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Tua a Top 10 Contender in NFL MVP Odds; Wilson & Burrow Hanging Around

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Sep 19, 2022 · 6:13 AM PDT

NFL MVP odds
Sep 18, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) drops back to pass during the first half against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
  • Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes is the +400 NFL MVP chalk following Week 2 Sunday action
  •  Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa saw his odds shorten from +4000 to +1800
  • Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow continued to fade, going from +1600 to +1800 as the Bengals dropped to 0-2

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the 2018 NFL MVP, led the Chiefs to a 27-24 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC West matchup.

Mahomes saw his betting line shorten for the second straight week. His NFL MVP odds went down to +400 from +500.

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen, the favorites in the Super Bowl odds, is next at +450. The biggest mover and shaker of Week 2 was Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa. After leading the Dolphins to a stunning 42-38 comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens, Tua jumped right into the MVP conversation. His odds were at +4000. Today he’s at +1800.

2022 NFL MVP Odds

Player (Team) Odds
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) +400
Josh Allen (Bills) +450
Justin Herbert (Chargers) +800
Lamar Jackson (Ravens) +1000
Jalen Hurts (Eagles) +1400
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) +1400
Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) +1800
Tom Brady (Buccaneers) +1800
Joe Burrow (Bengals) +2200
Kirk Cousins (Vikings) +2200
Kyler Murray (Cardinals) +2200
Matthew Stafford (Rams) +3000
Derek Carr (Raiders) +3500
Russell Wilson (Broncos) +5000
Justin Jefferson (Vikings) +6000
Jameis Winston (Saints) +6000
Derrick Henry (Titans) +6000
Jonathan Taylor (Colts) +6000
Cooper Kupp (Rams) +8000
Matt Ryan (Colts) +10000
Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) +10000
Mac Jones (Patriots) +10000

Odds as of September 19 at Caesars Sportsbook. See the available Caesars Sportsbook promo code before wagering

It’s Mahomes, Allen and Justin Herbert in the top three of the NFL MVP odds in the table above after Week 2.


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When the NFL MVP future book was first released in February, Mahomes and two-time reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers were the co-favorites.

Tua Turns In Historic Performance

Rallying Miami with four fourth-quarter TDs, Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns in the win over the Ravens. The only other Dolphins QB to garner 400+ passing yards and 5+ TD passes in a game is Dan Marino.

Tua’s second half would’ve made for a great game. He threw for 319 yards and five TDs. It was the first time since 2011 that a team rallied from a deficit of 21+ points in the fourth quarter. In those 11 years, teams in this scenario had gone 0-711 prior to Miami’s rally.

Interestingly, Tagovailoa’s opposite number, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, also saw his line shorten in this betting market following Week 2. The 2019 NFL MVP, Jackson threw for 318 yards and three TDs in the loss. He also rushed for 119 yards and a TD. Jackson’s MVP odds were +1500. He’s now the fourth betting choice at +1000.

Those ready to put Green Bay QB and reigning two-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers out to pasture were dealt a blow on SNF. Leading the Packers to a 27-10 rout of the Chicago Bears, the four-time MVP was 19-of-24 for 234 yards, two TDs and a passer rating of 131.1. Rodgers saw his MVP betting line shorten from +1800 to +1400.

Past NFL MVPs Slip Sliding Away

A pair of former MVPs are already sliding out of the race just two weeks into the season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2-0, but Tom Brady, their 45-year-old QB, hasn’t been impressive. His passer rating is just 82.8. Three-time NFL MVP Brady has thrown for 402 yards and two TDs against one interception.

Last year’s AFC champions, the Cincinnati Bengals are 0-2 and QB Joe Burrow’s MVP stock is plummeting. His passer rating is a dismal 73.1 with three TDs and four picks. Burrow skidded from +1600 to +2200 in the NFL MVP odds.

So much for Matt Ryan being the solution to the Colts’ QB woes. An 0-1-1 start to the season sent the former NFL MVP’s odds spiraling down to +10000. He’d been at +6000.

Pity Russell Wilson. The Denver QB is carrying around the weight of Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett. In two weeks, Hackett’s inability to make decisions is already establishing his credentials as one of the worst hiring decisions in league history. Wilson’s MVP odds tanked from +1500 to +5000 as Denver sits 1-1.

Injuries Again a Factor

Listing at +4000 entering Week 2, San Francisco 49ers first-year starting QB Trey Lance was always going to be an NFL MVP long shot. Today, he’s not even a factor.

Carted off the field during the 49ers-Seattle Seahawks game, Lance will be undergoing season-ending surgery to repair a broken ankle.

During the big Chiefs-Chargers showdown with AFC West odds implications, LA QB Justin Herbert suffered fractured rib cartilage. This isn’t nearly as bad as a broken bone, though.

Expectations are that Herbert could be back at practice this week. However, it’s a significantly painful ailment. How much will it affect his game going forward? Oddsmakers are maintaining faith in the third-year QB. Herbert remains the +800 third betting choice in the NFL MVP future book.

NFL MVP Race Just Getting Started

At this stage of NFL MVP betting, only the bold are going big with their bets. Gut feelings and past performances will be the driving forces behind any major decisions. As Lance, Herbert and Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys (thumb surgery) are showing, injuries can take a contender down quickly.

If you’re going to place a wager at this stage, best to go small and wise. Mahomes is never going to be a bad play. Ditto for Allen. And if you think Tua is the real deal, get in on him while the getting is good.

In reality, though, giving it a couple more weeks to assess before making a major play is probably the wisest betting strategy.

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