Those other four games come against the Titans, who pose a real threat with the Packers struggling to stop the run, Bears, who are becoming much more competitive as they continue working their offense around Justin Fields’ strengths, Rams, who are still the defending champs, and Lions, who just beat Green Bay in Week 9.

I like them to lose at least one of those four.

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