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Vikings vs Saints Props – Best Team and Player Prop Bets for Week 16

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Dec 24, 2020 · 9:00 AM PST

Alvin Kamara peeking through hands celebration
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) reacts after his touchdown carry in the second half of an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs in New Orleans, Sunday, Dec. 20, 2020. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)
  • Saints still seeking top seed in NFC as they host the Vikings
  • Last week’s props results: 2-3; Season: 29-28; Total: +4.35 units 
  • Read below for our best prop bets for Vikings vs Saints Week 16

We were staggered, but another successful pick to score a TD kept us just below break-even in Week 15.

Enough of this treading water, though, we’ve got two regular season weeks left to make some hay, and there should be a good one in the Bayou, with the desperate Minnesota Vikings trying to cling to their slim playoff hopes against the New Orleans Saints.

New Orleans still has an outside shot of claiming the only first round bye in the conference this year, which currently belongs to the Packers, but they have other fish to fry — namely getting their offense and star QB back into the groove.

We’ll get you set for kickoff with all the betting lines here. But let’s look at prop bets below and make your Christmas wishes come true!

Vikings vs Saints Week 16 Player Props

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Kirk Cousins (MIN) 20.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 246.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -124 | Un +100)
Drew Brees (NO) 23.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 249.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -195 | Un +155)
Running Backs Rush Attempts Rush Yards Rushing + Receiving Yards
Latavius Murray (NO)
8.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 33.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 48.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115)
Alvin Kamara (NO)
N/A 60.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 114.5 (Ov -110 | Un -111)
Dalvin Cook (MIN) 20.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105) 82.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 106.5 (Ov -105 | Un -118)
Kirk Cousins (MIN) N/A 9.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106) N/A
WR / TE / RB Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Justin Jefferson (MIN) 5.5 (Ov +114 | Un -146) 65.5 (Ov -117 | Un -107) 24.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Emmanuel Sanders (NO) 4.5 (Ov +100 | Un -128) 61.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 21.5 (Ov -108 | Un -118)
Dalvin Cook (MIN) 3.5 (Ov +112 | Un -142) 22.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 11.5 (Ov -108 | Un -118)
Adam Thielen (MIN) 4.5 (Ov -104 | Un -122) 58.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 22.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Latavius Murray (NO) 5.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 9.5 (Ov -109 | Un -114) N/A
Alvin Kamara (NO) 5.5 (Ov -164 | Un +128) 45.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 15.5 (Ov -118 | Un -105)
Jared Cook (NO) 3.5 (Ov +145| Un -182) 33.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 17.5 (Ov -105 | Un -118)

Odds taken on December 23 from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM

Kamara Will Come Through

This has to be a get-right game for Drew Brees, who miraculously returned to the lineup after breaking 11 ribs and puncturing his lung after just four weeks being sidelined. He didn’t look great, going a pedestrian 15-for-34 for 234 yards and two scores in a loss to the Chiefs.

Sean Payton knows for the Saints to make noise in the postseason, he’s got to roll with Brees, but not if the 40-something pivot can’t move his offense. Which is a long way of saying, if Brees wants to look good, then give the ball to Alvin Kamara, and let the talented back spin.

Kamara hasn’t broken 100 total yards from scrimmage in the last six weeks, and he’s also gone under the receiving yardage total in this one in six of his last seven contests, but he’s going against a bottom-10 defense in yards. The Vikings surrender better than 250 yards passing a game, which is ninth-worst, and Kamara should be involved heavily here. He’s gone for better than 51 yards receiving in his last six games as the home favorite, and should make it seven.

The pick: Kamara OVER 45.5 yards receiving (1.5 units to win 1.83 units)

What Viking Receiver Shines?

Perhaps the only saving grace with Stefon Diggs lighting the league on fire in Buffalo is that the Vikings essentially replaced him with one of the best young receivers in football in rookie Justin Jefferson. He should figure prominently on Christmas, as the Saints will be plenty busy trying to contain Dalvin Cook.

Jefferson has gone over his reception line in three of the last four games and four of his last six, a span that has seen him receive no less than eight targets in five of six games. If the Saints’ top-rated rush defense (fourth in the NFL, surrendering under 97 yards a game) walls up the run game, Kirk Cousins will have to start airing it out. Adam Thielen may be his most reliable target, but Jefferson is his volume guy … in catches and emotion.

And hey, while we’re here, I have stared at minuscule QB rushing totals all season and thought nothing of it, only to watch them break the pocket too many times and cash in early. Cousins’ rush line is absurd, considering he’s gone four straight games running for 10 or more yards. I’m not letting another one of these lines pass me by.

The picks:

Jefferson OVER 5.5 receptions (1 units to win 1.14 units) 

Cousins OVER 9.5 yards rushing (0.5 units to win .425 units)

Vikings vs Saints Scoring Props

Team Odds to Score 1st TD Odds to Score Any TD
Alvin Kamara (NO)
+450 -225
Dalvin Cook (MIN) +600 -155
Justin Jefferson (MIN) +1000 +125
Adam Thielen (MIN) +1000 +125
Emmanuel Sanders (NO) +1100 +150
Jared Cook (NO)
+1200 +175
Taysom Hill (NO) +1200 +165
Tre’Quan Smith (NO)
+1200 +175
Latavius Murray (NO) +1600 +250
Lil’Jordan Humphrey (NO) +2200 +350
Juwan Johnson (NO) +2200 +350
Irv Smith Jr. (MIN)
+2200 +350
Kyle Rudolph (MIN)
+2800 +400
Drew Brees (NO)
+4000 +700

Who Finds Paydirt?

You can’t go wrong with either Dalvin Cook or Kamara to score, but if you’re looking for value (aren’t we always?), then look at Thielen, who has scored touchdowns in four of his last games, accompanied with his goofy TD dance celebration.

And after Jared Cook and Brees weren’t in the same ballpark against KC, I think that pairing also could bear fruit after a week of practice. With Michael Thomas on IR, Brees’ list of reliable targets is thinned, and Cook could be the beneficiary.

The picks: 

Thielen to score anytime TD (0.5 units to win 0.625 units)

Cook to score anytime TD (0.5 units to win 0.875 units)

 

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