Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread
- This week our expert NFL ATS picks have selections from eight different games on Sunday
- Can the Bucs cover as big road underdogs? Will the Dolphins and Cowboys cover as huge home favorites?
- Get all of our top NFL picks against the spread from these games and more here
In this week’s edition of our SBD Expert NFL picks against the spread we have picks coming from eight different games including the Arizona Cardinals making the cut for two of three experts. Elsewhere, we’re backing some big favorites covering, Josh Dobbs staying hot in Denver and Dorian Thompson-Robinson and the Browns coming out on top over Kenny Pickett and the Steelers.
Read on for all of our top Week 11 NFL picks against the spread here.
NFL Expert Picks Today
| Ryan Metivier | Bob Duff | Zach Reger |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins -13 | Lions -7.5 | Browns -1.5 |
| Cowboys -10.5 | Titans +7 | Cardinals +6 |
| Cardinals +6 | Vikings +2.5 | Buccaneers +12 |
| Record: 10-17-3 | Record: 9-20-1 | Record: 14-14-2 |
Our most popular Week 11 NFL picks against the spread come in on the Arizona Cardinals going into Houston and covering as 6-point underdogs.
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Ryan Metivier
Dolphins (-13)
Miami is 0-3 versus teams with a winning record this season. Their six wins have all come against teams with losing records. In fact those teams, including two games versus the Patriots, have a combined record of 15-42.
The Raiders are neither a winning or losing team at 5-5 so what do we do here? Well, I’m not putting much stock in wins over the Tommy DeVito-led Giants and Zach Wilson-led Jets. The Raiders should end the season as a losing team.
And they should be put back on that path this weekend. They’ve already lost games this season by 28, 18, 12 points on the road. At home, Miami has already routed some teams by 50, 15, 21 and 14 points. Throw in the fact that Tua Tagovailoa is 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS as a favorite of seven points or more, and we’ll back another Miami blowout for our Week 11 NFL picks against the spread.
Cowboys (-10.5)
The Cowboys beat up on bad teams too. They have wins over the Giants (40-0), Jets (30-10), Patriots (38-3), Rams (43-20) and Giants again last week (49-17).
This just in, the Panthers are a bad team. They’re 1-8 SU and 1-6-2 ATS.
They have losses to the Falcons (24-10), Seahawks (37-27), Lions (42-24), Dolphins (42-21) and Colts (27-13).
In the past three weeks the Panthers have scored 13, 13 and 15 points. That’s not enough to hang with Dak and Cowboys who are averaging a tick shy of 30 PPG (29.9) as the league’s second-highest-scoring team.
Cardinals (+6)
Ok those first two are fun bets, betting on good teams to smash bad teams. This next one is sorta ugly, going against the potential rookie of the year and Houston.
The public is coming in hard on the Texans in the NFL public betting splits pushing this number up to Houston -6. But it’s been bouncing from around -5.5 to -4 and now back up to -6.
Which makes sense as we’ve just seen CJ Stroud throw for 826 yards and six touchdowns in the past two games. The Texans are 2-0 in those games winning 30-27 and 39-37. That still means they’ve allowed 64 points in two games as well.
With Kyler Murray and James Connor back from injury last week the Cardinals also won, 25-23 over Atlanta. Murray threw for 249 yards, ran in a score, Trey McBride had 131 yards receiving and Connor had 73 yards on the ground.
Now while several injured Texans look to be trending in the right direction towards playing on Sunday, 20 players were still listed on their Thursday injury report. That includes key offensive players like RB Dameon Pierce (DNP) and WR Nico Collins (limited), plus S Jimmie Ward (DNP) on the defense.
Houston made do last week but I just think the stock may be a little too high on the Texans right now. And when you consider Murray is 21-12-2 ATS as a dog, that tips the scales in Arizona’s favor for me in my Week 11 ATS picks.
Thursday's Injury Report for #AZvsHOU ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/nF85OE28gQ
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 16, 2023
Bob Duff
Lions (-7.5)
With a win at home Sunday over Chicago, Detroit will be 8-2 in an NFL season for the first time since 1962. That was so long ago, JFK was in the White House. Detroit is 15-5 ATS in the club’s past 20 home games.
The Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a win. Chicago is also 2-12 ATS in the past 14 games against NFC North opposition. Even with QB1 Justin Fields is back from his dislocated thumb, it’s still difficult to locate a reason to bet the Bears.
Titans (+7)
The Jaguars, who were 5-0 ATS in the five games to last Sunday’s home debacle against San Francisco, didn’t just lose the game. They lost the plot. Jacksonville is 3-7 ATS in the past 10 meetings with Tennessee.
As Titans coach, Vrabel is 29-21-1 ATS as a betting underdog. Tennessee is 8-5 ATS through the past 13 games against AFC South opponents. The Titans covered as 6-point underdogs in a 20-16 loss at Jacksonville last season.
Vikings (+2.5)
The Vikings have won and covered in five straight and six of the last seven. They haven’t missed a beat with Joshua Dobbs at QB. He’s 2-0 straight up and ATS. Add to that the fact that expectations are Justin Jefferson, the NFL’s best WR, will be activated for this game.
As impressive as Denver’s three-game run of success is, this isn’t a team that fares well with prosperity. The Broncos are 2-12-1 ATS the last 15 times they kicked off as the betting chalk.
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Zach Reger
Browns (-1.5)
Even with Deshaun Watson out, the Browns should win this one at home. Cleveland has played without Watson this season and has found ways to win. The Steelers have been outgained in every single game this season, but have still found ways to win. This will be a much more difficult task against this Browns defense in Cleveland.
The Browns want to run the ball, and they should have success against Pittsburgh’s rush defense. No matter who plays at quarterback, I like the Browns to get revenge against their AFC North rival.
The ONLY team in NFL history to be outgained in each of their first 9 games of a season to have a winning record…
The 2023 6-3 Pittsburgh Steelers pic.twitter.com/1ipidDuEpq
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 12, 2023
Cardinals (+6)
The Houston Texans have been the talk of the league after beating the Bengals last week, and rightfully so. Despite how well they have been playing, I am not comfortable laying six points with them in any game.
Kyler Murray returned for the Cardinals last week and played well. Even before Murray’s return, the Cardinals have played tough and have kept games close. I see this game coming down to a field goal, so I like getting six points with Arizona.
Buccaneers (+12)
The 49ers are back. They destroyed the Jaguars last week after getting some key guys back from injury after the bye. That is all true. However, 12 points against the Buccaneers is a ton of points. Tampa Bay is 6-3 against the spread and has covered in each of their road games this season. Tampa Bay also took care of business last week coming off their bye with a big win against Tennessee.
San Francisco should win this game, but Tampa has the talent to keep this one within 12 points. The 49ers also have a big divisional matchup against the Seahawks next Thursday that they might be looking ahead to.
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Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
