Game 6 Lightning vs Canadiens Prediction, Odds & Start Time (May 1)

• Montreal brings a 3-2 series lead into Game 6 against Tampa Bay tonight on home ice
• I’m predicting a goaltending duel, bringing under 5.5 goals squarely into play
• Get my Game 6 Lightning vs Canadiens prediction below, along with the odds and start time for the May 1st showdown

The Tampa Bay Lightning look to stave off elimination against the Montreal Canadiens tonight, as the series shifts back to Montreal. The Habs hold a 3-2 series edge, but online sportsbooks are siding against them in the NHL odds. Personally, I don’t see much value on either side, and will be choosing to bet the total instead.

Get my Game 6 Lightning vs Canadiens prediction below, along with the latest odds and start time for the May 1st showdown.

Game 6 Lightning vs Canadiens Prediction

• Under 5.5 Goals (-108 at DraftKings)

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My favorite bet in this contest is under 5.5 goals. Through five games, this series has been an absolute grind, with the Canadiens barely edging out the Lightning 14-13 in total goals. With the margin for error razor-thin in the neutral zone and beyond, my primary game prediction leans heavily on a low-scoring affair.

The defensive intensity has ratcheted up in this series, and the betting trends strongly point toward a defensive battle tonight. Under 5.5 has been an absolute lock recently. The over has failed to hit in each of the last four games in this series, with all four games ending with identical 3-2 scores.

With Jakub Dobes turning away 121 of 134 shots for a .903 save percentage in the playoffs, and Andrei Vasilevskiy fighting to keep his team’s season alive, expect a tight, 5-on-5 checking game that easily stays under the 5.5-goal total.

Lightning vs Canadiens Playoff Stats

Dobbs has been most impressive when his team is down a man, making 30 crucial saves on 34 total shorthanded shots against. As for Vasilevskiy, he’ll need to improve his play at even strength. He’s managed just an .880 overall save percentage while conceding 14 goals during 5-on-5 play. High-danger chances and relentless traffic have taken a toll, inflating his GAA to 2.68. He has made 27 saves on 32 shorthanded shots against this postseason, and will need to deliver a vintage postseason performance to keep playoff hopes alive tonight.

Elsewhere, the Canadiens are out-hitting the Lightning by nearly 10 hits per game (41.6 to 32) and stepping into shooting lanes with 18 blocked shots per contest. They are perfectly content to absorb pressure, protect the middle of the ice, and force low-percentage outside shots.

A victory tonight would set up a Round 2 date in the NHL Playoff Bracket for Montreal with the winner of the Bruins/Sabres series. Montreal entered the postseason with much longer Stanley Cup odds than the Lightning, but so far have looked like the better team.

Game 6 Lightning vs Canadiens Odds

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If you want to tail my pick tonight, make sure you have access to multiple betting sites to get the best Game 6 Lightning vs Canadiens odds. At the time of writing, Bet365 is offering the top price on under 5.5 goals at -108 odds.

If you want to chase an outright winner, visit Caesars to back the Bolts at -110, and Bet365 to bet the Habs at -105 odds.

Game 6 Lightning vs Canadiens Start Time

Puck drop for Game 6 between the Lightning and Canadiens is set for for 7:00 pm ET from the Bell Centre, in Montreal, QC. ESPN2 will have the coverage across the US, while Sportsnet will broadcast the contest to Canadian viewers.