Vikings’ Odds to Win NFC Continue to Fade; Is There Any Value?

• The Minnesota Vikings missed the playoffs last season
• Kirk Cousins is now just 4-19 against teams with a winning record
• The Vikings are capable of making a run in the NFC if they get their running game going

The Minnesota Vikings were at about +930 to win the NFC in early April but as we take a look at the board right now, they’ve dropped to about an average of +1200 odds. Are they worth a look in terms of the NFL Conference odds futures or will Kirk Cousins fail to do any serious damage this year? Let’s take a closer look.

2019-20 Odds to Win NFC

Odds taken 7/19/19.

Can Cousins Get It Together Versus Winning Teams?

One of the major reasons people doubt the Vikings is because quarterback Kirk Cousins does not play well against teams with a winning record. For this team to go far in the playoffs and win the NFC, he’s going to have to win multiple games against teams above .500. He’s just 4-19 in that spot in his career.

We know that Cousins can take care of business against teams like the Detroit Lions or Tampa Bay Buccaneers. What about teams like the Green Bay Packers in December? Or the Philadelphia Eagles in the playoffs? Or the Los Angeles Rams? He’s never really stepped up like that, so that’s a concern.

The other issue is that two years ago, Vikings quarterbacks like Case Keenum took lots of shots down the field (and had success) with the Vikings stud wide receivers. He was pressured nearly as much as Cousins but handled it differently. Cousins was far more conservative with throws down the field and couldn’t handle the pressure.

But that’s what Cousins has mostly been as his Pro Football Focus grade was just about the same last year as it’s always been. Yes, the offensive coordinator situation was a complete mess last year, there was no running game and the defense regressed, but a lot of this does fall on Cousins’ shoulders.

Vikings Have a Super Bowl-Caliber Team

Cousins takes plenty of flack and while he does have that shaky history against winning teams, the truth is he doesn’t have to do a lot of this on his own. This roster is Super Bowl-caliber, so he’ll have plenty of help along the way – even if he can’t be better than mediocre.

The Vikings offensive line was in shambles last season but remember that offensive line coach Tony Sparano passed away right before the season and that had a huge impact in the locker room. This year, the Vikings added Garrett Bradbury in the draft, which allows Pat Elflein to move to guard. This unit should be better.

If the offensive line is, in fact, better and the team can run the ball with Dalvin Cook, an oft-injured by Pro Bowl-caliber type of player, Cousins won’t have to do this alone. And with two stud wideouts and weapons like Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. at tight end, this unit could be very good.

As for the defense, they were elite in 2017 and fell off in 2018. Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith – two Pro Bowl-caliber players – were pretty bad last year but they are very good players. Coach Mike Zimmer knows how to coach up the defense, so I wouldn’t worry about this side of the ball too much.

What’s the Best Bet?

Cousins is a still a big question mark in my eyes but to me, it’s all about the running game. If they can finally get Cook going and balance out this offense, then keep the defense on the sidelines resting a lot more, this team will be among the best in the NFC.

Cousins has to take more shots down the field and trust his receivers, and the offensive line needs to improve, but these are all fixes that are possible for the Vikings. There are question marks but the talent is there, so I like them at +1200 to win the NFC.