Jaguars Climb in Super Bowl 52 Futures; Eagles Fall Sans Wentz
In case you haven’t been following along, SportsBettingDime.com has been tracking the Super Bowl 52 odds from the moment they came available on February 5th. We updated the odds following each major event during the NFL offseason and have been providing a weekly update since the 2017 NFL season kicked off.
While a handful more teams were eliminated from the playoff race in Week 14 (Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington) we also saw the state of Pennsylvania (Steelers and Eagles) clinch two playoff spots. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have locked up their spots in the postseason, but aren’t necessarily trending in the right direction due to key injuries.
Here’s a run-down of the most significant odds movements in the Super Bowl 52 futures after Week 14, along with our expert advice on how bettors should react to the movement.
Jaguars Trail Only the Patriots and Steelers in AFC
The Jaguars’ Week 14 matchup with the Seattle Seahawks was arguably the franchise’s biggest game in the last decade. Sitting at 8-4, many still doubted whether Jacksonville could hang with the big dogs. But after defeating the Seahawks, a perennial Super Bowl contender, 30-24 on Sunday, that doubt is starting to fade.
Jacksonville entered Week 14 at an average of +2700 to win Super Bowl 52. After the win, they now sit at an average of +1800, and are as low as +1600 . This puts Jacksonville behind only the Patriots (+240) and Steelers (+420) in the AFC.
EXPERT ADVICE: The Jaguars just clinched their first winning season since 2007, and with games against the Texans, 49ers, and Titans remaining, they could very well finish the season 12-4. I know it’s awfully tough to put your faith in a team led by Blake Bortles, but you need to recognize the similarities between the 2017 Jaguars and the 2015 Broncos. You could not/cannot pass against either one due to both the pressure they apply on the passer and their shutdown corners; both teams’ passing offenses are/were average, a result of not fully trusting their respective quarterbacks; and they can/could generate a lot of turnovers.
Going toe-to-toe with the Patriots in a shootout is a tall task, which is why teams like the Chargers and Jaguars have the best chance to keep the Pats from reaching the Super Bowl: their defenses could actually slow Tom Brady. As crazy as it sounds, sprinkling a little on the Jaguars at this price has a lot of value.
Eagles Take a Hit with Carson Wentz’s Torn ACL
In spite of recording a major victory on the road against the Rams and reclaiming the top seed in the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles saw their odds to win Super Bowl 52 take a hit. The longer odds are a consequence of NFL MVP favorite Carson Wentz tearing his ACL in Week 14. Backup pivot Nick Foles was able to produce two fourth-quarter drives that resulted in field goals and the Eagles escaped LA with a win. But online betting sites do not believe Foles is capable of leading this team to the Super Bowl.
Just two weeks ago, the Eagles’ average odds to win Super Bowl 52 were +400. After a loss to the Seahawks in Week 13, and now the loss of Carson Wentz, Philadelphia sits at +890, firmly behind the Vikings (+680) in the NFC. You can find the Eagles odds as long as +1200 and as short as +650.
EXPERT ADVICE: Yeah, I know what I told you last week. But who could have foreseen this happening to Wentz? At this price, it is not worth betting on Nick Foles to maintain the Eagles’ success. Yes, Philadelphia has a great team, but Wentz was playing at an MVP level and doing things on the field that Foles is not capable of. Stay away!
Your best value in the NFC now lies with the New Orleans Saints at +1100. Their dynamic backfield and powerful offensive line allows them to beat you in so many ways, and Drew Brees finally has the backing of a decent defense, something he’s lacked since 2009-10, the year New Orleans won the Super Bowl (not-so-coincidentally).
The Bills Occupy a Playoff Spot, but no one Believes
After defeating the Indianapolis Colts in about a foot of snow, the Buffalo Bills now hold the final playoff spot in the AFC. But you wouldn’t know that by looking at their odds to win Super Bowl 52.
The Bills’ average odds to win Super Bowl 52 sit at +16400, and are still as long as +20000. With two of Buffalo’s final three games coming against the Dolphins, a playoff berth isn’t out of the question. But they’ll likely have to beat the Patriots in New England, as well, to fend off the Chargers/Chiefs and Ravens.
EXPERT ADVICE: Please do not waste any of your money chasing value that isn’t there with Buffalo. Tyrod Taylor is not going to win the Super Bowl. Nathan Peterman is not going to win the Super Bowl. Joe Webb is not even allowed to say the words “Super Bowl.”
The Falcons Reclaim the Final Playoff Spot in the NFC
The Falcons’ 14-9 loss at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings in Week 13 bumped them from the final playoff spot in the NFC. But a 20-17 win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 14, coupled with a Seahawks loss in Jacksonville, has Atlanta back in the second Wild Card spot. That’s sent their average odds to win Super Bowl 52 from +2400 (prior to Week 14) to +1500. Atlanta is as short as +1100, while you can still get the Falcons as long as +1800.
EXPERT ADVICE: This is going to upset Falcons fans, but you everyone needs to hear it: if Alvin Kamara had not gotten hurt on the opening drive of Thursday night’s game, the Falcons would not have won. Although it may seem like Atlanta is finding its stride, winning four of the last five, I advise you not to fall for it.
Atlanta’s offense is a mere shell of what it was last year, and the defense can’t win games on its own, as good as Deion Jones is becoming. With two of their three remaining games coming against the Saints (in New Orleans) and Panthers, it’s reasonable to say that Atlanta may not even make the playoffs. And even if they do, they’ll have to take to the road at some point before the Super Bowl, which will cause more problems for the offense.
Raiders’ Super Bowl 52 Hopes All But Gone
The Oakland Raiders had a golden opportunity on Sunday to further their pursuit of an AFC West title. Jack Del Rio’s headed to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs, losers of their last four and six of seven. But Derek Carr and the Raiders squandered the opportunity, falling behind 26-0 before scoring 15 effectively meaningly fourth-quarter points. The 26-15 defeat pushed Oakland a game back of the Chiefs and Chargers in the division.
The demoralizing loss resulted in a major spike (in the wrong direction) to Oakland’s odds to win Super Bowl 52. Entering the week riding a two-game winning streak, the Raiders average odds were at +3900. After Week 14, they sit at +12200. If you’re looking to bet Oakland, their odds to win Super Bowl 52 are a whopping +20000 at some betting sites.
EXPERT ADVICE: The Oakland Raiders are a bad team. They only have six wins on the year because of a light schedule. There is no way their defense is slowing the Patriots or Steelers, and the sputtering offense will not match them on the scoreboard. This would be a terrible bet, as Oakland is not even going to make the playoffs.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
