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NFL OROY & DROY Odds & Picks – Pickett, Hutchinson Are Favorites

Blair Johnson

by Blair Johnson in NFL Football

Sep 5, 2022 · 6:00 AM PDT

Aidan Hutchinson
Aug 28, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) meets with Detroit Lions defensive lineman Aidan Hutchinson (97) after their game at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
  • Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett is the favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, while Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson is the top choice to win NFL Defensive ROY
  • A slew of first-year receivers are also in the mix on the offensive side, while an eclectic group of contenders on the defensive side
  • Updated odds and analysis below on which players are the best bets

Immediately following the 2022 NFL Draft earlier this year, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett was installed as a +550 favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

The first-year player out of reigning ACC champion Pittsburgh has seen his odds drop slightly to +700 — but he’s still the favorite heading into Week 1.

2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Player Pos Team Odds
Kenny Pickett QB PIT +700
Breece Hall RB NYJ +800
Drake London WR ATL +900
George Pickens WR PIT +1000
Skyy Moore WR KC +1100
Chris Olave WR NO +1100
Kenneth Walker RB SEA +1100
Dameon Pierce RB HOU +1100
Garret Wilson WR NYJ +1200
Alec Pierce WR IND +1200
Jalen Tolbert WR DAL +1200
Treylon Burks WR TEN +1300
Romeo Doubs WR GB +1300
James Cook RB BUF +1400
Christian Watson WR GB +1500
Jahan Dotson WR WAS +1600
David Bell WR CLE +2500
Desmond Ridder QB ATL +2500
Brian Robinson RB WAS +3300
Malik Willis QB TEN +4000

Odds as of September 4 at Barstool Sportsbook

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Pickett Facing Stiff Competition

The Steel City rookie may be the odds-on choice, but he’s facing some factors that could stand in his way of winning this award.

First, it figures fellow former first-round pick Mitchell Trubisky will be given a legit opportunity to succeed under future Hall of Fame head coach Mike Tomlin — who previously had Big Ben as his guy during his entire tenure.

If Trubisky falters early, a possible scenario could see Pickett take over as the starter in Week 4 following Pittsburgh’s mini-bye following a Thursday Night Football game against the Browns in Week 3. The local kid did sparkle during the preseason.

But, the running back position has dominated this award over the last nine seasons, four times. You might think that would open things up for Hall — the next betting choice at +800. But, the player to keep an eye on is Dameon Pierce.

Yes, Houston’s probable overall 2022 game script scenario isn’t super-attractive. But Pierce simply has a nose for the end zone (16 total touchdowns in just 119 touches at Florida last year) and will be the No. 1 back for veteran head coach Lovie Smith entering this season.

According to a poll by NFL.com staff, their top choice was Olave. The talented former Buckeye is proficient with the deep ball — something a healthy Jameis Winson loves to throw.

With defenses focusing on Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, Olave could see lots of 1-on-1 coverage. Pickett’s rookie target Pickens is another possibility. But, fantasy experts love Pierce — and at a somewhat discounted price, so do I.

  • The pick: Dameon Pierce +1100

On the defensive side, Detroit Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson opened as a +400 favorite to earn DROY honors over Jacksonville’s No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker. Over the last four months, those odds haven’t changed drastically — with Hutchinson still the top choice.

2022 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Player Pos Team Odds
Aidan Hutchinson Edge DET +450
Travon Walker Edge JAX +800
Nakobe Dean LB PHI +900
Kyle Hamilton S BAL +900
Kayvon Thibodeux Edge NYG +900
Quay Walker ILB GB +900
Devin Lloyd ILB JAX +1100
Ahmad Gardner CB NYJ +1300
Derek Stingley CB HOU +1300
Jordan Davis DT PHI +1400
Jermaine Johnson Edge NYJ +1600
Kalir Elam CB BUF +2000
George Karlaftis Edge KC +2000
Andrew Booth CB MIN +2500
Drake Jackson Edge SF +2800
Daxton Hill S CIN +3000
Jaquan Brisker S CHI +3300
Lewis Cine S MIN +3300
Logan Hall Edge TB +3300
Trent McDuffie CB KC +3300

Odds as of September 4th at Barstool Sportsbook

Hutchinson vs. the Field

This one is a little harder to handicap, with Hutchinson being the clear favorite. But, the former Wolverine may be benefiting slightly from a “Hard Knocks” bump.

Yes, the Michigan product set a single-season record for his alma mater with 14 sacks in his senior year. But the HBO show has a tendency to inflate prospects for players. Then again, he does have a motor.

Some history to keep in mind when placing bets. No safety has won this award since 1990. Meanwhile since 2009, Missouri’s Sheldon Richardson (2013) is the lone winner from the SEC. A Big Ten player has won five of the last six seasons. And only two cornerbacks have won since 1999.

If it’s not Hutchinson, Thibodeaux could be a sneaky play at +900. He finished his Oregon career with 126 tackles, including 35.5 tackles for loss and 19 sacks across 30 games.

But can he stay on the field? A sprained MCL will likely keep him out Week 1. Considering all the trends, Hutchinson is a solid play.

  • The pick: Aidan Hutchinson +450
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