- Buffalo is a +600 favorite to win Super Bowl LVII on February 12th, 2023
- But which teams offer the best longshot value to win the Super Bowl this year?
- Below, see some intriguing longshot teams to bet on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy
Another NFL season is upon us, with the Buffalo Bills the favorite to win the Super Bowl, followed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Last season, the Cincinnati Bengals shocked the world en route to a Super Bowl appearance against the Los Angeles Rams. A team ranked between 18th and 25th ATS +/- has made the big dance on four of the last seven occasions. Last year, Cincy was ranked 30th in the NFL Power Rankings in that category.
Super Bowl Longshot Picks
There are plenty of teams that could surprise this campaign, and see their Super Bowl odds dramatically decrease should they get off to a hot start. As with any given season in the ultra-competitive NFL, a shocking team could fall short of expectations and miss the postseason altogether.
Dallas Cowboys (+2200)
Stop if you’ve heard this one before – the Dallas Cowboys are talented enough to win the Super Bowl. Cowboys detractors always roll their eyes, given that they haven’t even been to an NFC Championship game since 1995. Objectively, however, they really do boast a strong team.
Last year, Big D led the league in yards per game (407.0 YDS/GP) and was also first in points per contest (31.2). Pro Football Focus had them ranked a respectable 12th in defense led by LB Micah Parsons and CB Trevon Diggs.
Last time the Dallas Cowboys won the Super Bowl:
– Their QB was in Year 7
– LSU lost in their head coach's debut
– The Super Bowl was in Arizona
– Dak Prescott in Year 7
– LSU lost their head coach's debut for the first time since then
– The Super Bowl is in Arizona
— RJ Ochoa (@rjochoa) September 5, 2022
They play in the weak NFC East that sees all three competitors with potentially unsettled QB situations with Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones and Jalen Hurts. They do have two tough initial opponents in Tampa Bay and Cincinnati, but those are at home, then they face two division rivals. Should they get off to a strong start, these Barstool Sportsbook odds will shorten quickly.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys (+2200)
Arizona Cardinals (+4000)
The Arizona Cardinals busted out of the gates in 2021, winning their first seven contests and amassing the league’s best record more than halfway through the season, as they started 10-2. If not for a disastrous finish (losing five of their last, including a Wild Card game), they’d probably have much shorter odds.
They are perhaps listed at +4000 simply because they face a gauntlet of opponents in the Chiefs, Raiders and Rams the first three weeks. If they happen to win at least two of those games, their odds will shorten. Getting off to scorching starts hasn’t been an issue for Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury.
How many rushing touchdowns for Kyler Murray this season? pic.twitter.com/HDK32foKR5
— PHNX Cardinals (@PHNX_Cardinals) September 5, 2022
Armed with a hefty new contract, Kyler Murray enters year four in the league, where he’ll potentially be able to put everything together. Of note, the Super Bowl will be in Arizona next year. Should they win it, they’d be following in the footsteps of the last two Super Bowl winners who each won it on their home soil (Bucs and Rams).
Pick: Arizona Cardinals (+4000)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+8000)
One thing that would be wise would be to never count out a Mike Tomlin-coached Pittsburgh Steelers team. In his 15 years at the helm, he’s never posted a losing season. Last year, he was able to drag the team to the playoffs despite Ben Roethlisberger being in the twilight of his career.
The Steelers had a dreadful offense, ranking fifth-worst (according to PFF). It’s fair to expect newly named starter and former second overall draft pick Mitch Trubisky or 2022 first-round pick Kenny Pickett to fare much better than Big Ben did last season.
#Steelers coach Mike Tomlin names Mitch Trubisky the starting QB, saying, “We're really comfortable with what Mitch has shown us.”
As for rookie Kenny Pickett, he said, “I'm really pleased with the growth and development of Kenny. That's why he's listed as QB2.”
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 6, 2022
Pittsburgh had an above-average defense last year (14th on PFF), with reigning Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt quarterbacking the D. Their schedule sees them against Cincy, the Pats, Browns and Jets in the early going, so a solid beginning is possible and they are worthy of being in your Super Bowl longshots.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (+8000)