T.Y. Hilton’s Odds to Lead NFL in Receiving Yards Goes from +1200 to +2000, Odds to Lead in TDs Fades to +4000

• Hilton had his worst offensive season with Brissett
• Four-time Pro Bowler was 12^th overall in receiving yards last year
• Colts star WR has never hit double-digits in TD catches in a single season

Earlier this month, Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton was asked if this training camp has been the best of his eight-year career.

“I would think so, yeah,” said Hilton, who opened camp catching a jaw-dropping 29 of 30 targets.

Heading into the 2019-20 NFL season with high expectations, Hilton’s stock took a major hit on Saturday following news that QB Andrew Luck is retiring after six seasons in the league.

Hilton opened as a +1200 favorite to lead the league in receiving yards — a feat the four-time Pro Bowl player accomplished in 2016. However, following Luck’s retirement press conference Hilton slipped to +2000.

2019-20 Most Regular Season Receiving Yards

Odds taken 08/25/2019

The same applies to Hilton’s chances of leading the NFL in TD receptions. After opening at +3300, Hilton’s odds  dropped to +4000 following news that Luck was retiring.

With Jacoby Brissett now the No. 1 quarterback in Indianapolis, is there any reason to believe Hilton can lead the NFL in either reception yards or TD catches?

Brissett started 15 of 16 games for the Colts in 2017 while Luck was sidelined for the entire season. It also happened to be one of Hilton’s worst seasons statistically.

T.Y. Hilton 2017 and 2018 Stats With Brissett vs. Luck

Hilton played all 16 games but failed to surpass 1,000 or more receiving yards — a mark he was able to reach with ease from 2013 to 2016 with Luck throwing the ball to him. Hilton also had a career-low four TD catches in 2017 with Brissett as the starting quarterback despite making up 23% of the team’s throwing targets that season.

In 2018, Hilton had a solid season, playing all but two games because of a nagging ankle injury. The 29-year-old still managed to finish 12^th in receiving yards (1,270).

Andrew Luck's last touchdown pass was thrown to TY Hilton in the Divisional Round of the 2018/19 NFL season.
#NFLBrasil #NFL100 pic.twitter.com/uchr6HbuJ6

— Caio Miari (@caiomiari) August 25, 2019

While updated odds suggest Hilton is in for a huge drop-off in offensive production, the 2012 third-round draft pick has enough talent to be a top five receiver.

The question remains can Hilton lead the league in either category?

2019-20 Most Regular Season TD Receptions

Let’s take TD catches out of the equation as Hilton has never been known for producing a lot of touchdowns. In fact, Hilton has never reached double-digits in a single season — his highest was seven in 2012 and 2014.

However, even with Brissett at the helm, Hilton will still be in the discussion to lead the NFL in receiving yards. Brissett has many strong targets to spread the ball around to.

Devin Funchess will get many looks and it’ll be difficult for opposing defenses to ignore tight end Eric Ebron, who is also coming off a career season (750 yards, 13 touchdowns). That should open up some space for Hilton throughout the 2019 regular season.

That said, it’s still crucial that Brissett ups the targets for Hilton. During that 2017 season, Hilton saw just 57 targets — the lowest amount since his rookie season. With Brissett, Hilton did average 16.9 yards per reception in 2017, which is a career-best.

With Hilton’s stock dipping following the news of Luck’s retirement, who are some other strong betting options to lead the NFL in receiving yards and touchdown catches?

https://twitter.com/Stacked_Pickle1/status/1165450358648258560

A strong betting choice to consider is DeAndre Hopkins, whose Houston Texans could very well come out on top in the AFC South with Luck stepping away from the game.

Hopkins who is listed as an enticing +800 favorite, was second in receiving yards (1,572) and finished fifth overall in TD receptions (11) last season. The Deshaun Watson-Hopkins connection is one that the league is going to be familiar with all season long.

https://twitter.com/HoustonTexans/status/1164537708049571840

Adams Favorite to Lead NFL in TD Receptions

Antonio Brown was the league-leader in TD receptions in 2018, but that could change with Derek Carr throwing him the ball in a very difficult AFC West division. Hopkins is another strong candidate here at +850, but the favorite is still Davante Adams of the Green Bay Packers.

Adams is listed at +600 to lead the league in TD receptions after finishing second a year ago with 13 — two behind Brown. Adams was targeted 169 times, which was second behind Jones’ 170 for the league lead.

Since 2016, Davante Adams has

• More receiving yds than Tyreek Hill
• More catches than Mike Evans
• More TD’s than Julio Jones &
Jarvis Landry combined#WR1 | @tae15adams | #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/el4OyIr9ql

— IKE Packers Podcast (@IKE_Packers) August 18, 2019

If you plan to put your money on Hilton to lead the league in receiving yards, consider waiting a week or two to get a sense of the chemistry he has with Brissett.

Pick: NFL leader in receiving yards (DeAndre Hopkins, +800), NFL leader in TD receptions (Davante Adams, +600)