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Tom Brady Props: Over/Unders for Passing Yards & TDs Set Pretty Low

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Aug 17, 2019 · 7:59 PM PDT

Tom Brady throwing a deep ball
At 42 years old, can Tom Brady keep up his incredible level of production? Photo by Brook Ward (flickr).
  • At 42 years old and entering his 20th season, Tom Brady is still going strong
  • After throwing for 29 touchdowns and over 4,300 yards last season, oddsmakers are projecting similar totals in 2019
  • Will Brady be able to put up big stats this year or will the Pats lean more on the ground game?

Let us never doubt the merits of the TB12 method again. Last season, not only did Tom Brady set new heights for ancient quarterbacks, but he added a Super Bowl ring to that lonely left hand after filling up the right.

So while there is no reason to think Brady’s production will nose dive heading into his 20th season, oddsmakers also aren’t expecting any MVP caliber numbers from the 42-year-old.

Tom Brady Passing Odds

Prop  Line  Over Odds  Under Odds
Regular Season Passing TDs 29.5 +100 -130
Regular Season Passing Yards 4150 -115 -115

*Odds from 16/08/19.

Can Brady keep up his production or is Father Time finally gonna catch him?

No Gronk, Some Problem

While Rob Gronkowski wasn’t a large focus of the Patriots offense in his final season, he will be missed by Brady, especially in the red zone.

Since 2010, there have only been three seasons that Brady threw less than 30 touchdowns: all were times when Gronk missed significant time with injury.

Tom Brady Passing Stats

Season Yards Touchdowns
2013 4343 25
2014 4109 33
2015 4770 36
2016* 3554 28
2017 4577 32
2018 4355 29

*Brady missed four games due to suspension. In every other season, he started all 16 games.

Unable to rely on their big target often last season, the Pats leaned on a pair of playmaking running backs in the red zone instead.

When they weren’t thumping with Sony Michel, New England was finding ways to get James White the ball in space.

But beyond White, it’s hard to see what receivers Brady can consistently lean on in the red zone.

I would take the under on his touchdowns. But keep in mind, Brady has made doubters eat their words for the past two decades, so I won’t be betting a ton.

Pick: Under (-130)

What About Yardage?

In the modern NFL, if you’re a good quarterback that starts all 16 games, you should easily top 4,000 yards passing in a season. Hell, despite everyone bashing the Giants offense all last year, Eli Manning had 4,299 passing yards in 2018.

With Dante Scarnecchia coaching up the Patriots offensive line, you know Brady will be kept relatively clean all season. As long as his 42-year-old body can still absorb a few hits here and there, he’ll be under center for as many games as New England needs. And with the AFC looking pretty competitive once again, the Pats will likely need all 17 weeks to clinch home-field.

As for who will provide these air yards this season, New England got some good news this week, after Josh Gordon was reinstated by the NFL.

Gordon and Brady were developing a nice rapport last year before the receiver’s umpteenth suspension.

Josh Gordon’s return gives the Pats a reliable deep option (until N’Keal Harry can prove himself) to go along with Julian Edelman and White making plays underneath. Take the over on his yardage in 2019.

Pick: Over (-115)

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