Week 16 NFL Upset Picks – Underdogs Showing Value
- See which Week 16 teams we think can cash your NFL underdog tickets this weekend
- The Falcons are just 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season. Can the Colts upset on the road?
- Check out our favorite Week 16 NFL upset picks below
Can the Falcons reverse a trend that sees them struggle as a favorite? What of Justin Fields who has never been favored by this many points? Or the Miami Dolphins who still have no wins against winning teams? We’re breaking down these matchups and making our top Week 16 NFL upset picks here.
NFL Week 16 Upset Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Pick | Units Risked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts vs Falcons | ATL -2.5 | IND +125 | IND | 1 unit |
| Cardinals vs Bears | CHI -4 | ARZ +180 | ARZ | 1 unit |
| Cowboys vs Dolphins | MIA -1 | DAL -105 | DAL | 1 unit |
Our Week 16 NFL upset picks will include plays on the Colts (+125), Cardinals (+180) and Cowboys (-105). Odds from ESPN Sportsbook. Right now you can get $250 in bonus bets at ESPN BET by using promo code ‘DIME’ at sign-up and making a $10 bet on the NFL this weekend! Click the banner below to get started.
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Week 16 NFL Upset Picks
The road is where the money is this week in our NFL underdog picks. Atlanta is not to be trusted in a favorite’s role and neither are the Bears. Meanwhile, the Cowboys and Dolphins game looks like a shootout and a coinflip, so let’s back the underdog.
NFL Upset Picks 1: Colts Over Falcons
The Colts were favored at -2.5 in the NFL odds earlier this week but that has since switched to Atlanta -2.5.
Atlanta just lost 9-7 to the previously 1-12 Carolina Panthers. That’s not good.
Versus the Colts, there is a path to success. Atlanta is ninth in rushing yards per game, averaging 126.4. Indy generally struggles against the run ranking 26th, giving up 127.4 YPG. But they did contain Pittsburgh’s run game last week giving up just 73 yards.
Atlanta as a favorite is just not the spot you want to take them in. They’re 2-8 ATS in that spot this season.
Colts’ WR Michael Pittman is questionable with a concussion but has put in some limited practice time this week. But they do get back RB Jonathan Taylor this week. The Colts have scored 30, 14, 31 and 27 points the past four weeks. Anything close to that could be enough for the upset win over an Atlanta team averaging 18.4 PPG (26th).
NFL Upset Picks: Colts (+125)
From The Insiders on #NFLPlus: It's looking good for the #Colts and RB Jonathan Taylor (thumb) this week… pic.twitter.com/Hjeo0jKwAH
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 21, 2023
NFL Upset Picks 2: Cardinals Over Bears
Who are the Bears to be favored by 4-points against anyone? They have wins in three of five but one was versus the Panthers, one was a big divisional revenge game at home to the Lions and the third against Josh Dobbs and the Vikes, and still by just a 12-10 score. Chicago is still 5-9 SU overall.
The Bears have covered three straight spreads but in this range, at 4-points, is uncharted territory for Justin Fields. Fields has actually never been favored by more than three points in his career.
Overall, he is 13-21-1 ATS and just 1-3-0 ATS as a favorite.
His counterpart, Kyler Murray excels in the underdog role being 23-13-2 ATS. The Cardinals lost 45-29 to San Fran last week and are just 3-11, but still hung around for most of the game and won 24-10 in Pittsburgh the week prior.
Chicago’s last five games have been decided by 3, 15, 2, 5 and 3 points. They’ve gone Under the total in 6/7 recent games.
I don’t think there’s much between these teams so I’ll take the value in the Cardinals for these Week 16 underdog picks.
NFL Upset Picks: Cardinals (+180)
Justin Fields’ QB situation is ranked in the bottom 5 out of 32 possible teams.
The ranking takes into account O-line pass blocking, weapons, and play calling. Bears have the worst ranked playcalling.
Justin Fields deserves another year. pic.twitter.com/aAxAakKi0Z
— 🗽Sam (@PolesIsHim) December 21, 2023
NFL Upset Picks 3: Cowboys Over Dolphins
This should be the game of the weekend, maybe not of the week, with Ravens-49ers taking place on MNF, but still an exciting game. The oddsmakers agree with the total set at 49.5 at ESPN BET, the highest total of Week 16 in the football betting odds,
These are the two top scoring offenses in the league with Miami 1st (31.5 PPG) and Dallas 2nd (30.8 PPG).
A win here for either team would buck a season-long trend for both. And that’s the trend of beating up only on losing teams.
Dallas is 10-4, but only a win over division rival Philadelphia came versus a team with a winning record, prior to the Rams win this week on TNF pushing them to 8-7. Otherwise, the Seahawks are 7-7 and all of their other wins came versus sub-500 opponents.
Miami is 10-4 as well but they’re even worse in this trend with only a 70-20 route of the now 7-7 Broncos, coming against a team with a non-losing record.
Both need a win as they try to win their respective divisions but Miami could be a little fat and happy after a 30-0 route of the Jets last week. Dallas just got embarrassed 31-10 in Buffalo so should be focused to rebound here. Plus, they’re 8-0 ATS in the past three years when allowing 30 or more points the game prior. And while Miami should get Tyreek Hill back, each of their starting offensive linemen have been listed on the injury report at some point this week and four still currently are.
NFL Upset Picks: Cowboys (-105)
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Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
