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Titans’ AFC South Odds Still Available as Long as +300; Is There Value?

Derrick Henry running the football
Can Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans win the AFC South? Photo By Mario957 (Wiki Commons) [CC License].
  • The Tennessee Titans have won five of their last six games
  • During the Titans’ current three-game winning streak, their odds to win the AFC South have gone from +1100 down to +300
  • The Titans are scoring 29.7 points per game with Ryan Tannehill starting after averaging 16.3 with Marcus Mariota

The change from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill has sparked the Tennessee Titans. They have now won five of their last six games and are in the running to win the AFC South. They’ve moved up the board in terms of the AFC South odds, now sitting at +300.  Are they worth a bet here or will they fall short?

2019 AFC South Odds

Team Odds to Win AFC South
Houston Texans -300
Tennessee Titans +300
Indianapolis Colts +1400

Odds taken Dec. 2 from BetOnline. 

Titans Are On A Roll

The Titans improved to 7-5 on Sunday with a big win at Indianapolis. For a while, the Colts had been neck and neck with the Texans in the South, but this loss pushes them down a peg and moves the Titans up. Considering the Titans lost 19-17 at home to the Colts earlier in the year, this win was a clear sign of progress.

Tennessee has been a completely different team ever since Tannehill took over for Mariota. Under Mariota, the Titans had averaged just 16.3 points per game and lost four of their first six. Under Tannehill, the team has won five of six while averaging 29.7 points per contest and now find themselves in playoff contention.

Titans Odds Shorten To +300

As you can imagine, the Titans’ odds to win the AFC South have shifted around quite a bit as they’ve gone from being a complete mess to being a postseason contender. They were at +1000 to win the AFC South after they dropped to 2-4 and as long as +1100 after enduring their only loss with Tannehill (on November 3rd).

However, they’ve consistently shortened ever since as the team is now as short as +275 at certain sportsbooks. The Titans are now just one game back of Houston for the lead in the South and they’ll still face them twice. Those matchups should decide who wins the division.

Can Titans Top The Texans?

Tennessee needs to makeup at least one game in the standings and it won’t be easy. They have a tough schedule, travelling to Oakland this week, which is 5-1 at home, and will host the Saints, as well, who are 10-2 overall.

Sandwiched in between will be a visit from the Texans in Week 15 and a visit to Houston in Week 17.

The key for the Titans will be running the ball as that’s the foundation of their success on offense. The Texans are generous in that regard as they give up 111.1 rushing yards per game. They also allow 4.6 yards per carry, which is the ninth-worst mark.

At the same time, Titans running back Derrick Henry has never played well against the Texans. In six career outings, he’s averaged just 46.0 rushing yards per game. He’ll have to do much better than that if the Titans are to sweep the Texans in those two games.

And a sweep will likely be necessary as the Texans not only have a one-game lead but also have the easier of the two schedules. While the Titans will face Oakland and New Orleans – two games where they’ll probably be either very small favorites or underdogs – the Texans have a much easier draw.

Houston gets to host the Denver Broncos this week, who will have rookie quarterback Drew Lock making his first career road start. Houston is currently a 10-point favorite. In Week 16, the Texans will visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are a tricky opponent but are just 5-7 overall.

At the end of the day, I’d bet the Texans to win this division. I expect the teams to split, which means the Titans have to make up a game elsewhere. I don’t see that happening given that they have the tougher of the two schedules.

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